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Journal articleToumi R, wong B, 2016,
Effect of extreme ocean precipitation on sea surface elevation and storm surges
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 142, Pages: 2541-2550, ISSN: 1477-870XOcean models that neglect mass and momentum contributions from precipitation can have asystematic bias in sea surface height (SSH). Here, a new rainfall scheme is introduced intothe Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) to incorporate the effects of precipitationmass. When precipitation is added to the sea surface, it spreads out via surface gravity wavesthat increase in propagation speed with increasing water depth. Over several days, the SSHincrease due to the precipitation mass added created a geostrophic adjustment, generatinganti-cyclonic geostrophic currents around the SSH increase. The transfer of momentum fromprecipitation to the sea surface, or rain stress, can also be important. In the case study of areal tropical cyclone, Monica passing North Australia, the effect of incorporatingprecipitation mass is compared with other processes affecting the storm surge: surface wind,inverse barometer effect and rain stress. The maximum SSH response is 170.6 cm for thewind effect, 61.5 cm for the inverse barometer effect, 7.5 cm for the effect of rain stress and6.4 cm for the effect of rain mass. Each process has been shown to have different spatialinfluences. The effect of rain mass has a strong remote influence compared to the inversebarometer effect and the effect of rain stress. This is particularly seen in semi-enclosed bays.
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Journal articlePhibbs S, Toumi R, 2016,
The dependence of precipitation and its footprint on atmospheric temperature in idealized extratropical cyclones
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol: 121, Pages: 8743-8754, ISSN: 2169-8996Flood hazard is a function of the magnitude and spatial pattern of precipitation accumulation.The sensitivity of precipitation to atmospheric temperature is investigated for idealized extratropicalcyclones, enabling us to examine the footprint of extreme precipitation (surface area where accumulatedprecipitation exceeds high thresholds) and the accumulation in different-sized catchment areas. Themean precipitation increases with temperature, with the mean increase at 5.40%/∘C. The 99.9th percentileof accumulated precipitation increases at 12.7%/∘C for 1 h and 9.38%/∘C for 24 h, both greater thanClausius-Clapeyron scaling. The footprint of extreme precipitation grows considerably with temperature,with the relative increase generally greater for longer durations. The sensitivity of the footprint of extremeprecipitation is generally super Clausius-Clapeyron. The surface area of all precipitation shrinks withincreasing temperature. Greater relative changes in the number of catchment areas exceeding extremetotal precipitation are found when the domain is divided into larger rather than smaller catchment areas.This indicates that fluvial flooding may increase faster than pluvial flooding from extratropical cyclones in awarming world. When the catchment areas are ranked in order of total precipitation, the 99.9th percentile isfound to increase slightly above Clausius-Clapeyron expectations for all of the catchment sizes, from 9 km2to 22,500 km2. This is surprising for larger catchment areas given the change in mean precipitation. Wepropose that this is due to spatially concentrated changes in extreme precipitation in the occluded front
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Conference paperRhodes A, van Diemen R, 2016,
Has the Low Carbon Network Fund been successful at stimulating innovation in the electricity networks?
, British Instutite of Energy Economics 2016: Innovation and Disruption: The Energy Sector in TransitionThe physical basis of today’s electricity networks are based on engineering design principles whichhave not changed substantially since World War 2. This has led to a stable, secure but intrinsicallyconservative electricity network system, characterised by small, incremental changes andtechnological advances. However, two major drivers are currently pushing a period of substantialinnovation and change in the networks. The first of these is the need to incorporate increasingquantities of variable renewable generation at distribution level, as well as to prepare for increasinglevels of electrification in heating and transport. The second comprises the new opportunities arisingfrom the incorporation of ICT technology into the networks, including smart metering, smartappliances, demand-side participation and the development of new business models and serviceswhich facilitate active consumer engagement.These drivers challenge the notion of an electricity grid being a simple unidirectional series of wiresand transformers and make the case for a ‘smart grid’, in which information and communicationtechnologies (ICT) are integrated directly into the electricity networks. These advances have thepotential to transform the way customers and supply companies interact with electricity, and providesignificant new commercial opportunities for communications, monitoring, control and dataaggregation technologies throughout the electricity system from generation through to the consumer.New network and smart grid technologies are a major focus in the UK’s low carbon innovationstrategy, with substantial public funding (£81 million p.a) provided through the Ofgem-administeredLow Carbon Network Fund (LCNF) and its successor the Network Innovation Competition (NIC).These are novel programmes, both in the UK and elsewhere due to their structure, which involvesconsortia led by network operating companies bidding for public funds. The LCNF has recentlycompleted i
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Journal articleToumi R, Wong B, 2016,
Model study of the asymmetry in tropical cyclone-induced positive and negative surges
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 17, Pages: 334-338, ISSN: 1530-261XStorm surges pose significant threats to coastal communities, yet negative surges are not aswell understood as positive surges. In this study, idealized experiments of a tropical cycloneforcing a 3D ocean model are conducted to investigate the asymmetry of positive andnegative surges. Negative surges are larger in magnitude and extend further across thecoastline than positive surges. While positive surges are driven by wind blowing onshore,negative surges are largely dominated by alongshore winds, with horizontal divergence as themain mechanism. This asymmetry also increases with decreasing depth and increasinglatitude.
