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ReportAllan J, Donovan C, Ekins P, et al., 2020,
A net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19
, A net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19, www.imperial.ac.uk/Grantham, Publisher: COP26 Universities Network, 1This briefing identifies key recovery policies that the UK government could introduce to both respond to the crisis of COVID-19, and support the country in meeting its commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Schuhmacher D, Ammann RA, et al., 2020,
Bayesian spatial modelling of childhood cancer incidence in Switzerland using exact point data: a nationwide study during 1985-2015
, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GEOGRAPHICS, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1476-072X- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 7
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ReportHirst N, 2020,
Paying for net-zero – The fiscal framework for the UK’s transitionto low-carbon energy
, Paying for net-zero – The fiscal framework for the UK’s transitionto low-carbon energy, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, Discussion Paper 5Strong action must be taken to achieve the UK’s target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. From a financial perspective, this will require a combination of carbon taxation, regulation and direct government intervention, and the willingness of the public to adapt will be crucial. This paper reviews the options available and calls for wide ranging public debate.
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Journal articleBruneau N, Wang S, Toumi R, 2020,
Long memory impact of ocean mesoscale temperature anomalies on tropical cyclone size
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 47, ISSN: 0094-8276Mesoscale ocean temperature anomalies modify a tropical cyclone (TC). Through a modeling study we show that, while the maximum wind speed is rapidly restored after the TC passes a warm‐ or cold‐ (eddy size) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the storm size changes are more significant and persistent. The radius of gale force winds and integrated kinetic energy (IKE) can change by more than 10% per degree and this endures several days after crossing an SST anomaly. These properties have a long memory of the impact from the ocean fluxes and depend on the integrated history of SST exposure. They are found to be directly proportional to the storm total precipitation. Accurate continuous forecast of the SST along the track may therefore be of central importance to improving predictions of size and IKE, while instantaneous local SST near the TC core is more important for the forecast of maximum wind speed.
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Journal articleIto K, Wu C-C, Chan KTF, et al., 2020,
Recent progress in the fundamental understanding of tropical cyclone motion
, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol: 98, Pages: 5-17, ISSN: 0026-1165While the fundamental understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) movement is fairly mature, notable advancements are still being made. This paper summarizes new concepts and updates to the existing fundamental theories on TC movement obtained from simplified barotropic models, full-physics models, and data analysis, particularly since 2014. The scope includes recent works on the interaction between a TC and its environment, and the predictability related to TC movement. Although conventional concepts of steering flow, β-gyre, and diabatic heating remain important, a more complete understanding of TC movement governing mechanisms can provide an important basis for further track forecast improvements.
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Journal articleOjeda AS, Phillips E, Sherwood Lollar B, 2020,
Multi-element (C, H, Cl, Br) stable isotope fractionation as a tool to investigate transformation processes for halogenated hydrocarbons.
, Environ Sci Process Impacts, Vol: 22, Pages: 567-582Compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) is a powerful tool to evaluate transformation processes of halogenated compounds. Many halogenated hydrocarbons allow for multiple stable isotopic systems (C, H, Cl, Br) to be measured for a single compound. This has led to a large body of literature describing abiotic and biotic transformation pathways and reaction mechanisms for contaminants such as chlorinated alkenes and alkanes as well as brominated hydrocarbons. Here, the current literature is reviewed and a new compilation of Λ values for multi-isotopic systems for halogenated hydrocarbons is presented. Case studies of each compound class are discussed and thereby the current strengths of multi-element isotope analysis, continuing challenges, and gaps in our current knowledge are identified for practitioners of multi-element CSIA to address in the near future.
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ReportBaranda Alonso J, Sandwell P, 2020,
Sustainable mini-grid systems in refugee camps: A case study of Rwanda
, Sustainable mini-grid systems in refugee camps: A case study of Rwanda, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 12This briefing note considers how clean energy solutions can be used by humanitarian organisations to both reduce the cost and environmental footprint of their operations, and promote the resilience and independence of displaced communities. Using Rwanda as a case study, the authors provide recommendations for how the private sector and policymakers can encourage greener humanitarian operations.
