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Journal articleMarkonis Y, Vargas Godoy MR, Pradhan RK, et al., 2024,
Spatial partitioning of terrestrial precipitation reveals varying dataset agreement across different environments
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 5The study of the water cycle at planetary scale is crucial for our understanding of large-scale climatic processes. However, very little is known about how terrestrial precipitation is distributed across different environments. In this study, we address this gap by employing a 17-dataset ensemble to provide, for the first time, precipitation estimates over a suite of land cover types, biomes, elevation zones, and precipitation intensity classes. We estimate annual terrestrial precipitation at approximately 114,000 ± 9400 km3, with about 70% falling over tropical, subtropical and temperate regions. Our results highlight substantial inconsistencies, mainly, over the arid and the mountainous areas. To quantify the overall discrepancies, we utilize the concept of dataset agreement and then explore the pairwise relationships among the datasets in terms of “genealogy”, concurrency, and distance. The resulting uncertainty-based partitioning demonstrates how precipitation is distributed over a wide range of environments and improves our understanding on how their conditions influence observational fidelity.
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Journal articleKadelbach P, Weinmayr G, Chen J, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality-Results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.
, Environ Res, Vol: 252Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289,564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5 μg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5 × 10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10 μg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10 μg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.
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Journal articleMartín G, Erinjery J, Ediriweera D, et al., 2024,
Global change effects on snakebite: an assessment of environmental and health sustainability trade-offs in Sri Lanka
, The Lancet Planetary Health, ISSN: 2542-5196 -
Journal articleSmith T, Mishra S, Dorigatti I, et al., 2024,
Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps
, Scientific Reports, ISSN: 2045-2322 -
Journal articleDesouza C, Marsh D, Beevers S, et al., 2024,
Emissions from the construction sector in the United Kingdom
, Emission Control Science and Technology, Vol: 10, Pages: 70-80, ISSN: 2199-3637The UK national atmospheric emissions inventory estimates of construction industry emissions use a top-down approach, based on fuel consumption and employment. It estimates that the sector is the 2nd largest emitter of PM2.5 (14%) and 4th largest emitter of NOX (7%). In this study, we have adopted a bottom-up approach to assess emissions of NOX from the sector and show that emissions are 39% higher than the existing estimates. By developing a novel fleet turnover model to predict the population and emission standard of construction machinery up to 2025, we demonstrate a significant shift in the quantity and types of machines used. The overall uncertainty of the model was calculated to be 55%. Applying the estimated uncertainties to the model, in 2018, the non-road mobile machinery fleet in the UK emitted 36.6 ± 10.0 kilo-tonnes of NOX, whilst the NAEI estimated 33.2 kilo-tonnes for the same sector. For the subsequent years 2019 and 2020, the NAEI estimate was within the model’s uncertainty prediction—28.0 kilo-tonnes compared with 32.7 ± 8.9 kilo-tonnes for 2019 and 23.2 kilo-tonnes compared with 29.5 ± 8.1 kilo-tonnes for 2020. Overall, the size of the non-road mobile machinery fleet in the UK is predicted to reduce by 4% in 2025 compared to 2018. Furthermore, the introduction of Stages IV and V emission regulations for new machines will lead to a 58% reduction in fleet NOX emissions over the same period. These emission regulations are targeted at the larger, more polluting machines, with smaller machines not required to meet tighter emissions standards under Stage V. As a result, mini-excavators are the most common machines and consequently become the dominant source of NOX emissions from the fleet, contributing 55% in 2025. Therefore, tighter emissions regulations, or the uptake of battery power in the form of electrification, for these small machines would yield significant emissions redu
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Journal articleNagel G, Chen J, Jaensch A, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project
, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 154, Pages: 1900-1910, ISSN: 0020-7136Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w ) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5 , NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 , 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 , 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3w . We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5 , NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.
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Journal articleFuselier SA, Petrinec SM, Reiff PH, et al., 2024,
Global-scale processes and effects of magnetic reconnection on the geospace environment
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 220, ISSN: 0038-6308Recent multi-point measurements, in particular from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS)spacecraft, have advanced the understanding of micro-scale aspects of magnetic reconnection. In addition, the MMS mission, as part of the Heliospheric System Observatory, combined with recent advances in global magnetospheric modeling, have furthered the understanding of meso- and global-scale structure and consequences of reconnection. Magneticreconnection at the dayside magnetopause and in the magnetotail are the drivers of the globalDungey cycle, a classical picture of global magnetospheric circulation. Some recent advances in the global structure and consequences of reconnection that are addressed hereinclude a detailed understanding of the location and steadiness of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause, the importance of multiple plasma sources in the global circulation, andreconnection consequences in the magnetotail. These advances notwithstanding, there areimportant questions about global reconnection that remain. These questions focus on howmultiple reconnection and reconnection variability fit into and complicate the Dungey Cyclepicture of global magnetospheric circulation.
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Journal articleVicco A, McCormack C, Pedrique B, et al., 2024,
A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries
, EBioMedicine, Vol: 104, ISSN: 2352-3964BackgroundDengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.MethodsThis scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.FindingsWe found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world.InterpretationThe results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.FundingUK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.
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Journal articleEastwood JP, Brown P, Magnes W, et al., 2024,
The Vigil Magnetometer for Operational Space Weather Services From the Sun‐Earth L5 Point
, Space Weather, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1542-7390<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Severe space weather has the potential to cause significant socio‐economic impact and it is widely accepted that mitigating this risk requires more comprehensive observations of the Sun and heliosphere, enabling more accurate forecasting of significant events with longer lead‐times. In this context, it is now recognized that observations from the L5 Sun‐Earth Lagrange point (both remote and in situ) would offer considerable improvements in our ability to monitor and forecast space weather. Remote sensing from L5 allows for the observation of solar features earlier than at L1, providing early monitoring of active region development, as well as tracking of interplanetary coronal mass ejections through the inner heliosphere. In situ measurements at L5 characterize the solar wind's geoeffectiveness (particularly stream interaction regions), and can also be ingested into heliospheric models, improving their performance. The Vigil space weather mission is part of the ESA Space Safety Program and will provide a real‐time data stream for space weather services from L5 following its anticipated launch in the early 2030s. The interplanetary magnetic field is a key observational parameter, and here we describe the development of the Vigil magnetometer instrument for operational space weather monitoring at the L5 point. We summarize the baseline instrument capabilities, demonstrating how heritage from science missions has been leveraged to develop a low‐risk, high‐heritage instrument concept.</jats:p>
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ReportEl Omrani O, Massazza A, Fleury J, et al., 2024,
Submission by The Climate Cares Centre and United for Global Mental Health to the Expert Dialogue on Children and Climate Change
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