In this section

National responses informed by economics and behaviour

Imperial has special strengths in public health policy modelling and assessment of interventions that integrate epidemiology, health, economics, behaviour, social aspects, and communication. This modelling is critical for:

Controlling infection while protecting both the economy and the lives and wellbeing of citizens in the uncertain conditions of a pandemic.
Understanding the impacts of a pandemic on the population beyond the infection itself, including impacts on mental health, dementia, health inequalities and wellbeing.
Informing clinical capacity building for healthcare systems, including provision of elective surgery services, prioritisation of critical care resources, and conversion of operating theatres to critical care wards.
Contributing to behaviour change and understanding to promote acceptance and adherence to health policies.

Imperial experts are modelling and contributing to roadmaps related to lockdowns, vaccination strategies (including vaccine passports or mandates), contact tracing, social distancing (including in public transport) and health surveillance. Others are tackling risks around public scepticism and apathy, government appetite (and memory).

Experts working in this area

Click on the topics below to explore the work and interests of the ~50 research groups working to inform national responses using their expertise in modelling, economics, behaviour, and health systems analysis.

Data and models to inform interventions

Dr Marc Baguelin: Infectious disease epidemiology, outbreak analysis, vaccination policies (incl. influenza pandemic, Ebola outbreak, SARS-CoV-2 pandemic).
Dr Leon Barron: National-scale wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor and inform responses to new and changing medication and substance (mis)use changes in near real-time.
Professor Anil Bharath: Machine learning to support LFT result analysis to for monitoring COVID antibodies at the population level.
Professor Samir Bhatt: Mathematics, statistics, and computer science tools for public health. Example (in Covid): Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.
Professor Thomas Churcher: Malaria and other vector borne disease epidemiology. In Covid (example): Public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
Professor Christl Donnelly: Statistical epidemiology (including diseases affected both public health and animal health), including understanding the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. Example (in Covid): Effectiveness of social distancing measures, vaccination, and repeated rapid test strategies. Example (in bovine tuberculosis): Evaluation of the effectiveness of badger culling to control TB in cattle herds.
Professor Paul Elliott: Large-scale population studies for public health interventions. In Covid (example): REACT study.
Professor Majid Ezzati: Population health outcomes and determinants; health inequalities; global environmental health; global reporting on major cardiometabolic conditions related to infection.
Professor Neil Ferguson: Mathematical modelling of infectious disease transmission and impact on people and healthcare systems; impact of vaccines; role of immunity; risk factors. Example (in Covid): Vaccination strategies for SARS-CoV-2.
Professor Azra Ghani: Mathematical modelling. Example (in Covid): Impact of vaccination strategies for SARS-CoV-2.
Professor Daniel Graham: Statistical modelling and simulation tools for analysis of civil engineering-related interventions. Example (in Covid): Social distancing in public transport; operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic; modelling the propagation of infectious disease via transportation networks.
Professor Nick Grassly: Vaccine epidemiology, vaccine trials, disease surveillance. Example (in Covid): Molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control.
Professor Katharina Hauck: Health economics, economics of infectious diseases, economic evaluation of complex health interventions.
Dr Thibaut Jombart: Statistical genetics of pathogen populations to study spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. Example (in Covid): Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage.
Professor Ajit Lalvani: NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections: Designing, conducting and sharing internationally-leading multidisciplinary health protection research.
Professor Marisa Miraldo: Health economics and public policy, behavioural interventions, economics and policy of healthcare innovations; economics of pandemic preparedness.
Professor Guy Nason: Long term horizon scanning, wide-ranging technological breakthroughs, security and public safety.
Dr Thomas Rawson: Real-time modelling and projections; impact of decision-making regarding vaccine rollout; effect of health inequity.
Professor Elio Riboli: Cancer epidemiology and prevention. Example (in Covid): COVID-19 mass testing.
Professor Steven Riley: Spatial transmission processes, contact patterns and complex exposure histories; surveillance. Example (in Covid): REACT-1.
Professor Mireille Toledano: Epidemiology, analysis of large routine health datasets and spatial epidemiology. Example (in Covid): Effects on pandemic and public health measures on adolescent mental health and well-being.
Professor Helen Ward: Epidemiology and control of infectious diseases including outbreak and pandemic response (HIV, STI, SARS-CoV-2); Community engagement in outbreak response. Example (in Covid): Co-lead, REACT study of the long-term health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and wellbeing.
Dr Oliver Watson: Pandemic preparedness and vaccine impact modelling. Example (in Covid): Impact of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.

