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  • Journal article
    Ball WT, Mortlock DJ, Egerton JS, Haigh JDet al., 2014,

    Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

    , JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2115-7251
  • Report
    Speirs J, Gross R, Candelise C, Contestabile M, Gross Bet al., 2014,

    Materials Availability for Low Carbon Technologies

    , Publisher: UKERC
  • Journal article
    McCoy D, Hoskins B, 2014,

    The science of anthropogenic climate change: what every doctor should know

    , BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 349, ISSN: 0959-535X
  • Journal article
    Baumgartner J, Zhang Y, Schauer JJ, Huang W, Wang Y, Ezzati Met al., 2014,

    Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China

    , PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 111, Pages: 13229-13234, ISSN: 0027-8424
  • Journal article
    Rhazaoui K, Cai Q, Adjiman CS, Brandon NPet al., 2014,

    Towards the 3D modeling of the effective conductivity of solid oxide fuel cell electrodes - II. Computational parameters

    , CHEMICAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE, Vol: 116, Pages: 781-792, ISSN: 0009-2509
  • Journal article
    Parkinson SD, Hill J, Piggott MD, Allison PAet al., 2014,

    Direct numerical simulations of particle-laden density currents with adaptive, discontinuous finite elements

    , GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 7, Pages: 1945-1960, ISSN: 1991-959X
  • Journal article
    Fuks KB, Weinmayr G, Foraster M, Dratva J, Hampel R, Houthuijs D, Oftedal B, Oudin A, Panasevich S, Penell J, Sommar JN, Sorensen M, Tiittanen P, Wolf K, Xun WW, Aguilera I, Basagana X, Beelen R, Bots ML, Brunekreef B, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Caracciolo B, Cirach M, de Faire U, de Nazelle A, Eeftens M, Elosua R, Erbel R, Forsberg B, Fratiglioni L, Gaspoz J-M, Hilding A, Jula A, Korek M, Kraemer U, Kuenzli N, Lanki T, Leander K, Magnusson PKE, Marrugat J, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Oestenson C-G, Pedersen NL, Pershagen G, Phuleria HC, Probst-Hensch NM, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Schaffner E, Schikowski T, Schindler C, Schwarze PE, Sogaard AJ, Sugiri D, Swart WJR, Tsai M-Y, Turunen AW, Vineis P, Peters A, Hoffmann Bet al., 2014,

    Arterial blood pressure and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution: an analysis in the European study of cohorts for air pollution effects (ESCAPE)

    , Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 122, Pages: 896-905, ISSN: 0091-6765

    Background: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country specific.Objectives: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations.Methods: We analyzed 15 population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). We modeled residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides with land use regression using a uniform protocol. We assessed traffic exposure with traffic indicator variables. We analyzed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and nonmedicated with BP-lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic BP, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis.Results: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in nonmedicated participants [0.35 mmHg (95% CI: 0.02, 0.68) and 0.22 mmHg (95% CI: 0.04, 0.40) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively]. The estimated odds ratio (OR) for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.11) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modeled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated.Conclusions: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts, we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in nonmedicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modeled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.
  • Journal article
    Mirchi A, Watkins DW, Huckins CJ, Madani K, Hjorth Pet al., 2014,

    Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

    , Water Resources Research, Vol: 50, Pages: 7515-7526, ISSN: 1944-7973

    Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores theurgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems.Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecologicalsystems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomicsystem, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype.Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integritythrough alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent withthe G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraintsrather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecologicalconsiderations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacksand potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting ashift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of thedynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associatedlong-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamicsand estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy leversfor implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away fromgrowth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutionalreform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.
  • Journal article
    Rhodes A, Skea J, Hannon M, 2014,