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Journal articleOluleye G, Smith R, Jobson M, 2016,
Modelling and screening heat pump options for the exploitation of low grade waste heat in process sites
, Applied Energy, Vol: 169, Pages: 267-286, ISSN: 0306-2619© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. The need for high efficiency energy systems is of vital importance, due to depleting reserves of fossil fuels and increasing environmental problems. Industrial operations commonly feature the problem of rejecting large quantities of low-grade waste heat to the environment. The aim of this work is to develop methods for the conceptual screening and incorporation of low-temperature heat upgrading technologies in process sites.The screening process involves determination of the best technology to upgrade waste heat in process sites, and the combination of waste heat source and sink temperatures for a technology. Novel simplified models of mechanical heat pumps, absorption heat pumps and absorption heat transformers are proposed to support this analysis. These models predict the ratio of the real performance to the ideal performance in a more accurate way, than previous simplified models, taking into account the effect of changing operating temperatures, working fluids non-ideal behaviour and the system component inefficiencies.A novel systems-oriented criterion is also proposed for conceptual screening and selection of heat pumps in process sites. The criterion (i.e. the primary fuel recovery ratio) measures the savings in primary fuel from heat upgraded, taking into account power required to drive mechanical heat pumps and missed opportunities for steam generation when absorption systems are used.A graphical based methodology is also developed for applying the PRR in process sites and applied to a medium scale petroleum refinery. Results show that applying the PRR yields 9.2% additional savings in primary fuel compared to using the coefficient of performance to screen and incorporate heat pumps.
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Journal articlePoulain V, Bekki S, Marchand M, et al., 2016,
Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series
, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol: 145, Pages: 61-84, ISSN: 1364-6826The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings. H
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Journal articleGiordano L, Han B, Risch M, et al., 2016,
pH dependence of OER activity of oxides: Current and future perspectives
, CATALYSIS TODAY, Vol: 262, Pages: 2-10, ISSN: 0920-5861- Cite
- Citations: 412
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Conference paperRhodes A, 2016,
What lessons for innovation can be learnt from the Low Carbon Networks Fund?
, EI Energy Systems Conference 2016 -
Journal articleChang S, Cao X, Hsin CH, et al., 2016,
Removal of inclusions using micro-bubble swarms in a four-strand, full-scale, water model tundish
, ISIJ International, Vol: 56, Pages: 1188-1197, ISSN: 0915-1559Water model experiments were performed in a full-scale, delta-shaped water model tundish, in order to study the removal of inclusions by micro-bubbles. Micro-bubbles were generated using a specially designed ladle shroud with twelve laser-drilled orifices. Gas flow rates, injection positions and multi-port injection were all taken into consideration to create different bubble conditions. Bubbles were recorded using a high speed camera and post-processed with commercial software, Image J. Hollow glass borosilicate microspheres, smaller than 100 μm, were used to simulate inclusions, and detected, in-situ, using a new generation of the Aqueous Particle Sensor, APS III. The results revealed that the effect of microbubbles on inclusion removal depends greatly on the gas injection protocols used. The optimum gas flow rate was an intermediate value, which indicates a minimum particle number density, n<inf>p</inf>, of about 7.85/ml. This results from the counter-balancing effects of bubble sizes against the total number of bubbles. The highest inclusion removal rate was 80%, when gas was injected through the four ports located closest to the slide gate, at a gas flow rate of 0.2 L/min.
