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Journal articleChagot L, Hernandez Gelado S, Quilodran-Casas C, 2023,
Enhancing microdroplets image analysis with deep learning
, Micromachines, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2072-666XMicrofluidics is a highly interdisciplinary field where the integration of deep-learning models has the potential to streamline processes and increase precision and reliability. This study investigates the use of deep-learning methods for the accurate detection and measurement of droplet diameters and the image restoration of low-resolution images. This study demonstrates that the Segment Anything Model (SAM) provides superior detection and reduced droplet diameter error measurement compared to the Circular Hough Transform, which is widely implemented and used in microfluidic imaging. SAM droplet detections prove to be more robust to image quality and microfluidic images with low contrast between the fluid phases. In addition, this work proves that a deep-learning super-resolution network MSRN-BAM can be trained on a dataset comprising of droplets in a flow-focusing microchannel to super-resolve images for scales ×2, ×4, ×6, ×8. Super-resolved images obtain comparable detection and segmentation results to those obtained using high-resolution images. Finally, the potential of deep learning in other computer vision tasks, such as denoising for microfluidic imaging, is shown. The results show that a DnCNN model can denoise effectively microfluidic images with additive Gaussian noise up to
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ReportKew S, Pinto I, Alves L, et al., 2023,
Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportJennings N, Paterson P, 2023,
How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action?
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ReportZachariah M, Kotroni V, Kostas L, et al., 2023,
Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleTong Z, Xin J, Song J, et al., 2023,
A graphics-accelerated deep neural network approach for turbomachinery flows based on large eddy simulation
, Physics of Fluids, Vol: 35, ISSN: 1070-6631In turbomachinery, strongly unsteady rotor-stator interaction triggers complex three-dimensional turbulent flow phenomena such as flow separation and vortex dynamics. Large eddy simulation (LES) is an advanced numerical method that has recently been used to resolve large-scale turbulent motions and model subgrid-scale turbulence in turbomachinery. To largely reduce the computing cost of LES for turbomachinery flow, a graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated deep neural network-based flow field prediction approach is explored, which combines convolutional neural network autoencoder (CNN-AE) with long short-term memory (LSTM). CNN-AE extracts spatial features of turbomachinery flow by mapping high-dimensional flow fields into low-dimensional space, while LSTM is used to predict the temporal evolution of fluid dynamics. Automatic mixed precision (AMP) is employed to achieve rapid neural network training using Nvidia GTX 1080 Ti GPU, which shows a significant speedup compared with that without AMP. We evaluated the proposed CNN-AE-LSTM (CAL) method against gated recurrent units (GRU) and simple recurrent network (SRN) on two types of turbomachinery, i.e., centrifugal and axial flow pumps. The results show that the proposed CAL shows better capability of capturing the vortex structure details of turbomachinery. When predicting the temporal vorticity field, the mean square error of CAL results is 0.105%-0.124% for centrifugal pumps and 0.071%-0.072% for axial flow pumps. Meanwhile, the structural similarity index measure of the CAL results is 92.51%-92.77% for centrifugal pumps and 93.81%-94.61% for axial flow pumps. The proposed CAL is noticeably better than GRU and SRN in terms of both mean square error and structural similarity index measure.
