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  • Journal article
    Russell F, Takeda Y, Kormushev P, Vaidyanathan R, Ellison Pet al., 2021,

    Stiffness modulation in a humanoid robotic leg and knee

    , IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters, Vol: 6, Pages: 2563-2570, ISSN: 2377-3766

    Stiffness modulation in walking is critical to maintain static/dynamic stability as well as minimize energy consumption and impact damage. However, optimal, or even functional, stiffness parameterization remains unresolved in legged robotics.We introduce an architecture for stiffness control utilizing a bioinspired robotic limb consisting of a condylar knee joint and leg with antagonistic actuation. The joint replicates elastic ligaments of the human knee providing tuneable compliance for walking. It further locks out at maximum extension, providing stability when standing. Compliance and friction losses between joint surfaces are derived as a function of ligament stiffness and length. Experimental studies validate utility through quantification of: 1) hip perturbation response; 2) payload capacity; and 3) static stiffness of the leg mechanism.Results prove initiation and compliance at lock out can be modulated independently of friction loss by changing ligament elasticity. Furthermore, increasing co-contraction or decreasing joint angle enables increased leg stiffness, which establishes co-contraction is counterbalanced by decreased payload.Findings have direct application in legged robots and transfemoral prosthetic knees, where biorobotic design could reduce energy expense while improving efficiency and stability. Future targeted impact involves increasing power/weight ratios in walking robots and artificial limbs for increased efficiency and precision in walking control.

  • Journal article
    Wu P, Chang X, Yuan W, Sun J, Zhang W, Arcucci R, Guo Yet al., 2021,

    Fast data assimilation (FDA): Data assimilation by machine learning for faster optimize model state

    , JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, Vol: 51, ISSN: 1877-7503
  • Journal article
    Cyras K, Heinrich Q, Toni F, 2021,

    Computational complexity of flat and generic assumption-based argumentation, with and without probabilities

    , Artificial Intelligence, Vol: 293, Pages: 1-36, ISSN: 0004-3702

    Reasoning with probabilistic information has recently attracted considerable attention in argumentation, and formalisms of Probabilistic Abstract Argumentation (PAA), Probabilistic Bipolar Argumentation (PBA) and Probabilistic Structured Argumentation (PSA) have been proposed. These foundational advances have been complemented with investigations on the complexity of some approaches to PAA and PBA, but not to PSA. We study the complexity of an existing form of PSA, namely Probabilistic Assumption-Based Argumentation (PABA), a powerful, implemented formalism which subsumes several forms of PAA and other forms of PSA. Specifically, we establish membership (general upper bounds) and completeness (instantiated lower bounds) of reasoning in PABA for the class FP#P (of functions with a #P-oracle for counting the solutions of an NP problem) with respect to newly introduced probabilistic verification, credulous and sceptical acceptance function problems under several ABA semantics. As a by-product necessary to establish PABA complexity results, we provide a comprehensive picture of the ABA complexity landscape (for both flat and generic, possibly non-flat ABA) for the classical decision problems of verification, existence, credulous and sceptical acceptance under those ABA semantics.

  • Journal article
    Qian Y, Expert P, Panzarasa P, Barahona Met al., 2021,

    Geometric graphs from data to aid classification tasks with Graph Convolutional Networks

    , Patterns, Vol: 2, Pages: 100237-100237, ISSN: 2666-3899
  • Conference paper
    Bonavita M, Arcucci R, Carrassi A, Dueben P, Geer AJ, Le Saux B, Longepe N, Mathieu P-P, Raynaud Let al., 2021,

    Machine Learning for Earth System Observation and Prediction

    , Publisher: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, Pages: E710-E716, ISSN: 0003-0007
  • Journal article
    Maes A, Barahona M, Clopath C, 2021,

    Learning compositional sequences with multiple time scales through a hierarchical network of spiking neurons

    , PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1553-734X

    Sequential behaviour is often compositional and organised across multiple time scales: a set of individual elements developing on short time scales (motifs) are combined to form longer functional sequences (syntax). Such organisation leads to a natural hierarchy that can be used advantageously for learning, since the motifs and the syntax can be acquired independently. Despite mounting experimental evidence for hierarchical structures in neuroscience, models for temporal learning based on neuronal networks have mostly focused on serial methods. Here, we introduce a network model of spiking neurons with a hierarchical organisation aimed at sequence learning on multiple time scales. Using biophysically motivated neuron dynamics and local plasticity rules, the model can learn motifs and syntax independently. Furthermore, the model can relearn sequences efficiently and store multiple sequences. Compared to serial learning, the hierarchical model displays faster learning, more flexible relearning, increased capacity, and higher robustness to perturbations. The hierarchical model redistributes the variability: it achieves high motif fidelity at the cost of higher variability in the between-motif timings.