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Conference paperCao XK, Chang S, Hsin CH, et al., 2016,
An aqueous particle sensor (APS) for micro-bubble detection in a four-strand, full-scale, water model tundish
Due to the increasingly stringent cleanliness requirements for final steel products, there has been a growing interest in the possible use of micro-bubbles for the removal of inclusions with diameters smaller than ~50µm, present within the steel passing through a steelmaking tundish. However, several technological barriers have prevented the adoption of this technique in industry. These are related to a) the generation of micro-bubbles in liquid steel, b) the measurement of bubble size distributions, and c) the optimization of bubble injection conditions to create micro-bubbles. In the present study, a novel Aqueous Particle Sensor (APS) system was developed for the in-situ, on-line, detection of micro-bubbles in water, generated by a newly designed full-scale ladle shroud, located at McGill Metal Processing Centre (MMPC). Measurement results from the sensor were validated against bubble size data collected through a high speed camera and post-processed through the commercial software, Image J. Control variables and orthogonal experiments were designed to assess the dependence of average micro-bubble sizes and bubble size distributions on key experimental parameters. Those chosen were the air inlet flowrate, the distance of the gas injection port from the slide gate, and the number of injection ports used. The investigation demonstrated that the APS system can be successfully adapted to detect micro-bubbles up to ~800 micron diameters. Using this novel sensor, it was shown that multi-port injection using low air inlet flowrates, closer to the slide gate, were useful in forming small micro-bubbles within the flow through the ladle shroud. The results from the APS system were compared and validated against data resulting from an optical technique.
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Journal articleOluleye G, Jobson M, Smith R, et al., 2016,
Evaluating the potential of process sites for waste heat recovery
, Applied Energy, Vol: 161, Pages: 627-646, ISSN: 0306-2619As a result of depleting reserves of fossil fuels, conventional energy sources are becoming less available. In spite of this, energy is still being wasted, especially in the form of heat. The energy efficiency of process sites (defined as useful energy output per unit of energy input) may be increased through waste heat utilisation, thereby resulting in primary energy savings.In this work, waste heat is defined and a methodology developed to identify the potential for waste heat recovery in process sites; considering the temperature and quantity of waste heat sources from the site processes and the site utility system (including fired heaters and, the cogeneration, cooling and refrigeration systems). The concept of the energy efficiency of a site is introduced – the fraction of the energy inputs that is converted into useful energy (heat or power or cooling) to support the methodology. Furthermore, simplified mathematical models of waste heat recovery technologies using heat as primary energy source, including organic Rankine cycles (using both pure and mixed organics as working fluids), absorption chillers and absorption heat pumps are developed to support the methodology. These models are applied to assess the potential for recovery of useful energy from waste heat.The methodology is illustrated for an existing process site using a case study of a petroleum refinery. The energy efficiency of the site increases by 10% as a result of waste heat recovery. If there is an infinite demand for recovered energy (i.e. all the recoverable waste heat sources are exploited), the site energy efficiency could increase by 33%. The methodology also shows that combining technologies into a system creates greater potential to exploit the available waste heat in process sites.
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Journal articleOluleye G, Vasquez L, Smith R, et al., 2016,
A multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Program for design of residential distributed energy centres with thermal demand data discretisation
, Sustainable Production and Consumption, Vol: 5, Pages: 16-28, ISSN: 2352-5509Distributed Energy (DE) has gained significant interest in recent years as a way to maximise the efficient use of fuel for the production of electricity and heat. The concept of DE is to produce energy close to the end users. The increased fuel efficiency allows a significant reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this paper, the sizes and the number of heat and power supply units are determined by an optimisation procedure that minimises the total annual cost. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model is developed to design new DE centres from a portfolio of possible technologies to service the thermal and power demand profiles of a geographic region. In this model, the partial load required for the combined heat and power (CHP) units and the equipment operating schedule in time intervals are selected to meet the demand data. The approach requires that energy demand be represented by discrete time bands to model the variations according to the time of day, day of the week and season of the year. Selection of inappropriate time bands can lead to misleading results. In this paper a systematic procedure for selecting time bands is proposed. The optimisation model is demonstrated in a case study. Results indicate that 70%–86% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible relative to individual building heating systems. Including thermal storage in the design of distributed energy centres achieves 54% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to design without thermal storage, since fossil fuelled units are not operated continuously.