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Journal articleToumi R, 2023,
John Edward Harries
, Physics Today, Vol: 76, Pages: 53-53, ISSN: 0031-9228 -
Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Minelli C, Lam HCY, et al., 2023,
Asthma hospitalisations and heat exposure in England: a case-crossover study during 2002-2019
, Thorax, Vol: 78, Pages: 875-881, ISSN: 0040-6376BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between warm temperature and asthma hospitalisation. They have reported different sex-related and age-related vulnerabilities; nevertheless, little is known about how this effect has changed over time and how it varies in space. This study aims to evaluate the association between asthma hospitalisation and warm temperature and investigate vulnerabilities by age, sex, time and space. METHODS: We retrieved individual-level data on summer asthma hospitalisation at high temporal (daily) and spatial (postcodes) resolutions during 2002-2019 in England from the NHS Digital. Daily mean temperature at 1 km×1 km resolution was retrieved from the UK Met Office. We focused on lag 0-3 days. We employed a case-crossover study design and fitted Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models accounting for possible confounders (rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and national holidays). RESULTS: After accounting for confounding, we found an increase of 1.11% (95% credible interval: 0.88% to 1.34%) in the asthma hospitalisation risk for every 1°C increase in the ambient summer temperature. The effect was highest for males aged 16-64 (2.10%, 1.59% to 2.61%) and during the early years of our analysis. We also found evidence of a decreasing linear trend of the effect over time. Populations in Yorkshire and the Humber and East and West Midlands were the most vulnerable. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of an association between warm temperature and hospital admission for asthma. The effect has decreased over time with potential explanations including temporal differences in patterns of heat exposure, adaptive mechanisms, asthma management, lifestyle, comorbidities and occupation.
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Journal articleTakaya Y, Caron L-P, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 182-199, ISSN: 2225-6032Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
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Journal articleCroasdale K, Grailey K, Jennings N, et al., 2023,
Planning for the perfect storm: perceptions of UK mental health professionals on the increasing impacts of climate change on their service users
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782IntroductionClimate change poses a considerable risk of further increasing the world's mental health burden. The ways that, and extent to which, climate change is affecting mental health service users is poorly known. Mental health professionals (MHP)s' views on the nature of climate-related distress and the need for specialist training to support service users is undetermined globally.MethodsA questionnaire survey was disseminated to an opportunity sample of MHPs based in the United Kingdom (UK). It investigated whether MHPs perceived that the number of service users mentioning climate change as affecting their mental health or emotional distress had increased in the five years prior to 2021, and if they believe it will increase further. The survey explored MHPs’ perceptions of the influence of climate change on service users’ mental health needs, if they perceive this to be rational, and if they feel adequately prepared to manage climate change related mental health problems or emotional distress.ResultsWe surveyed 75 MHPs, including professionals in psychotherapy (38), psychology (19), psychiatry (6). MHPs reported a significant increase in the perceived prevalence of mental health problems or emotional distress related to climate change, believing this increase will continue. MHPs reported a range of impacts on service users due to climate change, typically viewed as a rational response. MHPs felt equipped to manage the consequences of climate change but would benefit from specific training.ConclusionsOur results indicate an increasing incidence of climate-related emotional distress among service users as perceived by MHPs. The expectation among professionals is that this service need is here now but will continue to increase in the future, with potential implications for the provision of training.
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Journal articleLi Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al., 2023,
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
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ReportBarnes C, Boulanger Y, Keeping T, et al., 2023,
Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleFeng X, Toumi R, Roberts M, et al., 2023,
An approach to link climate model tropical cyclogenesis bias to large-scale wind circulation modes
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, ISSN: 0094-8276Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large-scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large-scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased toward the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north-eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics-subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.
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Journal articleZhu L, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2023,
Stratified inclined duct: direct numerical simulations
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 969, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 7
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Journal articleCao XE, Tomski P, 2023,
The sustainability workforce shift: Building a talent pipeline and career network
, Matter, Vol: 6, Pages: 2471-2475, ISSN: 2590-2393Climate urgency and the clean energy transition require immediate sustainable solutions, impacting the current workforce and creating new job demand, especially in areas that require energy infrastructure modernization such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). The U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored Research Experience in Carbon Sequestration (RECS) program, started in 2004, aims to develop a skilled CCUS workforce and foster young leaders for the clean energy transition. This article shares best practices and lessons from RECS, proposes scaling the model, and emphasizes the importance of diversity, inclusion, and equitable sustainability education for building a strong workforce.
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Journal articleAndrijevic M, Schleussner C-F, Crespo Cuaresma J, et al., 2023,
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 778-787, ISSN: 1758-678X -
Journal articleParks RM, Kontis V, Anderson GB, et al., 2023,
Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States
, Science Advances, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2375-2548Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988–2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post–hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post–gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post–hurricane force and 70.0% of post–gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004–2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.