Economics, social influences, and behaviour

Dr Rossella Arcucci: AI and machine learning. Example (in Covid): Dynamic social networks for COVID-19 vaccination strategies.
Professor Rafael Calvo: Design systems, behaviour analytics, communication, ethics. Examples (in Covid): Effect of COVID-19 on home behaviours of people affected by dementia; Messaging strategies and psychologies around uptake of contact tracing and vaccine passports.
Dr Viveka Guzman Ortega: Understanding factors that influence compliance with public health measures and developing interventions to support vulnerable populations during pandemics. Example (in Covid): Socio-ecological determinants of older people’s mental health and well-being during COVID-19.
Professor Jonathan Haskel: Macroeconomics. Example (in Covid): Policy advice about the impact of a post-coronavirus (COVID-19) recession on the UK economy.
Professor Katharina Hauck: Health economics, economics of infectious diseases, economic evaluation of complex health interventions. Example (in Covid): Optimizing pandemic mitigation, considering health, economic and educational outcomes in the UK and internationally; supporting clinical capacity building, including re-introduction of elective procedures, prioritisation of critical care resources.
Dr Dauda Ibrahim: Systematic frameworks for computer-aided design and optimisation. In Covid (example): Model-based planning and delivery of mass vaccination campaigns; strategic planning of a joint SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza Vaccination Campaign in the UK.
Professor Nick Jones: Artificial intelligence. Example (in Covid): Predicting and mapping acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine for effective design of vaccination campaign strategies.
Dr Victoria Male: Evidence-based guidance to address public perceptions about COVID-19 vaccine risks (e.g., related to fertility, pregnancy, breastfeeding, newborns, and the menstrual cycle).
Professor Marisa Miraldo: Health economics and public policy, behavioural interventions, economics and policy of healthcare innovations; economics of pandemic preparedness. Example (in Covid): Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Dr Jonathan Otter: PPE coaching
Dr Talya Porat: Human factors, human-computer interaction, usability and cognitive engineering, behaviour change. Example (in Covid): Vaccine passport association with vaccine hesitancy.
Professor Esther Rodriguez-Villegas: Low-power electronics and app design. Example (in Covid): Contact tracing app for Covid-19 built on privacy design principles.
Professor Nilay Shah: Modelling and design of supply chains for pandemic response.
Dr Helen Skirrow: Child health and early childhood vaccinations. Example (in Covid): Pregnant women’s attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines and impact of pandemic on vaccine services.
Professor Tommaso Valletti: Economics and policy research. Example (in Covid): Financial impact of ad blockers in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr Jingmin Zhu: Evaluation of health policy. Example (in Covid): What has long COVID done to personal finances.