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ReportMacLean K, Gross R, Hannon M, et al., 2015,
Energy system crossroads - time for decisions:UK 2030 low carbon scenarios and pathways - key decision points for a decarbonised energy system
, ICEPT/WP/2015/019 -
Journal articleOluleye G, Jobson M, Smith R, 2015,
A hierarchical approach for evaluating and selecting waste heat utilization opportunities
, Energy, Vol: 90, Pages: 5-23, ISSN: 0360-5442This paper presents a ranking criterion for evaluating opportunities that utilize recovered energy from the available waste heat in process sites. The ranking criterion takes into account the energy performance of waste heat recovery technologies associated with each opportunity, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (namely CO<inf>2</inf>) and the economics (costs and benefits). Mathematical modelling of the opportunities using the ranking criterion is developed to allow for systematic evaluation of opportunities, for example within an optimization framework. A methodology using the ranking criterion to design site waste heat recovery systems is also proposed. The methodology is applied to a case study of a petroleum refinery. Hierarchy and performance of waste heat utilization opportunities depends on the temperature of the heat available, amongst other factors. The site operating cost and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions reduce by 26% and 18% respectively when opportunities to use the recovered energy from waste heat within and outside the process site boundaries are explored. Sensitivity of the ranking to energy prices is studied, to explore the outlook for waste heat utilization in the future. The methodology can be applied to the process industries and other facilities producing waste heat.
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Journal articleBroadbridge MB, Toumi R, 2015,
The deep circulation of the Faroe-Shetland Channel:Opposing flows and topographic eddies
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol: 120, Pages: 5983-5996, ISSN: 2169-9291New insights into the deep circulation of the Faroe-Shetland channel are gained from a highresolutionregional ocean model. The simulation shows a more complex structure of the deep flow fieldthan previously thought: a flow reversal of the deep and intermediate waters to the northeast on the Faroeseflank of the channel and persistent topographic eddies that force the deep currents into a gyre-likestructure. This flow reversal opposes the previously accepted understanding of a purely southwestwarddeep flow but is in agreement with velocity measurements. The southwestward transport of the overflowwaters is found to be facilitated almost exclusively by a strong and narrow current on the Shetland side ofthe channel. Float release experiments show that up to 38% of the overflow water takes longer than apurely southwestward flow regime suggests and up to 13% takes twice as long. From the release of tracers,a substantial amount of lateral mixing is evident within the channel, predominantly facilitated by the topographiceddies.
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Journal articleTamura-Wicks H, Toumi R, Budgell WP, 2015,
Sensitivity of Caspian sea-ice to air temperature
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 141, Pages: 3088-3096, ISSN: 1477-870XCaspian sea ice concentration from satellite passive microwave data and surface daily air temperatures are analysed from 1978 to 2009. Relationships between mean winter air temperatures, cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD) and the sum of daily ice area (cumulative ice area) are found. These show that mean monthly air temperature of less than 5.5–9.5 °C, and a minimum CFDD of 3.6 ± 11.2 °C, are required for ice formation in the northern Caspian. Examination of climate projections from multi-model ensembles of monthly mean air temperatures suggest that the northern Caspian may be largely ice-free by 2100 for the highest emission scenario. An ocean–ice–atmosphere model of the Caspian shows weak sensitivities of the minimum CFDD to varied sea ice albedo and ice compressive strength. Sea level decline is found to reduce the minimum CFDD as well as promote the formation of higher concentration or ‘closed ice’.