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Journal articleZhou Z, Liu X, Li C, et al., 2020,
Seawater-assisted synthesis of MnCe/zeolite-13X for removing elemental mercury from coal-fired flue gas
, Fuel, Vol: 262, ISSN: 0016-2361To develop an efficient and low-cost sorbent for removing elemental mercury (Hg<sup>0</sup>) from chlorine-free coal-fired flue gas, the Na-13X zeolite (Z13X) was modified by the natural seawater and MnOx-CeO<inf>2</inf>. The elemental mercury removal activity over the developed sorbents was tested under a simulated coal-fired flue gas on a lab-scale fixed bed reactor. The novel sorbents were characterized by XRF, XRD, XPS, nitrogen adsorption and Hg-TPD. For the seawater-modified Z13X samples, the Cl species in the seawater were the main active species for Hg<sup>0</sup> removal. The optimal reaction temperature was in the range of 250–350 °C. For the seawater- and MnCe oxides- comodified sorbents, the experimental results suggested that the Cl species in the seawater and the loaded metal oxides were responsible for the superior Hg<sup>0</sup> capture activity. For the seawater modified sorbents, the best Hg<sup>0</sup> capture activity could be achieved with loading only 1 wt% metal oxides on the Z13X. The elemental mercury removal activity tests showed that the co-modified sorbents exhibited superior and stable elemental mercury removal efficiency (>95%) for temperatures between 200 °C and 350 °C and with a flow rate-to-mass value of 2 × 10<sup>5</sup> mL/(h·g). Based on the XPS results of the surface Cl, O and metals species, the active chlorine species generated from the reactions between the adsorbed seawater chlorine and the metal oxides were responsible for enhancing the performance.
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Working paperKonstantinoudis G, Schuhmacher D, Rue H, et al., 2020,
Discrete versus continuous domain models for disease mapping
, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD- Cite
- Citations: 12
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ReportCeppi P, Gregory J, 2020,
Climate sensitivity: What is it, and why is it important?
, Climate sensitivity: What is it, and why is it important?, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 11Climate sensitivity is a fundamental measure of global climate change. This briefing paper explains how climate sensitivity is estimated from different lines of evidence – modelling, observations, and palaeoclimate records – and why its exact value remains uncertain.
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Journal articleEscudero-Escribano M, Biegel CM, Kamat PV, 2020,
Women Scientists at the Forefront of Energy Research: A Virtual Issue, Part 2
, ACS ENERGY LETTERS, Vol: 5, Pages: 623-633, ISSN: 2380-8195- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 3
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Journal articlePhillips E, Gilevska T, Horst A, et al., 2020,
Transformation of Chlorofluorocarbons Investigated via Stable Carbon Compound-Specific Isotope Analysis.
, Environ Sci Technol, Vol: 54, Pages: 870-878Compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) is a valuable tool in contaminant remediation studies. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are ozone-depleting substances previously thought to be persistent in groundwater under most geochemical conditions but more recently have been found to (bio)transform in some laboratory experiments. To date, limited applications of CSIA to CFCs have been undertaken. Here, biotransformation-associated carbon isotope enrichment factors, εC,bulk for CFC-113 (εC,bulk = -8.5 ± 0.4‰) and CFC-11 (εC,bulk = -14.5 ± 1.9‰), were determined. δ13C signatures of pure-phase CFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons were measured to establish source signatures. These findings were applied to investigate potential in situ CFC transformation in groundwater at a field site, where carbon isotope fractionation of CFC-11 suggests naturally occurring biotransformation by indigenous microorganisms. The maximum extent of CFC-11 transformation is estimated to be up to 86% by an approximate calculation using the Rayleigh concept. CFC-113 δ13C values in contrast were not resolvably different from pure-phase sources measured to date, demonstrating that CSIA can aid in identifying which compounds may, or may not, be undergoing reactive processes at field sites. Science and public attention remains focused on CFCs, as unexplained source inputs to the atmosphere have been recently reported, and the potential for CFC biotransformation in surface and groundwaters remains unclear. This study proposes δ13C CSIA as a novel application to study the fate of CFCs in groundwater.
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Journal articleParks RM, Bennett JE, Tamura-Wicks H, et al., 2020,
Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths
, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 65-70, ISSN: 1078-8956Temperatures which deviate from long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes.1 There is limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. Here, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980-2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement,2 would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-37 1,776) additional injury deaths. 84% of these additional deaths would occur in males, mostly in adolescent to middle ages. These deaths would comprise of increases in deaths 39 from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously high temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.
