Imperial College London
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Dr Natsuko Imai

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

n.imai Website

 
 
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Location

 

G26Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Cuomo-Dannenburg:2024:10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7,
author = {Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and McCain, K and McCabe, R and Unwin, HJT and Doohan, P and Nash, RK and Hicks, JT and Charniga, K and Geismar, C and Lambert, B and Nikitin, D and Skarp, J and Wardle, J and Kont, M and Bhatia, S and Imai, N and van, Elsland S and Cori, A and Morgenstern, C},
doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7},
journal = {Lancet Infectious Diseases},
pages = {e307--e317},
title = {Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7},
volume = {24},
year = {2024}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Recent Marburg virus disease (MVD) outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this highly lethal infectious pathogen. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345), reported according to PRISMA guidelines, of peer-reviewed papers reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies and epidemiological parameters focused on MVD. We searched PubMed and Web of Science until 31/03/2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts, with consensus-based decision-making. To ensure agreement, 31% (13/42) of studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from MVD. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected MVD outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission and/or cross-reactivity with other pathogens. Only one study presented a mathematical model of MVD transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio for MVD of 61.9% (95% CI: 38.8-80.6%, I^2=93%). We identify important epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history for which there are few estimates. This review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of MVD epidemiology, and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future MVD epidemic responses.
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - McCain,K
AU  - McCabe,R
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Doohan,P
AU  - Nash,RK
AU  - Hicks,JT
AU  - Charniga,K
AU  - Geismar,C
AU  - Lambert,B
AU  - Nikitin,D
AU  - Skarp,J
AU  - Wardle,J
AU  - Kont,M
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Morgenstern,C
DO  - 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7
EP  - 317
PY  - 2024///
SN  - 1473-3099
SP  - 307
TI  - Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review
T2  - Lancet Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309923005157
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/107685
VL  - 24
ER  -
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