BibTex format
@article{Morales-Castilla:2024:10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2,
author = {Morales-Castilla, I and Davies, TJ and Legault, G and Buonaiuto, DM and Chamberlain, CJ and Ettinger, AK and Garner, M and Jones, FAM and Loughnan, D and Pearse, WD and Sodhi, DS and Wolkovich, EM},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {989--995},
title = {Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2},
volume = {14},
year = {2024}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - The ability to adapt to climate change requires accurate ecological forecasting. Current forecasts, however, have failed to capture important variability in biological responses, especially across species. Here we present a new method using Bayesian hierarchical phylogenetic models and show that species-level differences are larger than the average differences between cues. Applying our method to phenological experiments manipulating temperature and day length we show an underlying phylogenetic structure in plant phenological responses to temperature cues, whereas responses to photoperiod appear weaker, more uniform across species and less phylogenetically constrained. We thus illustrate how a focus on certain clades can bias prediction, but that predictions may be improved by integrating information on phylogeny to better estimate species-level responses. Our approach provides an advance in ecological forecasting, with implications for predicting the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic forces on ecosystems.
AU - Morales-Castilla,I
AU - Davies,TJ
AU - Legault,G
AU - Buonaiuto,DM
AU - Chamberlain,CJ
AU - Ettinger,AK
AU - Garner,M
AU - Jones,FAM
AU - Loughnan,D
AU - Pearse,WD
AU - Sodhi,DS
AU - Wolkovich,EM
DO - 10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2
EP - 995
PY - 2024///
SN - 1758-678X
SP - 989
TI - Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting
T2 - Nature Climate Change
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2
VL - 14
ER -