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Journal articleMonerie PA, Feng X, Hodges K, et al., 2025,
High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.
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Journal articlePayne DS, Swisdak M, Eastwood JP, et al., 2025,
In-situ observations of the magnetothermodynamic evolution of electron-only reconnection
, Communications Physics, Vol: 8Field-particle energy exchange is important to the magnetic reconnection process, but uncertainties regarding the time evolution of this exchange remain. We investigate the temporal dynamics of field-particle energy exchange during magnetic reconnection, using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission observations of an electron-only reconnection event in the magnetosheath. The electron energy is in local minimum at the x-line due to a density depletion, while the magnetic energy is in local maximum due to a guide field enhancement. The electromagnetic energy transport comes almost entirely from guide field contributions and is confined within the reconnection plane, while the most significant contribution to electron energy transport is independent of the drift velocity with additional out-of-plane signatures. Multi-spacecraft analysis suggests that the guide field energy is decreasing while the electron density is increasing, both evolving such that the system is moving toward a more uniform distribution of magnetic and thermal energy.
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Journal articleLiu M, Prentice IC, Menviel L, et al., 2025,
Correction to: Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks (Communications Earth & Environment, (2022), 3, 1, (196), 10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0)
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 6Correction to:Communications Earth & Environmenthttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0, published online 30 August 2022 In the version of this article originally published, three estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from different sources were used to convert feedback strength into the unitless measure – gain – on the assumption that these were independent. In fact, these were not independent, and so combining them yields a too-narrow uncertainty range. The authors decided to only use the “very likely” (instead of “likely”) range from IPCC WG1 AR6 and treat it as a 90% confidence interval. Additionally, the gain is not normally distributed but is highly asymmetric, as it is the negative of the ratio of two approximately normally distributed variables, feedback strength (c) and the net feedback parameter (αnet), with a non-zero centre. There is no standard way to derive confidence intervals from standard error for such a variable. Therefore, in the correct version, only the standard error of the gain is provided, instead of giving confidence intervals. Besides, since calculating standard error by the error propagation rule requires the input variables to be at least approximately normally distributed, the gain was calculated directly from the net feedback parameter (αnet, which is assumed to be normally distributed) corresponding to ECS (which is not normally distributed). The changes implemented have no impact on the calculated feedback strengths, but they do have an impact on the estimated gains. Since confidence intervals are no longer provided for the gains, the comparison is focused on the feedback strengths. The authors would like to thank Dr. B. B. Cael from the National Oceanography Centre for bringing this issue to their attention with advice about the choice of ECS and how the very likely range should be interpreted into confidence interval. The manuscript has now been corrected i
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Journal articleAhmed AN, Fornace KM, Iwamura T, et al., 2025,
Human animal contact, land use change and zoonotic disease risk: a protocol for systematic review
, Systematic Reviews, Vol: 14Background: Zoonotic diseases pose a significant risk to human health globally. The interrelationship between humans, animals, and the environment plays a key role in the transmission of zoonotic infections. Human-animal contact (HAC) is particularly important in this relationship, where it serves as the pivotal interaction for pathogen spillover to occur from an animal reservoir to a human. In the context of disease emergence linked to land-use change, increased HAC as a result of land changes (e.g., deforestation, agricultural expansion, habitat degradation) is frequently cited as a key mechanism. We propose to conduct a systematic literature review to map and assess the quality of current evidence linking changes in HAC to zoonotic disease emergence as a result of land-use change. Method: We developed a search protocol to be conducted in eight (8) databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, Scopus, AGRIS, Africa-Wide Info, and Global Index Medicus. The review will follow standard systematic review methods and will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. The search will consist of building a search strategy, database search, and a snowballing search of references from retrieved relevant articles. The search strategy will be developed for Medline (through PubMed) and EMBASE databases. The search strategy will then be applied to all eight (8) databases. Retrieved articles will be exported to EndNote 20 where duplicates will be removed and exported to Rayyan®, to screen papers using their title and abstract. Screening will be conducted by two independent reviewers and data extraction will be performed using a data extraction form. Articles retrieved will be assessed using study quality appraisal tools (OHAT-Office for Health Assessment and Technology Risk of Bias Rating Tool for Human and Animal Studies, CCS-Case Control Studies, OCCSS-Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectio
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Journal articleLi X, Buytaert W, Tang Q, et al., 2025,
Hydrological impact of small hydropower development on mountain rivers in Southwest China and the role of environmental flows
, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 657, ISSN: 0022-1694Small- and medium-sized mountain rivers are often the locations of small hydropower plants (SHPs), which bring electricity to remote mountainous areas but also cause a range of environmental and ecological impacts. Alterations in hydrological regimes are the most direct impact of SHPs, which in turn triggers changes in physical, chemical, and biological conditions. Environmental agencies of many countries have taken measures to mitigate hydrological changes in these rivers, including requiring SHPs to release environmental flows. However, it remains unclear how effective these measures are in compensating for hydrological changes. In this study, we examined hydrological alterations in seven small mountain river basins in the Yangtze River using a combination of numerical simulation and statistical analysis. A framework was presented and applied to assess the impacts of SHPs and the effects of environmental flows. A total of 32 hydrological indicators were selected and calculated based on measured and modeled hydrological data, and the changes in these indicators were assessed using three indexes. The values of extreme and dynamic water conditions indicators were significantly changed after the SHPs were fully developed. Five indicators, including the number of low pulses, the number of high pulses, the duration of low pulses, the daily rise rate, and the number of flow reversals, were identified as the most unfavorable indicators. A constant environmental flow release of 10% of the long-term average flow, which is the current policy, had a limited impact on mitigating adverse hydrological changes. We therefore suggest the development of an environmental flow regime that better mimics natural flow variability, but not just based on a constant release threshold in small hydropower-developed rivers.
