@article{Knight:2020:10.1101/2020.07.30.20165464,
author = {Knight, SR and Ho, A and Pius, R and Buchan, I and Carson, G and Drake, TM and Dunning, J and Fairfield, CJ and Gamble, C and Green, CA and Gupta, R and Halpin, S and Hardwick, HE and Holden, KA and Horby, PW and Jackson, C and Mclean, KA and Merson, L and Nguyen-Van-Tam, JS and Norman, L and Noursadeghi, M and Olliaro, PL and Pritchard, MG and Russell, CD and Shaw, CA and Sheikh, A and Solomon, T and Sudlow, C and Swann, OV and Turtle, LCW and Openshaw, PJM and Baillie, JK and Semple, MG and Docherty, AB and Harrison, EM},
doi = {10.1101/2020.07.30.20165464},
journal = {MedRxiv},
title = {Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.30.20165464},
year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives</jats:title><jats:p>To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality for patients admitted to hospital with covid-19.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design</jats:title><jats:p>Prospective observational cohort study: ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study (ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium [4C]). Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited between 21 May and 29 June 2020.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants</jats:title><jats:p>Adult patients (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 admitted at least four weeks before final data extraction.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main outcome measures</jats:title><jats:p>In-hospital mortality.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>There were 34 692 patients included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 31.7%) and 22 454 in the validation dataset (mortality 31.5%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea, and C-reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C risk stratification score demonstrated high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: AUROC 0.79; 95% CI 0.78 − 0.79; validation cohort 0.78, 0.77-0.79) with excellent calibration (slope = 1.0). Patients with a score ≥15 (n = 2310, 17.4%) had a 67% mortality (i.
AU  - Knight,SR
AU  - Ho,A
AU  - Pius,R
AU  - Buchan,I
AU  - Carson,G
AU  - Drake,TM
AU  - Dunning,J
AU  - Fairfield,CJ
AU  - Gamble,C
AU  - Green,CA
AU  - Gupta,R
AU  - Halpin,S
AU  - Hardwick,HE
AU  - Holden,KA
AU  - Horby,PW
AU  - Jackson,C
AU  - Mclean,KA
AU  - Merson,L
AU  - Nguyen-Van-Tam,JS
AU  - Norman,L
AU  - Noursadeghi,M
AU  - Olliaro,PL
AU  - Pritchard,MG
AU  - Russell,CD
AU  - Shaw,CA
AU  - Sheikh,A
AU  - Solomon,T
AU  - Sudlow,C
AU  - Swann,OV
AU  - Turtle,LCW
AU  - Openshaw,PJM
AU  - Baillie,JK
AU  - Semple,MG
AU  - Docherty,AB
AU  - Harrison,EM
DO  - 10.1101/2020.07.30.20165464
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score
T2  - MedRxiv
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.30.20165464
ER  - 

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