UN Climate Talks: Imperial's policy expert gives thoughts and predictions

Alyssa Gilbert, Head of Policy at the Grantham Institute, gives her thoughts ahead of the UN climate talks in Paris, starting 30 November.

What are your hopes for negotiations in Paris COP21?

In my view, the most important thing is unity between respective global leaders. It is extremely important that these leaders get a deal out of the negotiations; the deal in itself is an endorsement that the issue is important and that countries are doing something to manage it. If there isn’t a deal in Paris, then the whole international system set up to fight climate change is broken in a major way. At one of the most recent large climate change conferences in Copenhagen (COP15; 2009) the deal was not as far-reaching as had been hoped, and it was really hard to recover and to get the negotiations back on track. I think if the Paris talks were to fail, there’s no way back really.

Fortunately, though, I think that success is likely and there is every reason to be hopeful. Countries have already made reduction commitments and targets they will try to achieve. It’s important that people sign up to these commitments (from 2020 onwards) but it is also important that they stick to them and improve them as time goes on.

The Robeson Islands in the San Blas archipelago (Panama) are under threat from rising water levels (Credit: COP21, Photos of a Changing World)

How will these talks differ from past summits which have struggled?

In the intervening 6 years since Copenhagen, a lot has changed with significant economic growth in countries such as China and India. Crucially, we are at point where every country is bringing reduction goals to the table. In Copenhagen it was too early for that to be possible. China and the US are now ready and have shaken hands on the importance of forming a deal at Paris. All of these changing political dynamics just weren’t happening at the other negotiations. The landscape has evolved significantly.

The French hosts and UNFCCC secretariat have put in an enormous effort to ensure that an agreement takes place. They have been speaking to negotiating parties in advance, making sure they understand the process. Structures have been created to bring people on-board early. In May there was a big climate and business conference in Paris where thousands of business stakeholders attended, talking about climate change and business. Then in July there was a large conference for scientists to discuss the scientific logistics of it all. There has really been a conscious effort to build up the right context to deliver success. Yet, there is also a risk that parties are so eager to get a deal done that they might just go for the lowest common denominator option. So we need to be mindful of avoiding that.

Drought, one of the consequences of climate change (Credit COP21: Photos of Changing World)

Does Imperial have a presence at Paris COP21?

Yes, there is Imperial representation from both the Grantham Institute and the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial. As well as the central negotiations, the event is used as an opportunity for leaders in climate change research to share ideas and information within their community by hosting official side events and exhibition stands. The Imperial team is exhibiting in collaboration with the Walker Institute, University of Reading. That stand will be there for the whole two weeks where we can give people information on the research and policy work that we are producing here at Imperial.

We are also hosting an official side events in partnership with other organisations. Our event is focussed on solutions − looking across the next 15 years and asking what technology we need to have in place to achieve the aspirations of Paris. Our panel will consider the types of investments and policy changes that we need to put into place to make sure that these technologies take off. We hope to stimulate debate and discussion around our work.

Do you think that there is too much emphasis on the Paris talks?

I guess it depends on your perspective. I see it as an important backdrop to action on climate change, but certainly not the whole story. We want people to realise that Paris is not an end game – even if we get a great deal in place, this is only the beginning! The ultimate goal is putting in place good climate change mitigation and adapting to some of the impacts that climate change will cause. There is an enormous amount of work that needs to be done in each and every one of those countries to actually achieve the goals set out at the talks. The COP does attract significant media coverage and that galvanises each of those individual countries into action.

Iceberg drifting off the village of Kulusuk in Greenland (Credit: COP21, Photos of a Changing World)

Is there a concern around policymakers not understanding science and scientists not understanding how policies are formed?

It is an issue of course, but perhaps overstated at times. To do science that impacts policy, you don’t have to understand all of the intricacies of policy making, and to make well-informed policy decisions, you don’t have to know all of the intricate details of science. But policymakers must understand the value of science and evidence in their work, and be equipped with a range of credible sources over a range of different topics. It’s about improving and forming better links and networks between different players – in academia and policy-making – and then when you’re confident that this link is in place, creating the right sort of information to share across this network. Importantly this information needs to be in the right language and format to make it accessible and useful to policymakers.

I often ask policymakers: what questions would you want academia to answer for you in four years’ time? One question might for example be: ‘what is the real potential to manage the amount of energy demanded by consumers to provide flexibility in our electricity system’’. The only way to answer that is by speaking to experts on smart grids as well as behavioural science. All of this investigation has to be packaged into an easily-digestible source of information that policymakers can use, and circulated to them at the right time.

What are the biggest obstacles to communicating climate change science to the public in the future?

The main challenge is dealing with uncertainty. Our knowledge base is constantly improving. Our depth of understanding on climate change will increase but as a result it will become more complex to communicate. For example the spatial resolution of models of climate change impact are getting better, so when projections are made in the new model, the messages might be different to the old ones in certain specific locations. We need to find a way to constantly carry the public with us, as our knowledge evolves, because climate change mitigation depends on individual, collective actions that must start now.

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