[Satellite image of four tropical cyclones across the Pacific Ocean on 1 September 2015 (c) NASA

Imperial Community Magazine

Learn more about this initiative, including its background, methods, results and outcomes in Imperial Community Magazine's coverage: Harnessing the winds of change

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, are one of the deadliest and most damaging natural hazards. 

Nearly a billion people live in places that are impacted by tropical cyclones. Since 2000, tropical cyclones have caused more than US$2.4 trillion in damages globally.

The Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) is an innovative project powered by Dreamlab, an app that uses idle, charging smart phones to create a virtual supercomputer and create a database of millions of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks.

It helps scientists and the public understand the likelihood of a damaging tropical cyclone and the role of climate change in making a tropical cyclone more likely and more intense. 

Professor Toumi sitting in the Data Science Institute with an image of the map on screen behind him Play video
Professor Ralf Toumi introduces the IRIS project

Learn more

The Imperial College Storm Model explained

Attribution science and the Imperial College Storm Model

 

Explore our attribution studies

Tropical Cyclone Chido

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a Tropical Cyclone of the type “Chido" from a Category 3 to Category 4. A “Chido” type is about +40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Calculating economic damages from tropical cyclones

Learn more about how we calculate the share of attributable economic damages from tropical cyclones here.

Hurricane Milton

The intensity of "Milton" type hurricanes at landfall are about 40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a “Milton” type can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Hurricane Helene

The intensity of "Helene" type Category 4 hurricanes at landfall was about twice more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a 'Helene' type Category 4 can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Typhoon Shanshan

A “Shanshan” type typhoon at landfall is about 36% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline. Find the analysis here.

Typhoon Gaemi

Typhoon Gaemi was a destructive Category 4 West Pacific typhoon. Typhoons reaching Taiwan like Gaemi have become about 50% more likely due to human-caused climate change. Find the analysis here.

Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Beryl was a Category 4 storm that made landfall near Jamaica in July 2024. IRIS estimates that, at landfall, Hurricane Beryl was a once-in-35-year event. Find the analysis here.

Contact us

For more information, please contact: grantham.media@imperial.ac.uk.