  • Journal article
    Espinosa-Gonzalez AB, Neves AL, Fiorentino F, Prociuk D, Husain L, Ramtale SC, Mi E, Mi E, Macartney J, Anand SN, Sherlock J, Saravanakumar K, Mayer E, de Lusignan S, Greenhalgh T, Delaney BCet al., 2021,

    Predicting Risk of Hospital Admission in Patients With Suspected COVID-19 in a Community Setting: Protocol for Development and Validation of a Multivariate Risk Prediction Tool (Preprint)

    <sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> <p>During the pandemic, remote consultations have become the norm for assessing patients with signs and symptoms of COVID-19 to decrease the risk of transmission. This has intensified the clinical uncertainty already experienced by primary care clinicians when assessing patients with suspected COVID-19 and has prompted the use of risk prediction scores, such as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), to assess severity and guide treatment. However, the risk prediction tools available have not been validated in a community setting and are not designed to capture the idiosyncrasies of COVID-19 infection.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> <p>The objective of this study is to produce a multivariate risk prediction tool, RECAP-V1 (Remote COVID-19 Assessment in Primary Care), to support primary care clinicians in the identification of those patients with COVID-19 that are at higher risk of deterioration and facilitate the early escalation of their treatment with the aim of improving patient outcomes.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> <p>The study follows a prospective cohort observational design, whereby patients presenting in primary care with signs and symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 will be followed and their data linked to hospital outcomes (hospital admission and death). Data collection will be carried out by primary care clinicians in four arms: North West London Clinical Commissioning Groups (NWL CCGs), Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), Covid Clinical Assessment Service (CCAS), and South East London CCGs (Doctaly platform). The study involves the use o

  • Journal article
    Cursi F, Modugno V, Lanari L, Oriolo G, Kormushev Pet al., 2021,

    Bayesian neural network modeling and hierarchical MPC for a tendon-driven surgical robot with uncertainty minimization

    , IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters, Vol: 6, Pages: 2642-2649, ISSN: 2377-3766

    In order to guarantee precision and safety in robotic surgery, accurate models of the robot and proper control strategies are needed. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are capable of learning complex models and provide information about the uncertainties of the learned system. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a reliable control strategy to ensure optimality and satisfaction of safety constraints. In this work we propose the use of BNN to build the highly nonlinear kinematic and dynamic models of a tendon-driven surgical robot, and exploit the information about the epistemic uncertainties by means of a Hierarchical MPC (Hi-MPC) control strategy. Simulation and real world experiments show that the method is capable of ensuring accurate tip positioning, while satisfying imposed safety bounds on the kinematics and dynamics of the robot.

  • Journal article
    Cheng S, Pain CC, Guo Y-K, Arcucci Ret al., 2021,

    Real-time Updating of Dynamic Social Networks for COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies

    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Vaccination strategy is crucial in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the supply is still limited in many countries, contact network-based interventions can be most powerful to set an efficient strategy by identifying high-risk individuals or communities. However, due to the high dimension, only partial and noisy network information can be available in practice, especially for dynamic systems where contact networks are highly time-variant. Furthermore, the numerous mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have a significant impact on the infectious probability, requiring real-time network updating algorithms. In this study, we propose a sequential network updating approach based on data assimilation techniques to combine different sources of temporal information. We then prioritise the individuals with high-degree or high-centrality, obtained from assimilated networks, for vaccination. The assimilation-based approach is compared with the standard method (based on partially observed networks) and a random selection strategy in terms of vaccination effectiveness in a SIR model. The numerical comparison is first carried out using real-world face-to-face dynamic networks collected in a high school, followed by sequential multi-layer networks generated relying on the Barabasi-Albert model emulating large-scale social networks with several communities.</jats:p>

  • Journal article
    Kostopoulou O, Tracey C, Delaney B, 2021,

    Can decision support combat incompleteness and bias in routine primary care data?

    , Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, ISSN: 1067-5027

    Objective: Routine primary care data may be used for the derivation of clinical prediction rules and risk scores. We sought to measure the impact of a decision support system (DSS) on data completeness and freedom from bias.Materials and Methods: We used the clinical documentation of 34 UK general practitioners who took part in a previous study evaluating the DSS. They consulted with 12 standardized patients. In addition to suggesting di- agnoses, the DSS facilitates data coding. We compared the documentation from consultations with the elec- tronic health record (EHR) (baseline consultations) vs consultations with the EHR-integrated DSS (supported consultations). We measured the proportion of EHR data items related to the physician’s final diagnosis. We expected that in baseline consultations, physicians would document only or predominantly observations re- lated to their diagnosis, while in supported consultations, they would also document other observations as a re- sult of exploring more diagnoses and/or ease of coding.Results: Supported documentation contained significantly more codes (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1⁄4 5.76 [4.31, 7.70] P < .001) and less free text (IRR 1⁄4 0.32 [0.27, 0.40] P < .001) than baseline documentation. As expected, the proportion of diagnosis-related data was significantly lower (b 1⁄4 􏰀0.08 [􏰀0.11, 􏰀0.05] P < .001) in the supported consultations, and this was the case for both codes and free text.Conclusions: We provide evidence that data entry in the EHR is incomplete and reflects physicians’ cognitive biases. This has serious implications for epidemiological research that uses routine data. A DSS that facilitates and motivates data entry during the consultation can improve routine documentation.

  • Journal article
    Zheng JX, Pawar S, Goodman DFM, 2021,

    Further towards unambiguous edge bundling: Investigating power-confluentdrawings for network visualization

    , IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, Vol: 27, Pages: 2244-2249, ISSN: 1077-2626

    Bach et al. [1] recently presented an algorithm for constructing confluentdrawings, by leveraging power graph decomposition to generate an auxiliaryrouting graph. We identify two problems with their method and offer a singlesolution to solve both. We also classify the exact type of confluent drawingsthat the algorithm can produce as 'power-confluent', and prove that it is asubclass of the previously studied 'strict confluent' drawing. A descriptionand source code of our implementation is also provided, which additionallyincludes an improved method for power graph construction.

  • Journal article
    Saputra RP, Rakicevic N, Chappell D, Wang K, Kormushev Pet al., 2021,

    Hierarchical decomposed-objective model predictive control for autonomous casualty extraction

    , IEEE Access, Vol: 9, Pages: 39656-39679, ISSN: 2169-3536

    In recent years, several robots have been developed and deployed to perform casualty extraction tasks. However, the majority of these robots are overly complex, and require teleoperation via either a skilled operator or a specialised device, and often the operator must be present at the scene to navigate safely around the casualty. Instead, improving the autonomy of such robots can reduce the reliance on expert operators and potentially unstable communication systems, while still extracting the casualty in a safe manner. There are several stages in the casualty extraction procedure, from navigating to the location of the emergency, safely approaching and loading the casualty, to finally navigating back to the medical assistance location. In this paper, we propose a Hierarchical Decomposed-Objective based Model Predictive Control (HiDO-MPC) method for safely approaching and manoeuvring around the casualty. We implement this controller on ResQbot — a proof-of-concept mobile rescue robot we previously developed — capable of safely rescuing an injured person lying on the ground, i.e. performing the casualty extraction procedure. HiDO-MPC achieves the desired casualty extraction behaviour by decomposing the main objective into multiple sub-objectives with a hierarchical structure. At every time step, the controller evaluates this hierarchical decomposed objective and generates the optimal control decision. We have conducted a number of experiments both in simulation and using the real robot to evaluate the proposed method’s performance, and compare it with baseline approaches. The results demonstrate that the proposed control strategy gives significantly better results than baseline approaches in terms of accuracy, robustness, and execution time, when applied to casualty extraction scenarios.

  • Journal article
    D'Amore L, Murano A, Sorrentino L, Arcucci R, Laccetti Get al., 2021,

    Toward a multilevel scalable parallel Zielonka's algorithm for solving parity games

    , CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1532-0626
  • Journal article
    Kumar P, Kalaiarasan G, Porter AE, Pinna A, Kłosowski MM, Demokritou P, Chung KF, Pain C, Arvind DK, Arcucci R, Adcock IM, Dilliway Cet al., 2021,

    An overview of methods of fine and ultrafine particle collection for physicochemical characterisation and toxicity assessments.

    , Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 756, Pages: 1-22, ISSN: 0048-9697

    Particulate matter (PM) is a crucial health risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The smaller size fractions, ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5; fine particles) and ≤0.1 μm (PM0.1; ultrafine particles), show the highest bioactivity but acquiring sufficient mass for in vitro and in vivo toxicological studies is challenging. We review the suitability of available instrumentation to collect the PM mass required for these assessments. Five different microenvironments representing the diverse exposure conditions in urban environments are considered in order to establish the typical PM concentrations present. The highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM0.1 were found near traffic (i.e. roadsides and traffic intersections), followed by indoor environments, parks and behind roadside vegetation. We identify key factors to consider when selecting sampling instrumentation. These include PM concentration on-site (low concentrations increase sampling time), nature of sampling sites (e.g. indoors; noise and space will be an issue), equipment handling and power supply. Physicochemical characterisation requires micro- to milli-gram quantities of PM and it may increase according to the processing methods (e.g. digestion or sonication). Toxicological assessments of PM involve numerous mechanisms (e.g. inflammatory processes and oxidative stress) requiring significant amounts of PM to obtain accurate results. Optimising air sampling techniques are therefore important for the appropriate collection medium/filter which have innate physical properties and the potential to interact with samples. An evaluation of methods and instrumentation used for airborne virus collection concludes that samplers operating cyclone sampling techniques (using centrifugal forces) are effective in collecting airborne viruses. We highlight that predictive modelling can help to identify pollution hotspots in an urban environment for the efficient collection of PM mass. This review provides

  • Conference paper
    Johns E, Garcia-Hernando G, Kim T-K, 2020,

    Physics-based dexterous manipulations with estimated hand poses and residual reinforcement learning

    , 2020 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, Publisher: IEEE, Pages: 9561-9568

    Dexterous manipulation of objects in virtual environments with our bare hands, by using only a depth sensor and a state-of-the-art 3D hand pose estimator (HPE), is challenging. While virtual environments are ruled by physics, e.g. object weights and surface frictions, the absence of force feedback makes the task challenging, as even slight inaccuracies on finger tips or contact points from HPE may make the interactions fail. Prior arts simply generate contact forces in the direction of the fingers' closures, when finger joints penetrate virtual objects. Although useful for simple grasping scenarios, they cannot be applied to dexterous manipulations such as inhand manipulation. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL) approaches train agents that learn skills by using task-specific rewards, without considering any online user input. In this work, we propose to learn a model that maps noisy input hand poses to target virtual poses, which introduces the needed contacts to accomplish the tasks on a physics simulator. The agent is trained in a residual setting by using a model-free hybrid RL+IL approach. A 3D hand pose estimation reward is introduced leading to an improvement on HPE accuracy when the physics-guided corrected target poses are remapped to the input space. As the model corrects HPE errors by applying minor but crucial joint displacements for contacts, this helps to keep the generated motion visually close to the user input. Since HPE sequences performing successful virtual interactions do not exist, a data generation scheme to train and evaluate the system is proposed. We test our framework in two applications that use hand pose estimates for dexterous manipulations: hand-object interactions in VR and hand-object motion reconstruction in-the-wild. Experiments show that the proposed method outperforms various RL/IL baselines and the simple prior art of enforcing hand closure, both in task success and hand pose accuracy.

  • Conference paper
    Valassakis P, Ding Z, Johns E, 2021,

    Crossing the gap: a deep dive into zero-shot sim-to-real transfer for dynamics

    , 2020 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, Publisher: IEEE

    Zero-shot sim-to-real transfer of tasks with complex dynamics is a highly challenging and unsolved problem. A number of solutions have been proposed in recent years, but we have found that many works do not present a thorough evaluation in the real world, or underplay the significant engineering effort and task-specific fine tuning that is required to achieve the published results. In this paper, we dive deeper into the sim-to-real transfer challenge, investigate why this issuch a difficult problem, and present objective evaluations of anumber of transfer methods across a range of real-world tasks.Surprisingly, we found that a method which simply injects random forces into the simulation performs just as well as more complex methods, such as those which randomise the simulator's dynamics parameters

