Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleMonerie PA, Feng X, Hodges K, et al., 2025,
High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.
-
Journal articleRai U, Chen J, Oluleye G, et al., 2025,
Stochastic optimisation model to optimise the contractual generation capacity of a battery-integrated distributed energy resource in a balancing services contract
, Energy, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0360-5442Popular heuristic approaches applied by demand response aggregators often use conservative tactics and may fall short of the contractual generation capacity of a distributed energy resource (DER) allocation in a balancing services (BS) contract. Hence, the possibility of optimising revenue remains generally unexplored. This research presents a novel framework for aggregators by employing a two-stage stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming model to tackle site electricity demand unpredictability and the uncertainty of short-term operating reserve (STOR) calls to find the optimal generation capacity of a diesel generator (DG) to contract in STOR service. In the first stage, K-means clustering for innovative segmentation and rigorously categorising half-hourly site electricity demand data into optimal demand bins is employed. In the second stage, the model integrates a behind-the-meter battery energy storage system (BESS) to enhance performance and evaluate scenarios with and without BESS. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of varying BESS capacities to enhance the contractual capacity of the DG, resulting in significantly improved revenue. A rigorous sensitivity analysis of penalty cost, utilization payment, and storage capacity ensures the robustness of the model across varied conditions. Results show the site revenue increases between 7.91 % and 20.27 % compared to the deterministic MIQCP approach previously employed.
-
ReportZachariah M, Rivera JA, Sörensson AA, et al., 2025,
Consecutive extreme heat and flooding events in Argentina highlight the risk of managing increasingly frequent and intense hazards in a warming climate
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Sparks N, Otto F, et al., 2025,
Building a global and rapid event impact attribution framework
<jats:p>While event attribution has made considerable progress in the last two decades, event impact attribution, which calculates the attributable share of impacts from extreme weather events, remains challenging. Impacts result from the interaction between the intensity of hazards, the exposure of affected areas and the vulnerability of individuals, infrastructures and the environment. Across different types of extreme weather events, impacts and world regions, a wide range of datasets and approaches need to be considered to tackle this complex and interdisciplinary field of research.Here, we aim to develop simple methods that can be deployed rapidly and globally to estimate attributable impacts in the aftermath of extreme weather events. We will present initial work on attributing direct economic impacts from tropical cyclones and on an updated global physical asset database used in this context.This initiative produces near-real-time results that can be communicated in a timely manner to a broad audience, raising awareness about the impacts of extreme weather and the role of climate change. It ultimately seeks to provide valuable information on losses and damages and levels of adaptation, which can be instrumental for policymaking, climate justice and preparing societies for future extremes.</jats:p>
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Sparks N, Otto F, et al., 2025,
Tracking losses and damages from extreme weather events
<jats:p>While the field of event impact attribution is still relatively nascent, diverse methodologies and datasets are starting to be used to put numbers on the share of additional impacts that occur due to climate change during extreme weather events. The growth of this body of evidence has implications for climate litigation as these studies can be starting points for legal cases centred around specific climate change impacts, such as heat-related mortality or economic costs of extreme weather.As we work towards operationalising a tracker that will provide timely estimates of losses and damages from extreme weather events globally, we aim to present results from our initial rapid studies conducted over the past year. We will reflect on the potential implications of the increasing availability of loss and damage information and the broader need for communication and awareness raising around these issues. We also plan to highlight prevailing methodological challenges and areas of research to be advanced in the near future that are relevant for legal efforts.</jats:p>
-
OtherLefauve A, Bassett C, Plotnick D, et al., 2025,
The structure of stratified mixing by shear instability in baroclinically forced shear flows
<jats:p>We present observational data from the mouth of the Connecticut River, a shallow salt-wedge estuary characterised by intense interfacial mixing. The motivation is to better understand, and ultimately predict, density-stratified turbulent mixing driven by shear instabilities at high Reynolds numbers (Re > 10^5). Such processes span an immense turbulent energy cascade across eight orders of magnitude, from coherent instabilities at kilometre scales to the smallest mixing eddies at micrometre scales. Using multi-beam echo-sounding imagery, we reveal the spatial structure and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing with unprecedented detail. During the flood tide, large-scale topography and hydraulics cause the pycnocline to slope, which triggers, through baroclinic forcing, primary shear instabilities in the form of long trains of Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. Our data demonstrate that at Re ~ 5x10^5, mixing occurs primarily by turbulence in the braids connecting the cores of the billows rather than within the cores themselves. This secondary 'braid turbulence' is continuously forced by the secondary baroclinic generation of shear within the sloping braids. This finding challenges the prevailing paradigm built upon direct numerical simulations (DNS) at lower Reynolds numbers (Re ~ 10^3-10^4), where mixing is thought to occur primarily by overturning in the billow cores. This distinction is a significant shift in understanding the high-Re turbulent cascade in mixing hotspots, with potential implications for mixing parameterisations in the coastal ocean.</jats:p>
