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@article{Chemla:2019:10.1016/j.jet.2019.07.016,
author = {Chemla, G and Christopher, Hennessy},
doi = {10.1016/j.jet.2019.07.016},
journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
title = {Controls, belief updating, and bias in medical RCTs},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.07.016},
volume = {184},
year = {2019}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - We develop a formal model of placebo e§ects. If subjects in seemingly-ideal single-stage RCTsupdate beliefs about breakthroughs based upon personal physiological responses, mental e§ectsdi§er across medications received, treatment versus control. Consequently, the average cross-arm health di§erence becomes a biased estimator. Constructively, we show: bias can be alteredthrough choice of control; higher-e¢ cacy controls mitigate upward bias; and e¢ cacy states canbe revealed through controls of intermediate e¢ cacy or controls that mimic a subset of e¢ cacystates.  Consistent with experimental evidence, our theory implies outcomes within-arm andcross-arm di§erences can be non-monotone in treatment probability. Finally, we develop noveldi§erences-in-di§erences and triangle equality tests to detect RCT bias.
AU  - Chemla,G
AU  - Christopher,Hennessy
DO  - 10.1016/j.jet.2019.07.016
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0022-0531
TI  - Controls, belief updating, and bias in medical RCTs
T2  - Journal of Economic Theory
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.07.016
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/71883
VL  - 184
ER  -

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