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Journal articleOluleye G, 2020,
A novel optimisation framework to support increased uptake of low carbon industrial energy systems
, Chemical Engineering Transactions, Vol: 81, Pages: 1063-1068, ISSN: 1974-9791© 2020 Italian Association of Chemical Engineering - AIDIC. All rights reserved. Combustion of fossil fuels in industrial energy systems (IES) is responsible for over 45 % of CO2 emissions. Low Carbon IES will go a long way in achieving the climate goal of the Paris Agreement; yet, uptake of concepts to deliver low carbon IES is slow. Cost and emissions minimisation based optimisation frameworks applied to design and assess IES, though important, are not able to directly quantify the uptake of new technologies to deliver low carbon IES in a country or region. This work presents a novel MINLP framework capable of directly maximing the adoption of low carbon IES within a country and region whilst determining the optimal energy flows and associate costs. The method is applied to a case stufy of 6,181 energy systems in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in 27 EU countries to support increased adoption of technology switching (from combustion to electrochemistry), and fuel switching (from natural gas to biogas). Results show that without policy interventions uptake of these measures is only in 0.2 % of the plants located in Denmark, with policy intervention uptake increases to 60 % in more countries. The novel framework shows how the uptake of a new cleaner technology in a country or region can be accelerated.
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Journal articleChasapis CT, Konstantinoudis G, 2020,
Protein isoelectric point distribution in the interactomes across the domains of life
, BIOPHYSICAL CHEMISTRY, Vol: 256, ISSN: 0301-4622- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 11
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Journal articleBelghachem N, Mahfoudia O, Bensalah N, et al., 2020,
Performance analysis of spread spectrum techniques for laser remote sensing multiple-input multiple-output systems
, OPTICAL ENGINEERING, Vol: 59, ISSN: 0091-3286- Cite
- Citations: 1
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Journal articlePhillipson L, Toumi R, 2019,
Assimilation of satellite salinity for modelling the Congo River plume
, Remote Sensing, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 2072-4292Abstract:Satellite salinity data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was recently enhanced, increasing the spatial extent near the coast that eluded earlier versions. In a pilot attempt we assimilate this data into a coastal ocean model (ROMS) using variational assimilation and for the first time, investigate the impact on the simulation of a major river plume (the Congo River). Four experiments were undertaken consisting of a control (without data assimilation) and5the assimilation of either sea surface height, SMOS and the combination of both. Several metrics specific to the plume were utilised, including the area of the plume, distance to the centre of mass, orientation and average salinity. The assimilation of SMOS and SMOS-SSH consistently produced the best results in the plume analysis. Argo float salinity profiles provided independent verification of the forecast. The SMOS or SMOS-SSH forecast produced the closest agreement for Argo profiles over the whole domain (outside and inside the plume) for three of four months analysed, improving over the control and a persistence baseline. The number of samples of Argo floats determined to be inside the plume were limited. Nevertheless, for the limited plume-detected floats the largest improvements were found for the SMOS or SMOS-SSH forecast for two of the four months.
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ReportShrimali G, Agarwal N, Donovan C, 2019,
Drivers in solar deployment in India: A state-level analysis
, Drivers in solar deployment in India: A state-level analysis, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham InstituteThis report considers the drivers of inter-state solar power deployment in India, and what mix of policies are most appropriate to help India reachits ambitious solar power targets
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Journal articleHwang J, Feng Z, Charles N, et al., 2019,
Tuning perovskite oxides by strain: Electronic structure, properties, and functions in (electro)catalysis and ferroelectricity
, MATERIALS TODAY, Vol: 31, Pages: 100-118, ISSN: 1369-7021- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 239
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Journal articleSparks N, Hon KK, Chan PW, et al., 2019,
Aircraft observations of tropical cyclone boundary layer turbulence over the South China Sea
, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 76, Pages: 3773-3783, ISSN: 0022-4928There have been no high-frequency aircraft observations of tropical cyclone (TC) eyewall boundary layer turbulence since two flights into Atlantic hurricanes in the 1980s. We present an analysis of the first TC boundary layer flight observations in the South China Sea by the Hong Kong Observatory comprising four eyewall penetrations. We derive the vertical flux of momentum and vertical momentum diffusivity from observed turbulence parameters. We observe negative (upward) vertical fluxes of tangential momentum near the eyewall consistent with a jet below the flight level near the radius of maximum wind. Our observations of vertical momentum diffusivity support a superlinear relationship between diffusivity and wind speed at the high wind speeds in the inner-core of TCs (power-law exponent of 1.73 ± 0.20) while the few existing boundary layer hurricane observations in the North Atlantic suggest a more linear relationship.
