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Journal articleMonerie PA, Feng X, Hodges K, et al., 2025,
High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.
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Journal articleLiu M, Prentice IC, Menviel L, et al., 2025,
Correction to: Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks (Communications Earth & Environment, (2022), 3, 1, (196), 10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0)
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 6Correction to:Communications Earth & Environmenthttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0, published online 30 August 2022 In the version of this article originally published, three estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from different sources were used to convert feedback strength into the unitless measure – gain – on the assumption that these were independent. In fact, these were not independent, and so combining them yields a too-narrow uncertainty range. The authors decided to only use the “very likely” (instead of “likely”) range from IPCC WG1 AR6 and treat it as a 90% confidence interval. Additionally, the gain is not normally distributed but is highly asymmetric, as it is the negative of the ratio of two approximately normally distributed variables, feedback strength (c) and the net feedback parameter (αnet), with a non-zero centre. There is no standard way to derive confidence intervals from standard error for such a variable. Therefore, in the correct version, only the standard error of the gain is provided, instead of giving confidence intervals. Besides, since calculating standard error by the error propagation rule requires the input variables to be at least approximately normally distributed, the gain was calculated directly from the net feedback parameter (αnet, which is assumed to be normally distributed) corresponding to ECS (which is not normally distributed). The changes implemented have no impact on the calculated feedback strengths, but they do have an impact on the estimated gains. Since confidence intervals are no longer provided for the gains, the comparison is focused on the feedback strengths. The authors would like to thank Dr. B. B. Cael from the National Oceanography Centre for bringing this issue to their attention with advice about the choice of ECS and how the very likely range should be interpreted into confidence interval. The manuscript has now been corrected i
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Journal articlePayne DS, Swisdak M, Eastwood JP, et al., 2025,
In-situ observations of the magnetothermodynamic evolution of electron-only reconnection
, Communications Physics, Vol: 8Field-particle energy exchange is important to the magnetic reconnection process, but uncertainties regarding the time evolution of this exchange remain. We investigate the temporal dynamics of field-particle energy exchange during magnetic reconnection, using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission observations of an electron-only reconnection event in the magnetosheath. The electron energy is in local minimum at the x-line due to a density depletion, while the magnetic energy is in local maximum due to a guide field enhancement. The electromagnetic energy transport comes almost entirely from guide field contributions and is confined within the reconnection plane, while the most significant contribution to electron energy transport is independent of the drift velocity with additional out-of-plane signatures. Multi-spacecraft analysis suggests that the guide field energy is decreasing while the electron density is increasing, both evolving such that the system is moving toward a more uniform distribution of magnetic and thermal energy.
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Journal articleZhang J, Chen YS, Gryspeerdt E, et al., 2025,
Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 6Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m−2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.
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Journal articleAl Khalili U, Bellos V, Christou M, et al., 2025,
Regular and random wave modelling over mild uniform bathymetry using SWASH
, Coastal Engineering, Vol: 199, ISSN: 0378-3839The modelling of coastal waves is challenging in light of their complex behaviour driven by a range ofinteracting physical effects such as nonlinear amplification, wave breaking and the influence of bathymetry.However, their accurate modelling and understanding is fundamental in the design of coastal structures.Many numerical models have been established to accurately capture these effects. One notable example isSWASH, which is readily used in industry to provide insight on structural designs. The present study assessesthe applicability, validity and accuracy of SWASH to model regular and irregular waves propagating overmild bathymetries from intermediate water depth up to the shoreline. Particular emphasis is placed on themodel’s ability to capture the effects of shoaling, wave reflection and breaking with accuracy yet reasonablecomputational cost. This is addressed through an analysis into the spatial distribution of crest height andwave height statistics. The accuracy of the numerical model is subsequently established through comparisonsto equivalent sea-states generated experimentally. SWASH is shown to perform well in modelling sea-states oflocal steepness 𝐻𝑠∕𝑑 < 0.3 with 2% accuracy. However, caution should be taken in modelling steeper sea-statesdominated by breaking, where underestimation in normalised crest heights and wave heights of up to 18%are observed compared to experimental measurements.
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Journal articleDe Nardi A, Marini G, Dorigatti I, et al., 2025,
Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy.
