14:00 – 15:00 – Monica Alexander (University of Toronto)
Title: Estimating historical mortality rates using crowd-sourced online genealogies
Abstract: In recent years, online communities have created historical genealogical records that span multiple continents and contain demographic information for millions of people. However, these data are unrepresentative, and extracting accurate population information is challenging. In this project we develop a Bayesian model to estimate historical mortality rates derived using FamiLinx, a large crowd-sourced genealogical dataset. The model combines structured mortality estimation, incorporating information from gold-standard data, and smooths mortality over age and time, while still allowing for historical shocks to mortality. We illustrate the model on a range of countries, and present new mortality estimates in the 19th-century United States.
Refreshments available between 15:00 – 15:30, Huxley Common Room (HXLY 549)