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ReportVoulvoulis N, Zogheib C, 2019,
Climate change and the human-made water cycle: Implications for the UK water sector
, Climate change and the human-made water cycle: Implications for the UK water sector, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, Briefing paper number 32Climate change is already happening, and the UK’s climate will continue to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with the long-term resilience of its infrastructure at risk.The water sector cannot adapt to the challenges of climate change in isolation, as policy effects in one sector will have indirect effects in others.Current demand pressures and reductions in abstraction licences – rights to draw water – are causing supply-demand deficits and this is coupled to the impacts of climate change. If no action is taken, the current high standards of service that is offered at a fair price, and without causing environmental damage, could soon be at risk.While impact on water flows might not yet be measurable, there is evidence to show that if water companies carry on with ‘business as usual’, we risk a future without enough water for people, business, farmers, wildlife and the environment.With water as the key medium that links atmospheric temperature rises to changes in human and physical systems, government, water companies and all the players in the wider sector need to play a more proactive role in accelerating the transition to a circular economy, while helping people, politicians and decision makers to understand and prepare for the risks of climate change.
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ReportLevey S, Gilbert A, 2019,
Grantham Institute Outlook 2019-2020
, Grantham Institute Outlook 2019-2020, Grantham Institute, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 10The flagship publication of Imperial College London's Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, which showcases how the institute is tackling the challenges of climate and environmental change.
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Journal articleLefauve A, Partridge JL, Linden PF, 2019,
Regime transitions and energetics of sustained stratified shear flows
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 875, Pages: 657-698, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 17
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Journal articleKim J, Cao XE, Finkelstein JL, et al., 2019,
A two-colour multiplexed lateral flow immunoassay system to differentially detect human malaria species on a single test line.
, Malar J, Vol: 18BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to impose a tremendous burden in terms of global morbidity and mortality, yet even today, a large number of diagnoses are presumptive resulting in lack of or inappropriate treatment. METHODS: In this work, a two-colour lateral flow immunoassay (LFA) system was developed to identify infections by Plasmodium spp. and differentiate Plasmodium falciparum infection from the other three human malaria species (Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae). To achieve this goal, red and blue colours were encoded to two markers on a single test line of strips, for simultaneous detection of PfHRP2 (red), a marker specific for P. falciparum infection, and pLDH (blue), a pan-specific marker for infections by all species of Plasmodium. The assay performance was first optimized and evaluated with recombinant malarial proteins spiked in washing buffer at various concentrations from 0 to 1000 ng mL-1. The colour profiles developed on the single test line were discriminated and quantified: colour types corresponded to malaria protein species; colour intensities represented protein concentration levels. RESULTS: The limit of detection (the lowest concentrations of malaria antigens that can be distinguished from blank samples) and the limit of colour discrimination (the limit to differentiate pLDH from PfHRP2) were defined for the two-colour assay from the spiked buffer test, and the two limits were 31.2 ng mL-1 and 7.8 ng mL-1, respectively. To further validate the efficacy of the assay, 25 human whole blood frozen samples were tested and successfully validated against ELISA and microscopy results: 15 samples showed malaria negative; 5 samples showed P. falciparum positive; 5 samples showed P. falciparum negative, but contained other malaria species. CONCLUSIONS: The assay provides a simple method to quickly identify and differentiate infection by different malarial parasites at the point-of-need and overcome the
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BookSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Energy Innovation for the Twenty-First Century: Accelerating the Energy Revolution
, Publisher: Edward Elgar, ISBN: 978 1 78811 261 1This book addresses the question: how effective are countries in promoting the innovation needed to facilitate an energy transition? At the heart of the book is a set of empirical case studies covering supply and demand side technologies at different levels of maturity in a variety of countries. The case studies are set within an analytical framework encompassing the functions of technological innovation systems and innovation metrics. The book concludes with lessons and recommendations for effective policy intervention.
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Journal articleSommer G, Schindler M, Redmond S, et al., 2019,
Temporal trends in incidence of childhood cancer in Switzerland, 1985-2014
, CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 61, Pages: 157-164, ISSN: 1877-7821- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 19
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Journal articleMezzavilla S, Katayama Y, Rao R, et al., 2019,
Activity-or Lack Thereof-of RuO2-Based Electrodes in the Electrocatalytic Reduction of CO2
, JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 123, Pages: 17765-17773, ISSN: 1932-7447 -
Journal articleOjeda AS, Phillips E, Mancini SA, et al., 2019,
Sources of Uncertainty in Biotransformation Mechanistic Interpretations and Remediation Studies using CSIA.