    The global surge in energy innovation

    , Energies, Vol: 7, Pages: 5601-5623, ISSN: 1996-1073

    Policymakers are seeking a transformation of the energy system driven by concerns about climate change, energy security and affordability. At the same time, emerging developments in underpinning science and engineering are opening up new possibilities across the whole technology spectrum covering renewables and other supply side technologies, energy demand and energy infrastructure. This paper reviews both the “policy pull” for energy innovation activities and the “science and technology push”. It explores the expectations of a variety of organisations in both the public and private sector regarding these pressures and possibilities by assessing various scenarios and outlook exercises that have been published since 2013. It reveals a wide range of beliefs about the future development of the energy system. The paper then moves on to analyse private sector expenditure on energy research and development (R&D) and public sector budgets for energy R&D and demonstration (RD&D). This analysis demonstrates significant divergences in patterns of innovation between the private and public sectors and leads to the hypothesis that the private sector is, broadly, taking measures to reinforce the existing energy paradigm while the public sector is focusing on new energy technologies that support wider policy objectives. This pattern is consistent with past technological transitions, with innovation efforts that would transform the energy system being counteracted by countervailing efforts that reinforce the existing fossil fuel-based paradigm.
  • Journal article
    Mace GM, Reyers B, Alkemade R, Biggs R, Chapin FS, Cornell SE, Diaz S, Jennings S, Leadley P, Mumby PJ, Purvis A, Scholes RJ, Seddon AWR, Solan M, Steffen W, Woodward Get al., 2014,

    Approaches to defining a planetary boundary for biodiversity

    , Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, Vol: 28, Pages: 289-297, ISSN: 0959-3780

    The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.
  • Journal article
    Martin R, Muûls M, de Preux LB, Wagner UJet al., 2014,

    On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

    , Ecological Economics, Vol: 105, Pages: 78-88, ISSN: 0921-8009

    The EU Emissions Trading Scheme continues to exempt industries deemed at risk of carbon leakage from permit auctions. Carbon leakage risk is established based on the carbon intensity and trade exposure of each 4-digit industry. Using a novel measure of carbon leakage risk obtained in interviews with almost 400 managers at regulated firms in six countries, we show that carbon intensity is strongly correlated with leakage risk whereas overall trade exposure is not. In spite of this, most exemptions from auctioning are granted to industries with high trade exposure to developed and less developed countries. Our analysis suggests two ways of tightening the exemption criteria without increasing relocation risk among non-exempt industries. The first one is to exempt trade exposed industries only if they are also carbon intensive. The second one is to consider exposure to trade only with less developed countries. By modifying the carbon leakage criteria along these lines, European governments could raise additional revenue from permit auctions of up to €3 billion per year, based on a permit price of €30.
  • Journal article
    Leach AW, Levontin P, Holt J, Kell LT, Mumford JDet al., 2014,

    Identification and prioritization of uncertainties for management of Eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)

    , Marine Policy, Vol: 48, Pages: 84-92, ISSN: 0308-597X

    In recent decades there has been steady progress towards a risk-based management approach for fisheries. An important first step in a risk analysis framework is scoping to identify, describe and catalog the sources of uncertainty that might have an impact on a fishery. This paper introduces a methodology based on a range of tools to formalize the process of elicitation of uncertainties, from both experts and stakeholders, for the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). ICCAT is a regional fisheries management organization responsible for the conservation of tunas and other highly migratory fish in the Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas. The aim of the elicitation was to identify and prioritize uncertainties for inclusion in Operating Models for Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). The tool presented in this paper supports the qualitative prioritization of uncertainties, while also visualizing the degree of consensus among stakeholders on particular issues. Perceptions of uncertainty in fisheries often vary widely among scientists, industry and other interest groups, so tools that can facilitate inclusion and representation of different opinions are useful where decision-making depends on broad agreement and more generally, where effective management depends on commitment from stakeholders.
  • Journal article
    Gohari A, Bozorgi A, Madani K, Elledge J, Berndtsson Ret al., 2014,

    Adaptation of surface water supply to climate change in central Iran

    , JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 5, Pages: 391-407, ISSN: 2040-2244
  • Journal article
    Newton B, Cowie S, Rijks D, Banks J, Brindley H, Marsham JHet al., 2014,

    SOLAR COOKING IN THE SAHEL

    , BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 95, Pages: 1325-1328, ISSN: 0003-0007
  • Journal article
    Stafoggia M, Cesaroni G, Peters A, Andersen ZJ, Badaloni C, Beelen R, Caracciolo B, Cyrys J, de Faire U, de Hoogh K, Eriksen KT, Fratiglioni L, Galassi C, Gigante B, Havulinna AS, Hennig F, Hilding A, Hoek G, Hoffmann B, Houthuijs D, Korek M, Lanki T, Leander K, Magnusson PK, Meisinger C, Migliore E, Overvad K, Ostenson C-G, Pedersen NL, Pekkanen J, Penell J, Pershagen G, Pundt N, Pyko A, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Ranzi A, Ricceri F, Sacerdote C, Swart WJR, Turunen AW, Vineis P, Weimar C, Weinmayr G, Wolf K, Brunekreef B, Forastiere Fet al., 2014,

    Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Incidence of Cerebrovascular Events: Results from 11 European Cohorts within the ESCAPE Project

    , ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES, Vol: 122, Pages: 919-925, ISSN: 0091-6765
  • Journal article
    Bond T, Templeton MR, Rifai O, Ali H, Graham NJDet al., 2014,

    Chlorinated and nitrogenous disinfection by-product formation from ozonation and post-chlorination of natural organic matter surrogates

    , Chemosphere, Vol: 111, Pages: 218-224, ISSN: 0045-6535
  • Journal article
    Massa E, Giannini V, Hylton NP, Ekins-Daukes NJ, Jain S, El Daif O, Maier SAet al., 2014,

    Diffractive Interference Design Using Front and Rear Surface Metal and Dielectric Nanoparticle Arrays for Photocurrent Enhancement in Thin Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells

    , ACS PHOTONICS, Vol: 1, Pages: 871-877, ISSN: 2330-4022
  • Journal article
    Ahmed SE, Ewers RM, Smith MJ, 2014,

    Large scale spatio-temporal patterns of road development in the Amazon rainforest

    , ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION, Vol: 41, Pages: 253-264, ISSN: 0376-8929
  • Journal article
    Ramesh NI, Onof C, 2014,

    A class of hidden Markov models for regional average rainfall

    , HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, Vol: 59, Pages: 1704-1717, ISSN: 0262-6667
  • Journal article
    Akgul O, Mac Dowell N, Papageorgiou LG, Shah Net al., 2014,

    A mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) supply chain optimisation framework for carbon negative electricity generation using biomass to energy with CCS (BECCS) in the UK

    , INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL, Vol: 28, Pages: 189-202, ISSN: 1750-5836
  • Journal article
    Chan NLA, Thomas T, Fuehrer M, Ekins-Daukes NJet al., 2014,

    Practical Limits of Multijunction Solar Cell Performance Enhancement From Radiative Coupling Considering Realistic Spectral Conditions

    , IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, Vol: 4, Pages: 1306-1313, ISSN: 2156-3381
  • Journal article
    Vandeginste V, John CM, Cosgrove JW, Manning Cet al., 2014,

    Dimensions, texture-distribution, and geochemical heterogeneities of fracture- related dolomite geobodies hosted in Ediacaran limestones, northern Oman

    , AAPG BULLETIN, Vol: 98, Pages: 1789-1809, ISSN: 0149-1423
  • Journal article
    Alonso-Alvarez D, Thomas T, Fuehrer M, Hylton NP, Ekins-Daukes NJ, Lackner D, Philipps SP, Bett AW, Sodabanlu H, Fujii H, Watanabe K, Sugiyama M, Nasi L, Campanini Met al., 2014,

    InGaAs/GaAsP strain balanced multi-quantum wires grown on misoriented GaAs substrates for high efficiency solar cells

    , Applied Physics Letters, Vol: 105, ISSN: 1077-3118

    Quantum wires (QWRs) form naturally when growing strain balanced InGaAs/GaAsP multi-quantum wells (MQW) on GaAs [100] 6° misoriented substrates under the usual growth conditions. The presence of wires instead of wells could have several unexpected consequences for the performance of the MQW solar cells, both positive and negative, that need to be assessed to achieve high conversion efficiencies. In this letter, we study QWR properties from the point of view of their performance as solar cells by means of transmission electron microscopy, time resolved photoluminescence and external quantum efficiency (EQE) using polarised light. We find that these QWRs have longer lifetimes than nominally identical QWs grown on exact [100] GaAs substrates, of up to 1 μs, at any level of illumination. We attribute this effect to an asymmetric carrier escape from the nanostructures leading to a strong 1D-photo-charging, keeping electrons confined along the wire and holes in the barriers. In principle, these extended lifetimes could be exploited to enhance carrier collection and reduce dark current losses. Light absorption by these QWRs is 1.6 times weaker than QWs, as revealed by EQE measurements, which emphasises the need for more layers of nanostructures or the use light trapping techniques. Contrary to what we expected, QWR show very low absorption anisotropy, only 3.5%, which was the main drawback a priori of this nanostructure. We attribute this to a reduced lateral confinement inside the wires. These results encourage further study and optimization of QWRs for high efficiency solar cells.
  • Journal article
    Arku RE, Dionisio KL, Hughes AF, Vallarino J, Spengler JD, Castro MC, Agyei-Mensah S, Ezzati Met al., 2015,