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Journal articleCao XE, 2023,
One person's trash: Another's treasured education.
, Science, Vol: 381 -
ReportZachariah M, Philip S, Pinto I, et al., 2023,
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
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Journal articleHeim AB, Bharani T, Konstantinides N, et al., 2023,
AI in search of human help.
, Science, Vol: 381, Pages: 162-163 -
Journal articleZhou Y, Zhou Z, Sun J, et al., 2023,
Ruddlesden-Popper-type perovskite Sr3Fe2O7−δ for enhanced thermochemical energy storage
, Ecomat, Vol: 5Perovskite has been considered a promising thermochemical energy storage material. Such materials can perform redox reactions reversibly under the control of oxygen partial pressure over a wide range of temperatures. Layered perovskites have been poorly studied as energy storage material, although their oxygen species exhibit good oxidation activity. In this work, Ruddlesden-Popper-type quasi-2D perovskite Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> and 3D perovskite SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf> were prepared for the testing of thermochemical energy storage properties. It was shown that the degree of reduction reaction for Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> was much greater than that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, with change of non-stoichiometry up to 0.79. The combined effect of thermodynamic parameters for samples on heat storage behavior was studied by Van't Hoff method. The reduction entropy of Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> is much higher than that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, which explains the large promotion in the reaction degree of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>. The total reduction enthalpy of Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> is about 2.8 times that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, with both reduction enthalpy and reaction entropy affecting the heat storage capacity. Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> also has an attractive spectral absorption of 96.92% in the range of 300–2500 nm, which makes it advantageous in volumetric solar collector. Overall, Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> offers improved performance in terms of thermochemical energy storage compared to SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>. (
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Journal articleItzkowitz N, Gong X, Atilola G, et al., 2023,
Aircraft noise and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality near Heathrow Airport: a case-crossover study
, Environment International, Vol: 177, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0160-4120Aircraft noise causes annoyance and sleep disturbance and there is some evidence of associations between long-term exposures and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated short-term associations between previous day aircraft noise and cardiovascular events in a population of 6.3 million residing near Heathrow Airport using a case-crossover design and exposure data for different times of day and night. We included all recorded hospitalisations (n=442,442) and deaths (n=49,443) in 2014-2018 due to CVD. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs and adjusted for NO2 concentration, temperature, and holidays. We estimated an increase in risk for 10dB increment in noise during the previous evening (Leve OR = 1.007, 95% CI 0.999-1.015), particularly from 22:00-23:00h (OR= 1.007, 95% CI 1.000-1.013), and the early morning hours 04:30-06:00h (OR= 1.012, 95% CI 1.002-1.021) for all CVD admissions, but no significant associations with day-time noise. There was effect modification by age-sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and season, and some suggestion that high noise variability at night was associated with higher risks. Our findings are consistent with proposed mechanisms for short-term impacts of aircraft noise at night on CVD from experimental studies, including sleep disturbance, increases in blood pressure and stress hormone levels and impaired endothelial function.
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Journal articleAlford J, Massazza A, Jennings NR, et al., 2023,
Developing global recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across sectors: a Delphi-style study
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782Climate change is causing far-reaching yet underappreciated worsening of outcomes across the mental health and wellbeing spectrum. Despite increasing attention to the mental health impacts of climate change, an absence of a clear, cross-sectoral agenda for action has held back progress against the dual and interconnected challenges of supporting human and planetary health. This study aims to serve as an essential first step to address this gap. Harnessing the expertise of a diverse panel of 61 participants, representing 24 nationalities, this study developed and prioritized recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across the relevant sectors of research, policy, healthcare and the third sector, and used a Delphi-style methodology to examine their feasibility and importance. Broadly, the prioritized recommendations highlighted the need to expand the evidence base, work collaboratively across sectors, and raise awareness. While broadly there was consensus on recommendation importance, there was greater variation in the reported feasibility of the recommendations, which differed across settings. Other common themes included the need for cultural and resource contextualization, raising awareness of and addressing mental health co-benefits via climate action, and working with communities with lived experience to develop and implement the findings. As there may be some interdependencies between the recommendations, further work needs to identify how best to implement them. The recommendations serve as a robust and evidence-based framework that can be used as a foundation to devise locally appropriate, concrete implementation strategies matching levels of need and resource. These also serve as a clear call to action for investment from leaders across sectors to ensure they are realized.