, Anal Chem, Vol: 91, Pages: 9147-9153Compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) is a powerful tool to understand the fate of organic contaminants. Using CSIA, the isotope ratios of multiple elements (δ13C, δ2H, δ37Cl, δ15N) can be measured for a compound. A dual-isotope plot of the changes in isotope ratios between two elements produces a slope, lambda (Λ), which can be instrumental for practitioners to identify transformation mechanisms. However, practices to calculate and report Λ and related uncertainty are not universal, leading to the potential for misinterpretations. Here, the most common methods are re-evaluated to provide the basis for a more accurate best-practice representation of Λ and its uncertainty. The popular regression technique, ordinary linear regression, can introduce mathematical bias. The York method, which incorporates error in both variables, better adapts to the wide set of data conditions observed for dual-isotope data. Importantly, the existing technique of distinguishing between Λs using the 95% confidence interval alone produces inconsistent results, whereas statistical hypothesis testing provides a more robust method to differentiate Λs. The propensity for Λ to overlap for a variety of conditions and mechanisms highlights the requirement for statistical justification when comparing data sets. Findings from this study emphasize the importance of this evaluation of best practice and provide recommendations for standardizing, calculating, and interpreting dual-isotope data.
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Journal articlewang S, Toumi R, 2019,
Impact of dry midlevel air on the tropical cyclone outer circulation
, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 76, Pages: 1809-1826, ISSN: 0022-4928The impact of dry midlevel air on the outer circulation of tropical cyclones is investigated in idealized simulations with and without a moist envelope protecting the inner core. It is found that a dry midlevel layer away from the cyclone center can broaden the outer primary circulation and thus the overall destructive potential at both developing and mature stages. The midlevel outer drying enhances the horizontal gradient of latent heating in the rainbands and drives the expansion of the outer circulation. The moist convection at large radii is suppressed rapidly after the midlevel air is dried in the outer rainbands. An enhanced horizontal gradient of latent heating initiates a radial-vertical overturning circulation anomaly in the rainbands. This anomalous overturning circulation accelerates the radial inflow of the main secondary circulation, increases the angular momentum import, and thus increases the cyclone size. The dry air, mixed into the boundary layer from the midtroposphere, is “recharged” by high enthalpy fluxes due to the increased thermodynamical disequilibrium above the sea surface. This “recharge” process protects the eyewall convection from the environmental dry air ventilation. The proposed mechanism may explain the continuous expansion in the tropical cyclone outer circulation after maturity as found in observations.
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Journal articleZhou Z, Liu X, Xu J, et al., 2019,
Elemental mercury removal over a novel starch-modified MnOx/bentonite composite
, Fuel Processing Technology, Vol: 187, Pages: 16-20, ISSN: 0378-3820To improve the activity of elemental mercury (Hg<sup>0</sup>) removal over the bentonite supported MnO<inf>x</inf> material (MnO<inf>x</inf>/bentonite), a novel starch-modified MnO<inf>x</inf>/bentonite composite (MnO<inf>x</inf>/starch-bentonite) was synthesized for Hg<sup>0</sup> capture. The Hg<sup>0</sup> removal activity tested under the atmosphere of pure N<inf>2</inf> and in the presence of O<inf>2</inf> showed that the MnO<inf>x</inf>/starch-bentonite exhibited better activity and stability than MnO<inf>x</inf>/bentonite. It was evident that the Hg<sup>0</sup> removal efficiency over the novel catalytic sorbent (BS10M2) only declined by 16.9%, while that over MnO<inf>x</inf>/bentonite fell by 68.7% after a 5 h test under the atmosphere of N<inf>2</inf> + 6%O<inf>2</inf> at 120 °C. The starch modification decreased the surface area but enhanced the surface activity of bentonite, and more activate sites were generated on the surface of bentonite after being impregnated with potassium permanganate (KMnO<inf>4</inf>) solution. The improved Hg<sup>0</sup> removal performance was probably due to the generation of more Mn<sup>4+</sup> and the newly introduced ester groups formed by the partial oxidation reaction between starch and KMnO<inf>4</inf> on the support, which played essential roles in mercury catalytic oxidation and adsorption. The MnO<inf>x</inf> were generated in two ways: KMnO<inf>4</inf> decomposition in a neutral solution condition and KMnO<inf>4</inf> reduction by the starch with hydroxyl groups.
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