@article{Yan:2016:10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.027,
author = {Yan, X and Minnhagen, P and Jensen, HJ},
doi = {10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.027},
journal = {Physica A - Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications},
pages = {112--119},
title = {The likely determines the unlikely},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.027},
volume = {456},
year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - We point out that the functional form describing the frequency of sizes of events in complexsystems (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires, bursts of neuronal activity) can be obtained from maximallikelihood inference, which, remarkably, only involve a few available observed measures such asnumber of events, total event size and extremes. Most importantly, the method is able to predictwith high accuracy the frequency of the rare extreme events. To be able to predict the few, oftenbig impact events, from the frequent small events is of course of great general importance. For adata set of wind speed we are able to predict the frequency of gales with good precision. We analyseseveral examples ranging from the shortest length of a recruit to the number of Chinese characterswhich occur only once in a text.
AU  - Yan,X
AU  - Minnhagen,P
AU  - Jensen,HJ
DO  - 10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.027
EP  - 119
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 0378-4371
SP  - 112
TI  - The likely determines the unlikely
T2  - Physica A - Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.027
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/30959
VL  - 456
ER  - 

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