The use of mathematical modeling in the HIV strategy of the Gates Foundation.
Mathematical models of the evolution of HIV epidemics and the impact of interventions play a crucial role in both developing and executing the Gates Foundation HIV strategy. In this talk I will describe the strategy process and how modeling has informed the foundations strategy over time. I will also describe with examples how modeling supported by the foundation has played a role in guiding policy and practice. The decline in HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa has implications for the cost effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions. Simple modeling that can inform decisions on HIV prevention approaches will be presented along with analyses of the effective coverage of treatment and prevention to achieve global HIV targets.