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ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Rahimi M, et al., 2023,
Human-induced climate change compounded by socio-economic water stressors increased severity of drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran
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Journal articleChagot L, Hernandez Gelado S, Quilodran-Casas C, 2023,
Enhancing microdroplets image analysis with deep learning
, Micromachines, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2072-666XMicrofluidics is a highly interdisciplinary field where the integration of deep-learning models has the potential to streamline processes and increase precision and reliability. This study investigates the use of deep-learning methods for the accurate detection and measurement of droplet diameters and the image restoration of low-resolution images. This study demonstrates that the Segment Anything Model (SAM) provides superior detection and reduced droplet diameter error measurement compared to the Circular Hough Transform, which is widely implemented and used in microfluidic imaging. SAM droplet detections prove to be more robust to image quality and microfluidic images with low contrast between the fluid phases. In addition, this work proves that a deep-learning super-resolution network MSRN-BAM can be trained on a dataset comprising of droplets in a flow-focusing microchannel to super-resolve images for scales ×2, ×4, ×6, ×8. Super-resolved images obtain comparable detection and segmentation results to those obtained using high-resolution images. Finally, the potential of deep learning in other computer vision tasks, such as denoising for microfluidic imaging, is shown. The results show that a DnCNN model can denoise effectively microfluidic images with additive Gaussian noise up to
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ReportKew S, Pinto I, Alves L, et al., 2023,
Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America
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ReportJennings N, Paterson P, 2023,
How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action?
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ReportZachariah M, Kotroni V, Kostas L, et al., 2023,
Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region
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Journal articleToumi R, 2023,
John Edward Harries
, Physics Today, Vol: 76, Pages: 53-53, ISSN: 0031-9228 -
Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Minelli C, Lam HCY, et al., 2023,
Asthma hospitalisations and heat exposure in England: a case-crossover study during 2002-2019
, Thorax, Vol: 78, Pages: 875-881, ISSN: 0040-6376BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between warm temperature and asthma hospitalisation. They have reported different sex-related and age-related vulnerabilities; nevertheless, little is known about how this effect has changed over time and how it varies in space. This study aims to evaluate the association between asthma hospitalisation and warm temperature and investigate vulnerabilities by age, sex, time and space. METHODS: We retrieved individual-level data on summer asthma hospitalisation at high temporal (daily) and spatial (postcodes) resolutions during 2002-2019 in England from the NHS Digital. Daily mean temperature at 1 km×1 km resolution was retrieved from the UK Met Office. We focused on lag 0-3 days. We employed a case-crossover study design and fitted Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models accounting for possible confounders (rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and national holidays). RESULTS: After accounting for confounding, we found an increase of 1.11% (95% credible interval: 0.88% to 1.34%) in the asthma hospitalisation risk for every 1°C increase in the ambient summer temperature. The effect was highest for males aged 16-64 (2.10%, 1.59% to 2.61%) and during the early years of our analysis. We also found evidence of a decreasing linear trend of the effect over time. Populations in Yorkshire and the Humber and East and West Midlands were the most vulnerable. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of an association between warm temperature and hospital admission for asthma. The effect has decreased over time with potential explanations including temporal differences in patterns of heat exposure, adaptive mechanisms, asthma management, lifestyle, comorbidities and occupation.
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Journal articleZhou L, Liu F, Tan Y, et al., 2023,
Aluminum-induced changes in the net carbon fixation and carbon decomposition of a nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium erythraeum
, Biogeochemistry, Vol: 165, Pages: 277-290, ISSN: 0168-2563 -
Journal articleTakaya Y, Caron L-P, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 182-199, ISSN: 2225-6032Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
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Journal articleCroasdale K, Grailey K, Jennings N, et al., 2023,
Planning for the perfect storm: perceptions of UK mental health professionals on the increasing impacts of climate change on their service users
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782IntroductionClimate change poses a considerable risk of further increasing the world's mental health burden. The ways that, and extent to which, climate change is affecting mental health service users is poorly known. Mental health professionals (MHP)s' views on the nature of climate-related distress and the need for specialist training to support service users is undetermined globally.MethodsA questionnaire survey was disseminated to an opportunity sample of MHPs based in the United Kingdom (UK). It investigated whether MHPs perceived that the number of service users mentioning climate change as affecting their mental health or emotional distress had increased in the five years prior to 2021, and if they believe it will increase further. The survey explored MHPs’ perceptions of the influence of climate change on service users’ mental health needs, if they perceive this to be rational, and if they feel adequately prepared to manage climate change related mental health problems or emotional distress.ResultsWe surveyed 75 MHPs, including professionals in psychotherapy (38), psychology (19), psychiatry (6). MHPs reported a significant increase in the perceived prevalence of mental health problems or emotional distress related to climate change, believing this increase will continue. MHPs reported a range of impacts on service users due to climate change, typically viewed as a rational response. MHPs felt equipped to manage the consequences of climate change but would benefit from specific training.ConclusionsOur results indicate an increasing incidence of climate-related emotional distress among service users as perceived by MHPs. The expectation among professionals is that this service need is here now but will continue to increase in the future, with potential implications for the provision of training.