  • Conference paper
    Cursi F, Modugno V, Kormushev P, 2021,

    Model predictive control for a tendon-driven surgical robot with safety constraints in kinematics and dynamics

    , Las Vegas, USA, International Conference on Intelligence Robots and Systems (IROS), Pages: 7653-7660

    In fields such as minimally invasive surgery, effective control strategies are needed to guarantee safety andaccuracy of the surgical task. Mechanical designs and actuationschemes have inevitable limitations such as backlash and jointlimits. Moreover, surgical robots need to operate in narrowpathways, which may give rise to additional environmentalconstraints. Therefore, the control strategies must be capableof satisfying the desired motion trajectories and the imposedconstraints. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has proven effective for this purpose, allowing to solve an optimal problem bytaking into consideration the evolution of the system states, costfunction, and constraints over time. The high nonlinearities intendon-driven systems, adopted in many surgical robots, are difficult to be modelled analytically. In this work, we use a modellearning approach for the dynamics of tendon-driven robots.The dynamic model is then employed to impose constraintson the torques of the robot under consideration and solve anoptimal constrained control problem for trajectory trackingby using MPC. To assess the capabilities of the proposedframework, both simulated and real world experiments havebeen conducted

  • Journal article
    Kuntz J, Thomas P, Stan G-B, Barahona Met al., 2021,

    Stationary distributions of continuous-time Markov chains: a review of theory and truncation-based approximations

    , SIAM Review, ISSN: 0036-1445

    Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chaininvolves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, thenumber of equations is infinite or too large, and cannot be solved analyticallyor numerically. Several approximation schemes overcome this issue by truncatingthe state space to a manageable size. In this review, we first give acomprehensive theoretical account of the stationary distributions and theirrelation to the long-term behaviour of the Markov chain, which is readilyaccessible to non-experts and free of irreducibility assumptions made instandard texts. We then review truncation-based approximation schemes payingparticular attention to their convergence and to the errors they introduce, andwe illustrate their performance with an example of a stochastic reactionnetwork of relevance in biology and chemistry. We conclude by elaborating oncomputational trade-offs associated with error control and some open questions.

  • Journal article
    Quilodrán-Casas C, Silva VS, Arcucci R, Heaney CE, Guo Y, Pain CCet al., 2021,

    Digital twins based on bidirectional LSTM and GAN for modelling COVID-19

    The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spreadthroughout the globe infecting over 100 million people and causing the death ofover 2.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics ofepidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseasesspread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recentadvances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks withthe ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computationalcosts. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to anidealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatialvariation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virusspreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from a data-correctedBidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network and a predictive GenerativeAdversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accuratewhen compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworksare data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UKor in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRSmodel, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.

  • Journal article
    Espinosa-González AB, Delaney BC, Marti J, Darzi Aet al., 2021,

    The role of the state in financing and regulating primary care in Europe: a taxonomy

    , Health Policy, Vol: 125, Pages: 168-176, ISSN: 0168-8510

    Traditional health systems typologies were based on health system financing type, such as the well-known OECD typology. However, the number of dimensions captured in classifications increased to reflect health systems complexity. This study aims to develop a taxonomy of primary care (PC) systems based on the actors involved (state, societal and private) and mechanisms used in governance, financing and regulation, which conceptually represents the degree of decentralisation of functions. We use nonlinear canonical correlations analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering on data obtained from the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policy and informants from 24 WHO European Region countries. We obtain four clusters: 1) Bosnia Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia and Switzerland: corporatist and/or fragmented PC system, with state involvement in PC supply regulation, without gatekeeping; 2) Greece, Ireland, Israel, Malta, Sweden, and Ukraine: public and (re)centralised PC financing and regulation with private involvement, without gatekeeping; 3) Finland, Norway, Spain and United Kingdom: public financing and devolved regulation and organisation of PC, with gatekeeping; and 4) Bulgaria, Croatia, France, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Turkey: public and deconcentrated with professional involvement in supply regulation, and gatekeeping. This taxonomy can serve as a framework for performance comparisons and a means to analyse the effect that different actors and levels of devolution or fragmentation of PC delivery may have in health outcomes.

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