Health systems and treatment guidelines

Professor Graham Cooke: Community studies, early experimental medicine, and clinical trials to inform treatment guidelines. Example (in Covid): COVID-19 REACT study, RECOVERY study.
Professor Alison Holmes: Surveillance systems and healthcare associated infections. Example (in Covid): delivery of real-time hospital onset COVID-19 infections using networks of patient contacts.
Professor Liz Lightstone: Renal medicine. Example (in Covid): Treatment guidance and impact of vaccines on immunosuppressed kidney patients.
Professor Kathryn Maitland: Emergency interventions, treatment management, and clinical trials in Africa.
Professor Azeem Majeed: Health policy and the organisation and delivery of health care; guidance to healthcare professionals and researchers, including in areas such as infection control, testing and vaccination, use of antiviral drugs for people at serious risk from Covid-19 infection; guidance at national level. Example (in Covid): Worked with NHS England on areas such as protecting staff from the complications of infection early in the pandemic before vaccination was available and evaluating the impact of the national Covid-19 vaccination programme on hospital admissions for Covid-19 in England.
Professor Peter Openshaw: Chair, NERVTAG, a UK advisory committee that performs horizon-scanning and risk assessments for potential pandemic threats; Scientific advice to regulators, government and manufactures in relation to the development of protective vaccines (including mucosal vaccines and combination vaccines protecting against more than one pathogen).
Dr Brijesh Patel: Database for severe respiratory failure supported on ECMO; Multinational study examining clinical decision support for ventilatory management; Application of machine learning approaches to better understand management of mechanical ventilation with an aim of pandemic planning re critical care management.
Dr Antonis Sergis: Laser optics and software to study aerosol generation. Example (in Covid): New protocols for safe delivery of dental care during Covid-19 to determine national and international response and policy.
Dr Elizabeth Whittaker: Immune responses to infectious diseases, biomarkers, vaccinations; vaccine hesitancy. Example (in Covid): Impact of the COVID pandemic on vaccine uptake in NW London; management of long-Covid in children and young; balancing risk and benefit of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in children.
Professor Wolfram Wiesemann: Decision-making under uncertainty. Example (in Covid): Optimal hospital care scheduling during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; optimal national prioritisation policies for hospital care during pandemic.

Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness

The Jameel Institute-Kenneth C. Griffin Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness: Using integrated economic-epidemiological modelling to provide critical data and analysis to inform public health decisions related to pandemic preparedness and disease outbreaks around the world.

DAEDALUS: An economic-epidemiological model

Economic-epidemiological model to optimize economic activity while containing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

REACT-2: A Nationwide Coronavirus Antibody Study

Measuring the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the population to gauge the waning of antibodies over time, assess the impact of the vaccination programme, and evaluate self-antibody testing.

Example tools

The DAEDALUS Explore dashboard (Pandemic simulation tool)

DAEDALUS Explore is an interactive dashboard tool that allows users to simulate the health, education and economic impacts of hypothetical future pandemic scenarios for seven pandemics of varying severity in 67 countries. The seven pandemics are informed by the characteristics of pathogens that have caused historic pandemics.

The dashboard provides estimates of infections, hospitalisations, deaths, vaccinations, and economic losses.

The DAEDALUS Explore dashboard and the underlying DAEDALUS model were created by ‘The Jameel Institute – Kenneth C Griffin Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness’ (EPPI)

Visit the dashboard

Screenshot of report cover with title: Economics of Pandemic Preparedness: Trade offs in peacetime and pandemics

Report: Economics of Pandemic Preparedness

Read the 2024 report, 'Economics of Pandemic Preparedness - Trade-offs in peacetime and pandemics', summarising key messages, challenges and proposed solutions presented in an interdisciplinary Imperial College workshop that explored the tough choices that must be made in the trade-offs between population health and the
economy.

Read the report

Science in Context - Malaria with Prof Thomas Churcher

Interview created by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis exploring challenges in malaria control and a new tool identifying most cost-effective malaria control measures.

Watch on YouTube

Science in Context - COVID-19 with Dr Anne Cori & Dr Marc Ba

Interview created by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in 2021 discussing the roadmap policy that relaxed lockdown restrictions, which was effective in keeping transmission low enough to avoid a large epidemic rebound while having as few restrictions as possible.

Watch on YouTube

National responses informed by economics and behaviour

Experts working in this area

Experts working in this area

Example initiatives and studies

Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness

DAEDALUS: An economic-epidemiological model

REACT-2: A Nationwide Coronavirus Antibody Study

Example tools

Read and watch: National responses (examples)

Report: Economics of Pandemic Preparedness

Science in Context - Malaria with Prof Thomas Churcher

Science in Context - COVID-19 with Dr Anne Cori & Dr Marc Ba