-
OtherLinden P, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
Hydraulic control, turbulence and mixing in stratified buoyancy-driven exchange flows
<jats:p>Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in geophysical contexts, such as flows through straits, often create a partially-mixed intermediate layer through mixing between the two stratified counterflowing turbulent layers. We present a three-layer hydraulic analysis of such flows, highlighting the dynamical importance of the intermediate layer. Our model is based on the viscous, shallow water, Boussinesq equations and includes the effects of mixing as a non-hydrostatic pressure forcing. We apply this shallow-water formulation to direct numerical simulations of stratified inclined duct (SID) exchange flows where turbulence is controlled by a modest slope of the duct. We show that the nonlinear characteristics of the three-layer model correspond to linear long waves perturbing the three-layer mean flow, and predict, in agreement with recent experimental observations in SID, hydraulically-controlled regions in the middle of the duct, linked to the onset of instability and turbulence. We also provide the first evidence of long-wave resonance, as well as resonance between long and short waves, and their connection to transitions from intermittent to fully developed turbulence. These results challenge current parameterisations for turbulent transport in stratified exchange flows, which typically overlook long waves and internal hydraulics induced by streamwise variations of the flow.</jats:p>
-
OtherLefauve A, Zhu L, Jiang X, et al., 2025,
New insights into experimental stratified flows obtained through a physics-informed neural network
<jats:p>We develop a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to significantly augment state-of-the-art experimental data of stratified flows. A fully connected deep neural network is trained using experimental data in a salt-stratified inclined duct (SID) experiment. SID sustains a buoyancy-driven exchange flow for long time periods, much like an infinite gravity current. The data consist of time-resolved, three-component velocity fields and density fields measured simultaneously in three dimensions at Reynolds number= O(10^3) and at Prandtl or Schmidt number = 700 [1]. The PINN enforces incompressibility, the governing equations for momentum and buoyancy, and the boundary conditions at the duct walls. These physics-constrained, augmented data are output at an increased spatio-temporal resolution and demonstrate five key results: (i) the elimination of measurement noise; (ii) the correction of distortion caused by the scanning measurement technique; (iii) the identification of weak but dynamically important three-dimensional vortices of Holmboe waves; (iv) the revision of turbulent energy budgets and mixing efficiency; and (v) the prediction of the latent pressure field and its role in the observed asymmetric Holmboe wave dynamics. These results mark a significant step forward in furthering the reach of fluid mechanics experiments, especially in the context of stratified turbulence, where accurately computing three-dimensional gradients and resolving small scales remain enduring challenges.References[1] L. Zhu, X. Jiang, A. Lefauve, R. R. Kerswell, and P. F. Linden. New insights into experimentalstratified flows obtained through physics-informed neural networks. J. Fluid Mech., 981:R1, 2024.</jats:p>
-
ReportClarke B, Zachariah M, Pinto I, et al., 2025,
Increasing extreme rainfall and rapid urbanisation major drivers behind Gaborone’s deadly floods
-
ReportKew S, Pinto I, Philip S, et al., 2025,
Women and girls continue to bear disproportionate impacts of heatwaves in South Sudan that have become a constant threat
-
Journal articleLefauve A, Cheung YHM, Jiang X, et al., 2025,
Routes to stratified turbulence and temporal intermittency revealed by a cluster-based network model of experimental data
, EPL, Vol: 149, ISSN: 0295-5075Modelling fluid turbulence using a “skeleton” of coherent structures has traditionally progressed by focusing on a few canonical laboratory experiments such as pipe flow and Taylor-Couette flow. We here consider the stratified inclined duct, a sustained shear flow whose density stratification allows for the exploration of a wealth of new coherent and intermittent states at significantly higher Reynolds numbers than in unstratified flows. We automatically identify the underlying turbulent skeleton of this experiment with a data-driven method combining dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering of shadowgraph visualisations. We demonstrate the existence of multiple types of turbulence across parameter space and intermittent cycling between them, revealing distinct transition pathways. With a cluster-based network model of intermittency we uncover patterns in the transition probabilities and residence times under increasing levels of turbulent dissipation. Our method and results pave the way for new reduced-order models of multi-physics turbulence.