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Journal articleLi Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al., 2023,
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
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ReportBarnes C, Boulanger Y, Keeping T, et al., 2023,
Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.
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Journal articleFeng X, Toumi R, Roberts M, et al., 2023,
An approach to link climate model tropical cyclogenesis bias to large-scale wind circulation modes
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, ISSN: 0094-8276Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large-scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large-scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased toward the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north-eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics-subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.
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Journal articleZhu L, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2023,
Stratified inclined duct: Direct numerical simulations
, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 969, ISSN: 0022-1120The stratified inclined duct (SID) experiment consists of a zero-net-volume exchange flow in a long tilted rectangular duct, which allows the study of realistic stratified shear flows with sustained internal forcing. We present the first three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of SID to explore the transitions between increasingly turbulent flow regimes first described by Meyer & Linden (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 753, 2014, pp. 242-253). We develop a numerical set-up that faithfully reproduces the experiments and sustains the flow for arbitrarily long times at minimal computational cost. We recover the four qualitative flow regimes found experimentally in the same regions of parameter space: laminar flow, waves, intermittent turbulence and fully developed turbulence. We find good qualitative and quantitative agreement between DNS and experiments and highlight the added value of DNS to complement experimental diagnostics and increase our understanding of the transition to turbulence, both temporally (laminar/turbulent cycles) and parametrically (as the tilt angle of the duct and the Reynolds number are increased). These results demonstrate that numerical studies of SID - and deeper integration between simulations and experiments - have the potential to lead to a better understanding of stratified turbulence.
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Journal articleParks RM, Kontis V, Anderson GB, et al., 2023,
Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States
, Science Advances, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2375-2548Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988–2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post–hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post–gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post–hurricane force and 70.0% of post–gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004–2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.
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Journal articleAndrijevic M, Schleussner C-F, Crespo Cuaresma J, et al., 2023,
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 778-787, ISSN: 1758-678X -
ReportZachariah M, Philip S, Pinto I, et al., 2023,
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
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Journal articleAlford J, Massazza A, Jennings NR, et al., 2023,
Developing global recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across sectors: a Delphi-style study
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782Climate change is causing far-reaching yet underappreciated worsening of outcomes across the mental health and wellbeing spectrum. Despite increasing attention to the mental health impacts of climate change, an absence of a clear, cross-sectoral agenda for action has held back progress against the dual and interconnected challenges of supporting human and planetary health. This study aims to serve as an essential first step to address this gap. Harnessing the expertise of a diverse panel of 61 participants, representing 24 nationalities, this study developed and prioritized recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across the relevant sectors of research, policy, healthcare and the third sector, and used a Delphi-style methodology to examine their feasibility and importance. Broadly, the prioritized recommendations highlighted the need to expand the evidence base, work collaboratively across sectors, and raise awareness. While broadly there was consensus on recommendation importance, there was greater variation in the reported feasibility of the recommendations, which differed across settings. Other common themes included the need for cultural and resource contextualization, raising awareness of and addressing mental health co-benefits via climate action, and working with communities with lived experience to develop and implement the findings. As there may be some interdependencies between the recommendations, further work needs to identify how best to implement them. The recommendations serve as a robust and evidence-based framework that can be used as a foundation to devise locally appropriate, concrete implementation strategies matching levels of need and resource. These also serve as a clear call to action for investment from leaders across sectors to ensure they are realized.
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Journal articleItzkowitz N, Gong X, Atilola G, et al., 2023,
Aircraft noise and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality near Heathrow Airport: a case-crossover study
, Environment International, Vol: 177, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0160-4120Aircraft noise causes annoyance and sleep disturbance and there is some evidence of associations between long-term exposures and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated short-term associations between previous day aircraft noise and cardiovascular events in a population of 6.3 million residing near Heathrow Airport using a case-crossover design and exposure data for different times of day and night. We included all recorded hospitalisations (n=442,442) and deaths (n=49,443) in 2014-2018 due to CVD. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs and adjusted for NO2 concentration, temperature, and holidays. We estimated an increase in risk for 10dB increment in noise during the previous evening (Leve OR = 1.007, 95% CI 0.999-1.015), particularly from 22:00-23:00h (OR= 1.007, 95% CI 1.000-1.013), and the early morning hours 04:30-06:00h (OR= 1.012, 95% CI 1.002-1.021) for all CVD admissions, but no significant associations with day-time noise. There was effect modification by age-sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and season, and some suggestion that high noise variability at night was associated with higher risks. Our findings are consistent with proposed mechanisms for short-term impacts of aircraft noise at night on CVD from experimental studies, including sleep disturbance, increases in blood pressure and stress hormone levels and impaired endothelial function.
