Professor Christl Donnelly CBE FMedSci FRS

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Professor

Contact

Location

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

Summary

In addition to my Imperial role, I am Head of Department and Professor of Applied Statistics in the Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford.

My research programme brings together and develops statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. I have worked on a variety of diseases. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.

Statistical Epidemiology

I use rigorous parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights from dynamical models of disease transmission, demography and interventions.

My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make control strategies as effective as they can be. Without good estimates of epidemiological parameters and knowledge of the associated uncertainty in them, control programmes and preventive measures cannot be designed optimally nor evaluated appropriately.

Such research involves the development of new methods due to the complexities of infectious disease systems – but always driven by the need to answer practical questions. For example:

Who is at greatest risk of SAR-CoV-2 infection right now?
Will culling badgers reduce the incidence of bovine TB in cattle? How might cattle vaccination reduce disease risk within a herd?
How can modified mosquitoes help reduce the risks of dengue?
How many MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) infections have there been been in the Middle East to date?

Through this research, I have provided quantitative scientific advice to government on COVID-19, bovine TB, FMD and TSEs (including BSE, vCJD and scrapie). In this context I served as the deputy chairman of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) advising government on research and overseeing a large randomized trial of badger culling strategies. I am currently on the Royal Statistical Society's COVID-19 Task Force (2020-).

In addition to providing science-based policy advice, I am interested in promoting the public understanding of epidemiology and statistics – making the conclusions from important results accessible to a wide audience.

I was elected Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 2016 and Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci) in 2015. I was an honorary fellow of the ZSL Institute of Zoology.

RBCT map (small)

Randomised Badger Culling Trial areas. Map of proactively culled (shaded), reactively culled (hatched) and unculled survey-only (open) trial areas of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. [Donnelly CA et al. Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature 439, 843-846, 2006.]

Imperial College's short course, "Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology & Control of Infectious Diseases", is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods. For more information please see http://www.InfectiousDiseaseModels.org.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Elliott P, Eales O, Steyn N, et al.Elliott P, Eales O, Steyn N, Tang D, Bodinier B, Wang H, Elliott J, Whitaker M, Atchison C, Diggle P, Trotter A, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Ward H, Darzi A, Cooke G, Donnelly C, Chadeau-Hyam M close, 2022, Twin peaks: the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 and BA.2 epidemics in England

Open Access Link

Elliott P, Bodinier B, Eales O, et al.Elliott P, Bodinier B, Eales O, Wang H, Haw D, Elliott J, Whitaker M, Jonnerby J, Tang D, Walters CE, Atchison C, Diggle PJ, Page AJ, Trotter AJ, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Ward H, Darzi A, Cooke GS, Chadeau-Hyam M, Donnelly CA close, 2022, Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study., Science, Vol:375, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:eabn8347-eabn8347

Elliott P, Haw D, Wang H, et al.Elliott P, Haw D, Wang H, Eales O, Walters C, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Page A, Trotter A, Prosolek S, The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium COG-UK, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Barclay W, Taylor G, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley S close, 2021, Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant, Science, Vol:374, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1-11

Redding DW, Gibb R, Dan-Nwafor CC, et al.Redding DW, Gibb R, Dan-Nwafor CC, Ilori EA, Usman YR, Saliu OH, Michael AO, Akanimo I, Attfield LA, Donnelly C, Abubakar I, Jones KE, Ihekweazu C close, 2021, Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria, Nature Communications, Vol:12, ISSN:2041-1723, Pages:1-10

Riley S, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, et al.Riley S, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Walters CE, Wang H, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle PJ, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P close, 2021, Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: detection by community viral surveillance, Science, Vol:372, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:990-995

Nouvellet P, Bhatia S, Cori A, et al.Nouvellet P, Bhatia S, Cori A, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau N, Cattarino L, Cooper L, Coupland H, Cucunuba Perez Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara A, Dorigatti I, Eales O, van Elsland S, NASCIMENTO F, Fitzjohn R, Gaythorpe K, Geidelberg L, green W, Hamlet A, Hauck K, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jeffrey, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon D, Lees J, Mangal T, Mellan T, Nedjati Gilani G, Parag K, Pons Salort M, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin H, Verity R, Vollmer M, Volz E, Walker P, Walters C, Wang H, Watson O, Whittaker C, Whittles L, Xi X, Ferguson N, Donnelly C close, 2021, Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission, Nature Communications, Vol:12, ISSN:2041-1723

Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, et al.Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Barzon L, Del Vecchio C, Rossi L, Manganelli R, Loregian A, Navarin N, Abate D, Sciro M, Merigliano S, De Canale E, Vanuzzo MC, Besutti V, Saluzzo F, Onelia F, Pacenti M, Parisi S, Carretta G, Donato D, Flor L, Cocchio S, Masi G, Sperduti A, Cattarino L, Salvador R, Nicoletti M, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nieddu E, Labella B, Fava L, Drigo M, Gaythorpe KAM, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Trevisan M, Baldo V, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Dorigatti I, Crisanti A close, 2020, Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo', Nature, Vol:584, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:425-429