-
Journal articleWang T, Iriawan H, Peng J, et al., 2025,
Confined Water for Catalysis: Thermodynamic Properties and Reaction Kinetics.
, Chem Rev, Vol: 125, Pages: 1420-1467Water is a salient component in catalytic systems and acts as a reactant, product and/or spectator species in the reaction. Confined water in distinct local environments can display significantly different behaviors from that of bulk water. Therefore, the wide-ranging chemistry of confined water can provide tremendous opportunities to tune the reaction kinetics. In this review, we focus on drawing the connection between confined water properties and reaction kinetics for heterogeneous (electro)catalysis. First, the properties of confined water are presented, where the enthalpy, entropy, and dielectric properties of water can be regulated by tuning the geometry and hydrophobicity of the cavities. Second, experimental and computational studies that investigate the interactions between water and inorganic materials, such as carbon nanotubes (1D confinement), charged metal or metal oxide surfaces (2D), zeolites and metal-organic frameworks (3D) and ions/solvent molecules (0D), are reviewed to demonstrate the opportunity to create confined water structures with unique H-bonding network properties. Third, the role of H-bonding structure and dynamics in governing the activation free energy, reorganization energy and pre-exponential factor for (electro)catalysis are discussed. We highlight emerging opportunities to enhance proton-coupled electron transfer by optimizing interfacial H-bond networks to regulate reaction kinetics for the decarbonization of chemicals and fuels.
-
Journal articleJiang J, Chen Y, Zhang R, et al., 2025,
New insights on the impact of light, photoperiod and temperature on the reproduction of green algae <i>Ulva prolifera</i> via transcriptomics and physiological analyses
, MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN, Vol: 211, ISSN: 0025-326X -
ReportBarnes C, Keeping T, Madakumbura G, et al., 2025,
Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Yesil B, Menke I, et al., 2025,
How can overshoot risks be included in long-term adaptation planning?
<jats:p>As climate change intensifies, it is essential to take a wide range of climate scenarios and their consequential impacts into account for adaptation planning. Overshoot scenarios, during which global warming will temporarily exceed the 1.5&#176;C Paris Agreement target before it is brought down again in the following decades, are increasingly likely under current emissions trajectories. They would result in complex risks such as limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts and stress the need to prepare long-term adaptation plans under deep uncertainty.Here, we introduce the latest version of the Overshooting Proofing Methodology, a self-assessment tool designed to guide adaptation planners and policy-makers to integrate overshoot risks into planning processes, and present novel insights from its application with key stakeholders at city and regional levels. We also reflect on how adaptation pathways can allow to adequately plan a sequence of adaptation measures over time based on information collected through this tool. Its initial implementation in selected cities/regions reflects its applicability in varied climatic settings together with a range of climate related challenges. This work provides insights on key data gaps, capacity building needs and avenues for future adaptation planning, policy-making and research.</jats:p>
-
ReportJennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, et al., 2025,
How have the UK public been affected by extreme heat and what do they think about the risks that it poses in the future?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report concluded that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and extreme heat has increased globally as a result of climate change. Such extremes of temperature negatively affect people’s physical and mental health.These slides summarise findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 897 people who were asked to share their experience of heatwaves and very hot weather in the UK. The survey was conducted via the platform Prolific.com between 2-4 October 2024.
-
Journal articlePfleiderer P, Frölicher TL, Kropf CM, et al., 2025,
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information
, Nature Geoscience, Vol: 18, Pages: 10-19, ISSN: 1752-0894Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thresholds, including at the local level, to emissions pathways. We outline the socioeconomic and value judgement dimensions that can inform the identification of such risk thresholds. The applicability of the approach is highlighted by three examples that estimate the required CO2 emissions constraints to avoid critical levels of health-related heat risks in Berlin, fire weather in Portugal and glacier mass loss in High Mountain Asia. We argue that linking risk threshold exceedance directly to global emissions benchmarks can aid the understanding of the benefits of stringent emissions reductions for societies and local decision-makers.
