POSTnote on Future of Natural Gas in the UK

On February 18th, the Sustainable Gas Institute welcomed Claire Carter (@clairecarter68) as our speaker for our first lunchtime seminar

Claire was visiting from Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex, to present research she carried out uring a fellowship at the Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology (POST). The reserch output is a POSTnote on the Future of Natural Gas in the UK that was published in November 2015.

POSTnotes are short briefings that provide a balanced and accessible overview to parliamentarians on complex scientific subjects.

Claire interviewed a range of experits from academia, government, NGO’s and industry, and in addition researched the literature. This was to determine the main issues surrounding the part natural gas plays in the UK’s energy mix and in particular how gas addresses the trilemma of issues; energy security, affordability and also addresses climate change.

Here are some findings from the report:-

• In 2014, the UK used 70 billion cubic metres of natural gas (including biogas).
• Around 55% of our natural gas is from domestic sources in the North Sea.Domestic production peaked in 2000 but is now declining and expected to halve by 2030.

• Currently, 45% is imported. This is likely to rise to potentially as much as 90% with increasing reliance on LNG from Australia, Russia, and US.
• UK has diverse range of supplies; LNG, and interconnectors and pipelines with Norway, Netherlands and Belgium.
• The domestic sector  is the biggest consumer of natural gas.
• The UK is massively dependent on gas for heating (70%). A significant decline in gas for heating is needed to meet 2050 carbon targets. But there are many low carbon options (e.g. heat pumps electric/gas, etc.).
• The UK has an extensive network of gas pipelines– several hundred thousand kilometres.
• There is a variety of different storage sites in the UK for different purposes. The UK has one single long term storage site; ‘Rough’. However, this is already 40 years old and has suffered some problems recently.
• Although natural gas has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to other fossil fuels, power stations in 2014 contributed to 30% of UK’s total GHG emissions. If we are committed to climate change targets, there needs to be a 50% reduction by 2025.
• There could be the potential to produce 7 billion cubic metres per annum of biogas by 2025.
• There is also potential to exploit shale gas but regulatory and monitoring safeguards will need to be put in place to limit all environmental issues and concerns. 

• Hydrogen produces zero emissions and could be a cost effective way to decarbonise residential heating. However, it has very different properties to methane. There are safety issues and question marks over potential leakages even from upgrade of iron pipework to polyethylene.
• Carbon capture & storage (CCS) gives gas more room for a role in electricity provision.   Natural gas and CCS could provide up to 30% power 2030. However, if there is no CCS, gas power will need to decline considerably by 2030.
• Natural gas could play a role in the transport sector especially in areas where electrification is not practical e.g. HGVs and buses. Trials are being undertaken with CNG/LNG. Hydrogen via gas and CCS could be used in fuel cells potentially with 50% light duty vehicles by 2050.

Claire concluded that natural gas will certainly play some role in the UK in future. However, the size and type of its role is very uncertain. Decarbonising the heating sector will be a huge challenge and shortfalls in heating requirement potentially even more politically charged (if results in more deaths in winter for example). Other major factors that influence the size and type of role gas will play in the UK include: Deployment of carbon capture & storage (CCS), an effective carbon price, and the relative progress of alternatives. This is in addition to a serious political commitment to meeting climate targets.