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Journal articleWang S, Toumi R, Czaja A, et al., 2015,
An analytic model of tropical cyclone wind profiles
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 141, Pages: 3018-3029, ISSN: 1477-870XA physically based analytic model (λ model) is presented to describe the wind profile of tropical cyclones in terms of the pressure deficit and a single shape parameter (λ). To test the λ model, an idealized full-physics numerical model is employed to provide wind-profile samples and also to show the influence of environmental temperature and the properties of initial vortices on tropical cyclone size. It is found that the λ model provides an accurate fit of the azimuthal wind profile at the top of the boundary layer. In the simulations, tropical cyclone size is sensitive to sea-surface temperature, upper tropospheric temperature and initial vortex structure. The numerical model confirms the assumed Gaussian distribution with width λ of the moist entropy in the boundary layer. A linear relationship between model cyclone size and inline image is found, in agreement with the λ model. The λ model predicts a weak relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity, as is observed. In addition, the λ model suggests that change in tropical cyclone size should be closely related to angular momentum transport near the boundary layer, as has been found in observations. The good agreement of the λ model with the numerical model shows that the λ model could be a reasonable alternative for characterizing the wind structure of tropical cyclones with only one scaling parameter.
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Journal articleLefauve A, Muller C, Melet A, 2015,
A three-dimensional map of tidal dissipation over abyssal hills
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, Vol: 120, Pages: 4760-4777, ISSN: 2169-9275- Cite
- Citations: 26
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Journal articleBossay S, Bekki S, Marchand M, et al., 2015,
Sensitivity of tropical stratospheric ozone to rotational UV variations estimated from UARS and Aura MLS observations during the declining phases of solar cycles 22 and 23
, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol: 130-131, Pages: 96-111, ISSN: 1364-6826The correlation between tropical stratospheric ozone and UV radiation on solar rotational time scales is investigated using daily satellite ozone observations and reconstructed solar spectra. We consider two 3-year periods falling within the descending phases of two 11-year solar cycles 22 (1991-1994) and 23 (2004-2007). The UV rotational cycle is highly irregular and even disappears for half a year during cycle 23. For the 1991-1994 period, ozone and 205 nm UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ~5 hPa; ozone sensitivity (percentage change in ozone for 1 percent change in UV) peaks at ~0.4. Correlation during cycle 23 is weaker with a peak ozone sensitivity of 0.2. The correlation is found to vary widely, not only with altitude, but also from one year to the next with a rotational signal in ozone appearing almost intermittent. Unexpectedly, the correlation is not found to bear any relation with the solar rotational forcing. For instance, solar rotational fluctuations are by far the strongest during 1991-1992 whereas the correlation peaks at the end of 1993, a rotationally quiescent period. When calculated over sliding intervals of 1-year, the sensitivity is found to vary very strongly within both 3-year periods; it is almost negligible over the entire vertical profile during some 1-year intervals or reaches close to 1 around 2-5 mb for other intervals. Other sources of variability, presumably of dynamical origin, operate on the rotational spectral range and determine to a large extent the estimated solar rotational signal. Even considering 3 years of observations (corresponding to about 40 solar cycles), the extraction of the rotational solar signal does not appear to be robust during declining phases of 11-year solar cycles. As observational studies cover at best three 11-year solar cycles, it must be challenging to produce a reliable estimation of the 11-year solar cycle signal in stratospheric ozone, especially in
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Conference paperOluleye OO, Jobson M, Smith R, 2015,
Optimisation-based design of site waste heat recovery systems
, ECOS 2015 - 28th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems -
Journal articleNewinger C, Toumi R, 2015,
Potential impact of the colored Amazon and Orinoco plume on tropical cyclone intensity
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol: 120, Pages: 1296-1317, ISSN: 2169-9275 -
Journal articleHardwick SR, Toumi R, Pfeifer M, et al., 2015,
The relationship between leaf area index and microclimate in tropical forest and oil palm plantation: Forest disturbance drives changes in microclimate
, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol: 201, Pages: 187-195, ISSN: 0168-1923Land use change is a major threat to biodiversity. One mechanism by which land use change influences biodiversity and ecological processes is through changes in the local climate. Here, the relationships between leaf area index and five climate variables – air temperature, relative humidity, vapour pressure deficit, specific humidity and soil temperature – are investigated across a range of land use types in Borneo, including primary tropical forest, logged forest and oil palm plantation. Strong correlations with the leaf area index are found for the mean daily maximum air and soil temperatures, the mean daily maximum vapour pressure deficit and the mean daily minimum relative humidity. Air beneath canopies with high leaf area index is cooler and has higher relative humidity during the day. Forest microclimate is also found to be less variable for sites with higher leaf area indices. Primary forest is found to be up to 2.5 °C cooler than logged forest and up to 6.5 °C cooler than oil palm plantations. Our results indicate that leaf area index is a useful parameter for predicting the effects of vegetation upon microclimate, which could be used to make small scale climate predictions based on remotely sensed data.