-
Journal articleLai T, Toumi R, 2025,
Sensitivity of the energy conversion efficiency of tropical cyclones during intensification to sea surface temperature and static stability
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 151, ISSN: 0035-9009It is projected that the sea surface temperature (SST) increases under climate change and enhances tropical cyclone (TC) intensification directly. An opposing expected feature of climate change is the strengthening atmospheric static stability, which may suppress intensification. The intensity and diabatic heating are closely related through the secondary circulation, but it has been unclear whether both will change at the same rate. Here we show that they respond differently to stability changes. The efficiency of converting diabatic heating to kinetic energy (KE) of TCs to SST and static stability during the intensification stage is examined. In a set of idealised simulations, the efficiency does not have a significant relation with the SST. However the efficiency is found to decrease with increasing static stability at a rate of about -5 % ⋅K‾¹. It is shown that the KE increment declines, while the diabatic heating in the eyewall remains unchanged with larger static stability. The decrease in KE gain at the eyewall is associated with an enhanced outward advection of absolute angular momentum. The combined effect of enhanced water‐vapour supply and the slightly reduced updraft at the eyewall keeps the diabatic heating steady with varying static stability. This study demonstrates the complex effects of enhanced static stability, which is expected to accompany surface warming, on tropical cyclones.
-
ReportOtto F, Giguere J, Clarke B, et al., 2024,
When risks become reality: extreme weather in 2024
-
Journal articleLi M, Toumi R, 2024,
On the Temporal Decay of Tropical Cyclones Over the Ocean
, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276 -
ReportMerz N, Clarke B, Basconcillo J, et al., 2024,
Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines, highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events
-
Journal articleBozigar M, Konstantinoudis G, Vieira CLZ, et al., 2024,
Domestic radon exposure and childhood cancer risk by site and sex in 727 counties in the United States, 2001-2018
, SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 954, ISSN: 0048-9697 -
Journal articleSavage T, del Rio Chanona A, Oluleye G, 2024,
Assessing robust policies for the adoption of low-carbon technologies under uncertainty
, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 482, ISSN: 0959-6526Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. However, existing models are limited in their ability to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in generating sufficient demand to reduce cost in the face of uncertainty. Such a model is vital for assessing policy-instruments for the implementation of future uncertain energy scenarios. We formulate a novel robust market potential assessment problem under uncertainty to support low carbon technology adoption, resulting in policies that are more immune to uncertain factors. We demonstrate two case studies: the potential use of carbon capture and storage for iron and steel production across the EU, and the transition to hydrogen from natural gas in steam boilers across the chemicals industry in the UK. We show that when parameters are jointly 5% uncertain, the robust policy for CCUS adoption results in a 40% increase in cost. Each robust optimisation problem is solved using an iterative cutting planes algorithm which enables existing models to be solved under uncertainty. By taking advantage of parallelisation we are able to solve the nonlinear robust market assessment problem for technology adoption in times within the same order of magnitude as the nominal problem. Our model demonstrates the possibility of locating robust policies for the implementation of low-carbon technologies, as well as providing direct insights for policy-makers into the decrease in policy effectiveness that results from increasing robustness. The approach we present is extensible to a large number of alternative technology adoption problems under uncertainty.
-
Journal articleThomas A, Theokritoff E, 2024,
Adaptation constraints, limits and enabling conditions in small island developing states
, CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 71, ISSN: 1877-3435 -
Journal articleVineis P, Mangone L, Belesova K, et al., 2024,
Integration of multiple climate change mitigation actions and health co-benefits: a framework using the Global Calculator
, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 132, ISSN: 0091-6765Background:The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world’s energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary.Objectives:Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits.Methods:Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the “4-degree Celsius increase scenario”), we simulated changes in different policy “levers” (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools.Discussion:Our simulations suggest that—after accounting for demographic change—transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than chan
-
Working paperRogelj J, Lamboll R, Jennifer B, 2024,
Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
-
Working paperBird J, Hope G, Smith S, et al., 2024,
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
-
ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Barnes C, et al., 2024,
10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters
-
Journal articleHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,
Deterministic and stochastic geometric mechanics for Hall magnetohydrodynamics
, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, Vol: 480, ISSN: 1364-5021 -
ReportPinto I, Clarke B, Philip S, et al., 2024,
Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
View publications by:
Topic
Climate Science
Earth and Life Sciences
Energy and Low-Carbon Futures
Resources and Pollution
Economics and Finance
Health
View all publications and browse by year
Publication type
Briefing papers and Briefing notes
Grantham Institute Outlooks
Evidence & submission papers
Infographics