Gibb R, Redding DW, Chin KQ, et al.Gibb R, Redding DW, Chin KQ, Donnelly CA, Blackburn TM, Newbold T, Jones KE close, 2020, Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems., Nature, Vol:584, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:398-402

Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al.Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, Baguelin M, Winskill P, Hamlet A, Djafaara BA, Cucunubá Z, Olivera Mesa D, Green W, Thompson H, Nayagam S, Ainslie KEC, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Geidelberg L, Grassly N, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jorgensen D, Knock E, Laydon D, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Unwin HJ, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walters CE, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Lalloo DG, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC close, 2020, The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries, Science, Vol:369, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:413-422

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, et al.Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD close, 2015, Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:372, ISSN:1533-4406, Pages:1274-1277

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, et al.Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Hinsley W, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Iyengar S, Jombart T, Krishnan R, Meijers S, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Perkins D, Riley S, Sagrado M, Schnitzler J, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Varsaneux O, Kannangarage NW close, 2015, West African Ebola epidemic after one year - slowing but not yet under control, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:372, ISSN:1533-4406, Pages:584-587

WHO Ebola Response Team, 2014, Ebola virus disease in West Africa — The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:371, ISSN:0028-4793, Pages:1481-1495

Bielby J, Donnelly CA, Pope LC, et al.Bielby J, Donnelly CA, Pope LC, Burke T, Woodroffe R close, 2014, Badger responses to small-scale culling may compromise targeted control of bovine tuberculosis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol:111, ISSN:0027-8424, Pages:9193-9198

Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, et al.Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM close, 2014, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:14, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:50-56

Godfray HCJ, Donnelly CA, Kao RR, et al.Godfray HCJ, Donnelly CA, Kao RR, Macdonald W, McDonald RA, Petrokofsky G, Wood JLN, Woodroffe R, Young DB, McLean AR close, 2013, A restatement of the natural science evidence base relevant to the control of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol:280, ISSN:0962-8452

Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, 2012, Reduce uncertainty in UK badger culling, Nature, Vol:485, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:582-582

Donnelly CA, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, et al.Donnelly CA, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Olsen SJ, Doshi S, Jackson ML, Kennedy ED, Kamimoto L, Marchbanks TL, Morgan OW, Patel M, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM close, 2011, Serial Intervals and the Temporal Distribution of Secondary Infections within Households of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): Implications for Influenza Control Recommendations, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol:52, ISSN:1058-4838, Pages:S123-S130

Jenkins HE, Aylward RB, Gasasira A, et al.Jenkins HE, Aylward RB, Gasasira A, Donnelly CA, Mwanza M, Corander J, Garnier S, Chauvin C, Abanida E, Pate MA, Adu F, Baba M, Grassly NC close, 2010, Implications of a Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Nigeria., New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:362, ISSN:0028-4793, Pages:2360-2369

Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, et al.Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, Finelli L, Ferguson NM close, 2009, Household Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in the United States, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:361, ISSN:0028-4793, Pages:2619-2627

Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al.Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ, Jombart T, Hinsley WR, Grassly NC, Balloux F, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Bojorquez Chapela I, Palacios Zavala E, Espejo Guevara DM, Checchi F, Garcia E, Hugonnet S, Roth C close, 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, Science, Vol:324, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1557-1561

Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, Cox DR, et al.Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, Cox DR, Bourne FJ, Cheeseman CL, Clifton-Hadley RS, Wei G, Gettinby G, Gilks P, Jenkins H, Johnston WT, Le Fevre AM, McInerney JP, Morrison WI close, 2006, Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle, Nature, Vol:439, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:843-846

Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, Cox DR, et al.Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, Cox DR, Bourne J, Gettinby G, Le Fevre AM, McInerney JP, Morrison WI close, 2003, Impact of localized badger culling on tuberculosis incidence in British cattle, Nature, Vol:426, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:834-837

Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al.Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, Hedley AJ, Leung GM, Ho L-M, Lam T-H, Thach TQ, Chau P, Chan K-P, Lo S-V, Leung P-Y, Tsang T, Ho W, Lee K-H, Lau EMC, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM close, 2003, Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions, Science, Vol:300, Pages:1961-1966

Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, et al.Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Fraser C, Riley S, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ho L-M, Thach T-Q, Chau P, Chan K-P, Lam T-H, Tse L-Y, Tsang T, Liu S-H, Kong JHB, Lau EMC, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM close, 2003, Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, The Lancet, Vol:361, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:1761-1766

Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM, 2001, Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, Nature, Vol:413, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:542-548

Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM, 2001, The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions, Science, Vol:292, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1155-1160

Donnelly CA, 2000, Likely size of the French BSE epidemic - Epidemiological analysis helps in evaluating the potential risks of eating French beef., Nature, Vol:408, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:787-788

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