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ReportKimutai J, Faka DN, Ayabagabo P, et al., 2023,
Limited data prevent assessment of role of climate change in deadly floods affecting highly vulnerable communities around Lake Kivu
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure
, ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe dearth of available data on e-motorcycle usage in Africancities is a significant challenge in impact studies of e-motorcycledeployment. The ChargeUp! project aimed to fill this research gapusing operational data from e-motorcycles and battery swap stationsin Nairobi to perform modelling and analysis to determine severalkey outputs. This project included the analysis of: e-motorcycle trips;battery swapping demand; battery charging energy consumption;swap battery charging related emissions for a high renewables andhigh fossil energy mix scenarios; charging related electricity costsfor different tariff scenarios; the effect of a co-ordinated chargingscenario on emissions and tariffs; optimal battery ratios and requirednumbers of swap stations; and a methodology to determine optimalregions for battery swap stations based on trip data.
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Journal articleYang YJ, Yang WW, Ma X, et al., 2023,
Performance improvement of a solar volumetric reactor with passive thermal management under different solar radiation conditions
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 48, Pages: 20193-20207, ISSN: 0360-3199To alleviate the effect of solar radiation fluctuation on the solar volumetric reactor, phase change material (PCM) is applied to buffer the temperature vibration and improve the stability of thermochemical reactions. In this work, we analyzed the heat flow and distribution characteristics of the conventional double-walled volumetric reactor filled with PCMs (SVR1). We then proposed a novel solar volumetric reactor design (SVR2) to solve the problems of local high temperature, slow charging-discharging rate, and fluctuating methane conversion in various radiation conditions. The heat and mass transfer model coupled with thermochemical reaction kinetics was established to compare the performance of SVR1 and SVR2 under steady state, heat charging-discharging mode, and actual solar radiation fluctuation, respectively. The results show that compared to SVR1, the maximum temperature of SVR2 decreases by 106.3 K, and the minimum methane conversion rate increases from 77.4% to 93.6% under natural solar radiation fluctuation.
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Journal articleCheng S, Quilodran-Casas C, Ouala S, et al., 2023,
Machine Learning With Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification for Dynamical Systems: A Review
, IEEE-CAA JOURNAL OF AUTOMATICA SINICA, Vol: 10, Pages: 1361-1387, ISSN: 2329-9266- Cite
- Citations: 158
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, et al., 2023,
A workflow for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
, The R Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 89-104, ISSN: 2073-4859COVID-19 related deaths estimates underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares the observed number of deaths versus the number that would be expected if the pandemic did not occur. The expected number of deaths depends on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a workflow using R for estimating and visualising excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed workflow is fast to implement and allows for combining different models and presenting aggregated results based on factors such as age, sex, and spatial location. This makes it a particularly powerful and appealing workflow for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
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ReportBarnes C, Faranda D, Coppola E, et al., 2023,
Limited net role for climate change in heavy spring rainfall in Emilia-Romagna
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ReportKirkpatrick L, Adjiman C, ApSimon H, et al., 2023,
Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution
, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 40Systems approaches are vital for coordinating decision-making in the face of complex issues because they provide the whole picture view needed to avoid negative unintended consequences and to generate genuine benefits. This paper explains how systems thinking can be used to address environmental pollution and support decision-makers in finding solutions.
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ReportZachariah M, Vautard R, Chandrasekaran R, et al., 2023,
Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities
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