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Journal articleAl Khalili U, Bellos V, Christou M, et al., 2025,
Regular and random wave modelling over mild uniform bathymetry using SWASH
, Coastal Engineering, Vol: 199, ISSN: 0378-3839The modelling of coastal waves is challenging in light of their complex behaviour driven by a range ofinteracting physical effects such as nonlinear amplification, wave breaking and the influence of bathymetry.However, their accurate modelling and understanding is fundamental in the design of coastal structures.Many numerical models have been established to accurately capture these effects. One notable example isSWASH, which is readily used in industry to provide insight on structural designs. The present study assessesthe applicability, validity and accuracy of SWASH to model regular and irregular waves propagating overmild bathymetries from intermediate water depth up to the shoreline. Particular emphasis is placed on themodel’s ability to capture the effects of shoaling, wave reflection and breaking with accuracy yet reasonablecomputational cost. This is addressed through an analysis into the spatial distribution of crest height andwave height statistics. The accuracy of the numerical model is subsequently established through comparisonsto equivalent sea-states generated experimentally. SWASH is shown to perform well in modelling sea-states oflocal steepness 𝐻𝑠∕𝑑 < 0.3 with 2% accuracy. However, caution should be taken in modelling steeper sea-statesdominated by breaking, where underestimation in normalised crest heights and wave heights of up to 18%are observed compared to experimental measurements.
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Journal articleDe Nardi A, Marini G, Dorigatti I, et al., 2025,
Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy.
, Infect Dis Model, Vol: 10, Pages: 375-386West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the avian population in the Emilia-Romagna region through a modelling framework which enabled us to eventually assess the fraction of birds that present anti-WNV antibodies at the end of each epidemiological season. We fitted an SIR model to ornithological data, consisting of 18,989 specimens belonging to Corvidae species collected between 2013 and 2022: every year from May to November birds are captured or shot and tested for WNV genome presence. We found that the incidence peaks between mid-July and late August, infected corvids seem on average 17% more likely to be captured with respect to susceptible ones and seroprevalence was estimated to be larger than other years at the end of 2018, consistent with the anomalous number of recorded human infections. Thanks to our modelling study we quantified WNV infection dynamics in the corvid community, which is still poorly investigated despite its importance for the virus circulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies providing quantitative information on infection and immunity in the bird population, yielding new important insights on WNV transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleWilson C, Shonk JKP, Bohnenstengel SI, et al., 2025,
Microscale to neighbourhood scale: Impact of shading on urban climate
, Building and Environment, Vol: 275, ISSN: 0360-1323This work investigates the impact that the distribution of shading has on the urban surface energy balance (SEB) and microclimate. We use the building-resolving large eddy simulation code uDALES to perform simulations of a realistic vegetated urban area, consistent with a mixed-type commercial and residential land use zone, under convective atmospheric conditions. Two cases are considered, one with a solar zenith angle of Z=0∘ (the Sun directly overhead) and the other with Z=45∘ (mid-morning). The incoming solar radiation is chosen such that the total power is the same in both cases in order to isolate the effects of the shading distribution. We find that microclimate scale variations in the surface energy balance (SEB) and mean radiant temperature (MRT) depend most significantly on whether or not a region is in direct sunlight. For example, on average the net shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux differ by approximately 424 Wm−2 and 277 Wm−2 respectively when comparing between shaded and unshaded surfaces. However, averaged across the domain, the distribution of shading does not impact the SEB fluxes, except for the latent heat flux (E) which is 22% higher when Z=0∘. Similarly, the average MRT varies little between the two cases — differing by 0.19 K. Radiation emitted and reflected from the surface is found to dominate the MRT. This work illustrates the impact that shading distribution has on the microclimate highlighting the importance of resolving the urban surface explicitly.
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Journal articlePrieur M, Robin C, Braun J, et al., 2025,
Climate Control on Erosion: Evolution of Sediment Flux From Mountainous Catchments During a Global Warming Event, PETM, Southern Pyrenees, Spain
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Extreme hydroclimates impact sediment fluxes from mountainous catchments to the oceans. Given modern global warming, a challenge is to assess the sensitivity of erosion in mountainous catchments to extreme climate perturbations. Here, we reconstruct paleo-sedimentary fluxes across an abrupt global warming, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼56 Ma), using sedimentary archives and numerical modeling. In the Tremp Basin (Southern Pyrenees, Spain), our results demonstrate that depositional volumetric rates of siliciclastic sediments increased two-fold during the PETM. According to the BQART and stream power law models, changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation explain only 9%–27% of the flux increase. This comparison between field data and model predictions suggests that even with high uncertainty on paleoclimate data, extreme rainfall events and landslides may have been crucial sediment generation processes during the PETM. This is consistent with predictions of enhanced climate variability in a warmer world, leading to significant sediment flushing.
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Journal articleQi L, Muxworthy AR, Collier J, et al., 2025,
Magnetization of Ultramafic Rocks in the Troodos Ophiolite: Implications for Ridge Axis Serpentinization and Ophiolite Emplacement
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, ISSN: 2169-9313
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