    Personal particulate matter exposures and locations of students in four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana

    , JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 25, Pages: 557-566, ISSN: 1559-0631
  • Journal article
    Jacobs CT, Piggott MD, 2014,

    Firedrake-Fluids v0.1: numerical modelling of shallow water flows using a performance-portable automated solution framework

    , Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol: 7, Pages: 5699-5738, ISSN: 1991-9611
  • Journal article
    Vaissier V, Mosconi E, Moia D, Pastore M, Frost JM, De Angelis F, Barnes PRF, Nelson Jet al., 2014,

    Effect of Molecular Fluctuations on Hole Diffusion within Dye Monolayers

    , CHEMISTRY OF MATERIALS, Vol: 26, Pages: 4731-4740, ISSN: 0897-4756
  • Journal article
    Li K-Y, Huang X, Fleischmann C, Rein G, Ji Jet al., 2014,

    Pyrolysis of Medium-Density Fiberboard: Optimized Search for Kinetics Scheme and Parameters via a Genetic Algorithm Driven by Kissinger's Method

    , Energy & Fuels, Vol: 28, Pages: 6130-6139, ISSN: 1520-5029

    The pyrolysis kinetics of charring materials plays an important role in understanding material combustionsespecially for construction materials with complex degradation chemistry. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is frequently usedto study the heterogeneous kinetics of solid fuels; however, there is no agreed method to determine the pyrolysis scheme andkinetic parameters for charring polymers with multiple components and competing reaction pathways. This study develops a newtechnique to estimate the possible numbers of species and sub-reactions in pyrolysis by analyzing the second derivatives ofthermogravimetry (DDTG) curves. The pyrolysis of a medium-density fiberboard (MDF) in nitrogen is studied in detail, and theDDTG curves are used to locate the temperature of the peak mass-loss rate for each sub-reaction. Then, on the basis of the TGdata under multiple heating rates, Kissinger’s method is used to quickly find the possible range of values of the kinetic parameters(A and E). These ranges are used to accelerate the optimization of the inverse problem using a genetic algorithm (GA) for thekinetic and stoichiometric parameters. The proposed method and kinetic scheme found are shown to match the experimentaldata and are able to predict accurately results at different heating rates better than Kissinger’s method. Moreover, the searchmethod (K−K method) is highly efficient, faster than the regular GA search alone. Modeling results show that, as the TG dataavailable increase, the interdependence among kinetic parameters becomes weak and the accuracy of the first-order modeldeclines. Furthermore, conducting TG experiment under multiple heating rates is found to be crucial in obtaining good kineticparameters.
  • Journal article
    Dattani R, Michels R, Nedoma AJ, Schweins R, Westacott P, Huber K, Cabral JTet al., 2014,

    Conformation and Interactions of Polystyrene and Fullerenes in Dilute to Semidilute Solutions

    , Macromolecules, Vol: 47, Pages: 6113-6120, ISSN: 0024-9297

    We report the polymer conformation and fullereneaggregation in a ternary system containing polystyrene, C60, andtoluene measured by small angle neutron, static, and dynamic lightscattering. We investigate polymer concentrations across the diluteand semidilute regime for five polymer molecular weights (Mw =20 kg/mol to 1 Mg/mol), and fullerene concentrations below andabove its miscibility threshold in toluene. We find that the polymerradius of gyration (Rgpoly), hydrodynamic radius (Rh), and themixture correlation length (ξ) remain unchanged upon addition ofC60. The miscibility of C60 in toluene, however, decreases upon addition of polystyrene forming aggregates with a timedependentradius on the order of 100 nm, and this effect is amplified with increasing polymer Mw. Our findings are relevant tothe solution processing of organic photovoltaics, which generally require the effective solubilization of fullerene derivatives andpolymer pairs in this concentration range.
  • Journal article
    Cheung JCH, Haigh JD, Jackson DR, 2014,

    Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble weather forecasts

    , JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 119, Pages: 9253-9266, ISSN: 2169-897X
  • Journal article
    Madani K, Zarezadeh M, Morid S, 2014,

    A new framework for resolving conflicts over transboundary rivers using bankruptcy methods

    , HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 18, Pages: 3055-3068, ISSN: 1027-5606

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