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ReportKimutai J, Faka DN, Ayabagabo P, et al., 2023,
Limited data prevent assessment of role of climate change in deadly floods affecting highly vulnerable communities around Lake Kivu
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ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure
, ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe dearth of available data on e-motorcycle usage in Africancities is a significant challenge in impact studies of e-motorcycledeployment. The ChargeUp! project aimed to fill this research gapusing operational data from e-motorcycles and battery swap stationsin Nairobi to perform modelling and analysis to determine severalkey outputs. This project included the analysis of: e-motorcycle trips;battery swapping demand; battery charging energy consumption;swap battery charging related emissions for a high renewables andhigh fossil energy mix scenarios; charging related electricity costsfor different tariff scenarios; the effect of a co-ordinated chargingscenario on emissions and tariffs; optimal battery ratios and requirednumbers of swap stations; and a methodology to determine optimalregions for battery swap stations based on trip data.
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Journal articleCheng S, Quilodran-Casas C, Ouala S, et al., 2023,
Machine Learning With Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification for Dynamical Systems: A Review
, IEEE-CAA JOURNAL OF AUTOMATICA SINICA, Vol: 10, Pages: 1361-1387, ISSN: 2329-9266- Author Web Link
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, et al., 2023,
A workflow for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
, The R Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 89-104, ISSN: 2073-4859COVID-19 related deaths estimates underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares the observed number of deaths versus the number that would be expected if the pandemic did not occur. The expected number of deaths depends on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a workflow using R for estimating and visualising excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed workflow is fast to implement and allows for combining different models and presenting aggregated results based on factors such as age, sex, and spatial location. This makes it a particularly powerful and appealing workflow for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
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ReportBarnes C, Faranda D, Coppola E, et al., 2023,
Limited net role for climate change in heavy spring rainfall in Emilia-Romagna
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ReportKirkpatrick L, Adjiman C, ApSimon H, et al., 2023,
Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution
, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 40Systems approaches are vital for coordinating decision-making in the face of complex issues because they provide the whole picture view needed to avoid negative unintended consequences and to generate genuine benefits. This paper explains how systems thinking can be used to address environmental pollution and support decision-makers in finding solutions.
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ReportZachariah M, Vautard R, Chandrasekaran R, et al., 2023,
Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities
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OtherYesil B, Theokritoff E, Pringle P, et al., 2023,
Overshoot proofing adaptation policies and plans
<jats:p>With 1.2&#176;C current global warming, it becomes increasingly important to think about overshoot and what this would imply for adaptation. In the face of increasing impacts, more and more thresholds and limits to adaptation will be reached &#8211; but if global warming levels are brought down again through the deployment of negative emission technologies, what does this imply for adaptation?Here, we present a methodology which aims to provide concrete entry points for integrating overshoot risks into adaptation planning, with the objective of strengthening resilience, reducing vulnerability and avoiding maladaptation. We explore concepts such as impact (un)avoidability and (ir)reversibility, key elements of long-term adaptation planning. Ultimately, we aim to develop a step-based approach allowing adaptation planners to formulate and review adaptation policies adequately integrating the concept of overshoot and its implications.</jats:p>
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OtherTheokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, et al., 2023,
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
<jats:p>In a time of ever-intensifying climate change, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome adaptation constraints, namely what makes adaptation challenging. Currently, evidence on constraints focusses on the local level and present-day dynamics. Here, we combine qualitative and case study data with national macro indicators and use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to look at the pace of various scenarios of future socio-economic development. We find that regardless of the scenario, long timescales will be required to overcome constraints, challenging adaptation for decades to come, in particular in countries on the frontline of climate change. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our novel approach allows to ground truth existing indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts (including economic models), improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.</jats:p>
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ReportPhilip S, Kew S, Vautard R, et al., 2023,
Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco & Algeria almost impossible without climate change
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Journal articleStreet OD, 2023,
A structure preserving stochastic perturbation of classical water wave theory
, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol: 447, ISSN: 0167-2789The inclusion of stochastic terms in equations of motion for fluid problems enables a statistical representation of processes which are left unresolved by numerical computation. Here, we derive stochastic equations for the behaviour of surface gravity waves using an approach which is designed to preserve the geometric structure of the equations of fluid motion beneath the surface. In doing so, we find a stochastic equation for the evolution of a velocity potential and, more significantly, demonstrate that the stochastic equations for water wave dynamics have a Hamiltonian structure which mirrors that found by Zakharov for the deterministic theory. This involves a perturbation of the velocity field which, unlike the deterministic velocity, need not be irrotational for the problem to close.
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