• The Jameel Institute will be hosting a workshop event this November in Bangkok to soft launch DAEDALUS Explore among leading infectious disease researchers, modellers and policymakers
  • DAEDALUS Explore is powered by an innovative integrated economic-epidemiological model which addresses the agonizing trade-off between lives-and-livelihoods made in epidemic preparedness and response policymaking

What is integrated modelling and why is it so important to the success of future epidemic policymaking?
We all bear witness to the ways in which the COVID-19 damaged society. Over the course of the pandemic there were 15 million excess deaths; there was the largest global economic crisis in more than a century; and many millions of students experienced an isolated, inadequate and interrupted education. And in the midst of the public health disaster, policymakers often found themselves making near-impossible decisions balancing the trade-off between lives and livelihoods.  

Unfortunately, many countries did not have the tools or evidence to make informed decisions about these trade-offs. As a result, public health, economic and educational policies were often developed and adopted in silos. Yet lives and livelihoods are entangled and attempts to create a divide between the two denies this reality and ignores the suffering that arises from the unintended consequences.

This policymaking dilemma led to an explosion of research into integrated economic-epidemiological (econ-epi) modelling. Econ-epi models utilise a mix of economic data (such as what % of a country’s workforce works in each business sector) and epidemiological data (such as the transmissibility of a pathogen). The models may also map out relationships between the two types of data inputs (for example, they may tease out the average transmission rate of a pathogen by business sector). These data feed into a mathematic model and output both economic and epidemiological outcomes of interest – such as expected GDP loss or lives lost in a future pandemic scenario.

Econ-epi models can therefore help overcome policy silos by providing decision makers with answers to the agonizing lives-and-livelihoods trade-offs, such as “How much international tourism can we allow to continue while ensuring our hospitals are not overwhelmed with patients?” or “What vaccine coverage do we first need to achieve to be able to re-open schools without causing a significant increase in excess deaths?”. Econ-epi models can also project the benefits of better pandemic preparedness, for example, bolstered vaccine manufacturing capacity or increases in hospital capacity.

Moving from DAEDALUS to DAEDALUS Explore
During this period of rapid interest and growth in econ-epi modelling, the Jameel Institute was at the fore.

The model is currently tailored to around 60 countries and 7 pathogens with pandemic potential, meaning that the model is designed to generate much-needed context-specific evidence.

Now, the Jameel Institute’s EPPI team are taking the model one step further by using it to build DAEDALUS Explore: an online dashboard for policymakers to see how different levels of pandemic preparedness and response would impact deaths and the economy in their country of interest under different pandemic scenarios. Professor Hauck adds: 

“With DAEDALUS Explore, we are turning a complex model into an easy-to-use tool. We can empower decision makers in countries around the world to make the best decisions for pandemic preparedness, and to navigate between lives-and-livelihoods when responding to pandemics. The Jameel Institute hopes that DAEDALUS Explore becomes a valuable global public good to support effective pandemic preparedness and response in the future.”

 

 

Video

DAEDALUS dashboard demonstration Play video
DAEDALUS dashboard demonstration

Next steps to making DAEDALUS Explore a global public good
With this vision in mind, the Jameel Institute are excited to be hosting a workshop alongside colleagues from the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, in the lead up to the inaugural Infectious Disease Modelling Conference. At the event, some of the world’s leading infectious disease researchers, modellers and policymakers will come together to put the DAEDALUS Explore prototype to the test. At the workshop, which will be held on the 5th of November in Bangkok, attendees will be the first cohort ever to receive access to and training on integrated modelling, and on DAEDALUS Explore. The workshop will also be used to gather invaluable feedback on whether DAEDALUS Explore and the information it communicates is straightforward, transparent and useful. This workshop therefore represents a key stepping stone in the Jameel Institute’s journey to ensuring DAEDALUS Explore is the best it can be before launch in autumn next year.

Find out more

  • If you are attending the Infectious Disease Modelling confererence this November, we would love for you to join us out our pre-conference workshop. Full details and sign-up here!
  • If you are interesting in finding out more about DAEDALUS Explore in advance of next year's launch, please contact Professor Katharina Hauck here.