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Journal articleSparks N, Toumi R, 2015,
Numerical Simulations of Daytime Temperature and Humidity Crossover Effects in London
, BOUNDARY-LAYER METEOROLOGY, Vol: 154, Pages: 101-117, ISSN: 0006-8314- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 6
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Journal articleNicholls JF, Toumi R, Stenchikov G, 2014,
Effects of unsteady mountain-gap winds on eddies in the Red Sea
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 16, Pages: 279-284, ISSN: 1530-261X -
Conference paperOluleye OO, Jobson M, Smith R, 2014,
Improving a process site sustainability through waste heat recovery
, Environmental Division 2014 - Core Programming Area at the 2014 AIChE Annual Meeting 2014, Pages 335-357 -
Conference paperOluleye OO, Jobson M, Smith R, 2014,
Optimal design and integration of a process site waste heat recovery system
, 2014 AIChE Annual Meeting -
Journal articlePhibbs S, Toumi R, 2014,
Modeled dependence of wind and waves on ocean temperature in tropical cyclones
, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 41, Pages: 7383-7390, ISSN: 0094-8276- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 9
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Conference paperHannon M, Skea J, Rhodes A, 2014,
Innovation in the energy sector: advancing or frustrating climate policy goals?
, 10th British Institute of Energy Economics Academic ConferenceThe energy sector is well known for the relatively modest level of resource that it devotes to research and development (R&D). However, the incremental pace of energy innovation has speeded up in the last decade as measured by public sector R&D budgets, deployment of alternative technologies and novel institutional arrangements. While much of this effort has been targeted at technologies that promise to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, there have also been major innovations that extend the fossil fuel resource base and reduce the cost of extraction. The last decade’s developments can be seen in terms of a challenge to the existing energy paradigm in parallel with a renewed innovative response focusing on conventional fuels and technologies. This paper examines this tension, by exploring the expectations of a variety of organisations in both the public and private sector regarding energy sector developments and by analysing private sector expenditure on energy research and development (R&D) and public sector budgets for energy R&D and demonstration (RD&D). Scenarios and outlook exercises that have been published since 2013 reveal a wide range of beliefs about the future development of the energy system. The contrasting views underpinning the different scenarios are reflected in divergent patterns of R&D investment between the private and public sectors. There appears to be a tension between the drive to transform energy systems, on the part of public bodies, mainly motivated by the need to combat global climate change, and private sector activity, which tends to reinforce and extend existing patterns of energy provision. The paper addresses, but not answer definitively, the key question as to whether technological change is enabling or frustrating ambitious carbon goals.
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Journal articleRhodes A, Skea J, Hannon M, 2014,
The global surge in energy innovation
, Energies, Vol: 7, Pages: 5601-5623, ISSN: 1996-1073Policymakers are seeking a transformation of the energy system driven by concerns about climate change, energy security and affordability. At the same time, emerging developments in underpinning science and engineering are opening up new possibilities across the whole technology spectrum covering renewables and other supply side technologies, energy demand and energy infrastructure. This paper reviews both the “policy pull” for energy innovation activities and the “science and technology push”. It explores the expectations of a variety of organisations in both the public and private sector regarding these pressures and possibilities by assessing various scenarios and outlook exercises that have been published since 2013. It reveals a wide range of beliefs about the future development of the energy system. The paper then moves on to analyse private sector expenditure on energy research and development (R&D) and public sector budgets for energy R&D and demonstration (RD&D). This analysis demonstrates significant divergences in patterns of innovation between the private and public sectors and leads to the hypothesis that the private sector is, broadly, taking measures to reinforce the existing energy paradigm while the public sector is focusing on new energy technologies that support wider policy objectives. This pattern is consistent with past technological transitions, with innovation efforts that would transform the energy system being counteracted by countervailing efforts that reinforce the existing fossil fuel-based paradigm.
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Journal articleRadu R, Toumi R, Phau J, 2014,
Influence of atmospheric and sea surface temperature on the size of hurricane <i>Catarina</i>
, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 140, Pages: 1778-1784, ISSN: 0035-9009- Cite
- Citations: 18
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