, Infect Dis Model, Vol: 10, Pages: 375-386West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the avian population in the Emilia-Romagna region through a modelling framework which enabled us to eventually assess the fraction of birds that present anti-WNV antibodies at the end of each epidemiological season. We fitted an SIR model to ornithological data, consisting of 18,989 specimens belonging to Corvidae species collected between 2013 and 2022: every year from May to November birds are captured or shot and tested for WNV genome presence. We found that the incidence peaks between mid-July and late August, infected corvids seem on average 17% more likely to be captured with respect to susceptible ones and seroprevalence was estimated to be larger than other years at the end of 2018, consistent with the anomalous number of recorded human infections. Thanks to our modelling study we quantified WNV infection dynamics in the corvid community, which is still poorly investigated despite its importance for the virus circulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies providing quantitative information on infection and immunity in the bird population, yielding new important insights on WNV transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleWilson C, Shonk JKP, Bohnenstengel SI, et al., 2025,
Microscale to neighbourhood scale: Impact of shading on urban climate
, Building and Environment, Vol: 275, ISSN: 0360-1323This work investigates the impact that the distribution of shading has on the urban surface energy balance (SEB) and microclimate. We use the building-resolving large eddy simulation code uDALES to perform simulations of a realistic vegetated urban area, consistent with a mixed-type commercial and residential land use zone, under convective atmospheric conditions. Two cases are considered, one with a solar zenith angle of Z=0∘ (the Sun directly overhead) and the other with Z=45∘ (mid-morning). The incoming solar radiation is chosen such that the total power is the same in both cases in order to isolate the effects of the shading distribution. We find that microclimate scale variations in the surface energy balance (SEB) and mean radiant temperature (MRT) depend most significantly on whether or not a region is in direct sunlight. For example, on average the net shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux differ by approximately 424 Wm−2 and 277 Wm−2 respectively when comparing between shaded and unshaded surfaces. However, averaged across the domain, the distribution of shading does not impact the SEB fluxes, except for the latent heat flux (E) which is 22% higher when Z=0∘. Similarly, the average MRT varies little between the two cases — differing by 0.19 K. Radiation emitted and reflected from the surface is found to dominate the MRT. This work illustrates the impact that shading distribution has on the microclimate highlighting the importance of resolving the urban surface explicitly.
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OtherPrasow-Émond M, Plancherel Y, Mason PJ, et al., 2025,
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Small Island Nations: A Data-Driven Approach to Disentangling Coastal Changes
<jats:p>Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are a group of 58 nations identified by the United Nations as facing unique sustainability challenges, including high exposure to climate change, lack of data, and limited resources. The effects of climate change are already observed in SIDS, notably an increase in the magnitude and frequency of natural disasters, marine biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, coral bleaching, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. The coastal zone is considered to be the main economic, environmental, and cultural resource of SIDS. Monitoring coastal changes is therefore essential to protect communities, biodiversity, natural landscapes, and their economies, as well as to help them adapt to and mitigate against climate change.This talk presents the use of remote sensing data to monitor and analyse the evolution of small islands. Open-access satellite missions, namely Landsat (NASA) and Sentinel (ESA), provide imagery with spatial resolutions of 10 to 60 metres and temporal resolutions of 5 to 16 days. These capabilities enable the retrieval of high-temporal-resolution time series of coastline positions across islands worldwide.A specific focus is placed on the Maldives (Indian Ocean) due to its low elevation and extensive human interventions. Existing literature lacks a comprehensive understanding of the patterns of coastal changes, as well as the main anthropogenic and environmental drivers involved, which operate across diverse temporal (e.g., daily, seasonal, multi-decadal) and spatial scales (e.g., site-specific or atoll-wide). Maldivian coastlines are not systematically or frequently monitored, such that sub and interannual variability and the geomorphological responses to climate forcings, such as the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are not understood.To address this research gap, a data-driven framework was developed, leveraging remote sensing, in situ measurements, and open-access databases. This framework quantif
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Journal articleZhang H, Wang H, Wright IJ, et al., 2025,
Thermal acclimation of stem respiration implies a weaker carbon-climate feedback
, Science -
Journal articleZHOU B, Cai W, Zhu Z, et al., 2025,
A general model for the seasonal to decadal dynamics of leaf area
, Global Change Biology, ISSN: 1354-1013
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