COP26: The time for delivery is now, say Imperial experts
Experts discuss the work that needs to happen now, after the UN climate change conference concluded with a new agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact.
COP26, the United Nations Climate Change Conference that came to a conclusion in Glasgow this weekend, has delivered a new climate pact that was agreed by more than 190 countries that have signed up to the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The conference saw the UK Presidency finalise an agreement where all signatories acknowledged, for the first time, that burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) is warming the planet and causing our climate to change.
Countries also agreed the long-discussed Paris Rulebook, a set of important technical guidelines to implement the Paris Agreement, including guidance on carbon trading; common timeframes for countries’ emissions reduction targets; and guidelines on transparency.
However, many were disappointed by the shortfall in countries’ pledges to cut their emissions, known as their ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ (NDCs), which scientists say still do not put the world on track for the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Dr Fredi Otto, Senior Lecturer at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: “1.5°C is not dead, but pledges do not reduce emissions, only national policies do, and they have to be implemented. So, it’s a Schrödinger’s cat situation in that it’s dead and alive for now – and we’ll only know which it really is when we measure emissions in the coming years.”
Another critically important part of the COP26 negotiations was the issue of climate justice, and finance from developed countries to help developing countries adapt to the impacts of climate change, as well as compensate for what is known as ‘loss and damage’ – those impacts that cannot be adapted to, such as hurricanes destroying homes, or island nations disappearing due to sea level rise.
COP26 saw progress on acknowledging the importance of this finance and the responsibility of developed countries to provide it, but many developing countries were left frustrated with a lack of tangible outcomes.
Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Policy and Translation at the Grantham Institute, said: “At an international stage, loss and damage was a bigger and clearer discussion in this COP than I have seen previously, but still not addressed head on. This topic will remain essential to developing nations and an international compromise is not clear yet.”
For experts at Imperial College London, a delegation of whom attended the climate summit as official observers of the process, the opportunity to meet activists, business representatives and policymakers from all over the world has sparked new discussions and ideas.
In this piece, they consider what the Glasgow Climate Pact means for their ongoing work to bring about a greener, cleaner, fairer future for all, and emphasise the importance of rapid, immediate action to deliver on the outcomes of COP26, and close the gaps and shortfalls it left behind.
Emission reduction pledges
“Certainly, the next attempt to raise ambition cannot wait another 6 years – and one outcome from Glasgow will be more regular updates to carbon reduction targets. Such meetings may succeed if non-State actors and Governments work together to form not just 'pledges' but comprehensive plans for rapid decarbonisation that are supported by their citizens.”
Climate finance and justice
“The weak outcome on loss and damages […] shows that climate change is still mainly regarded as a future problem in anything other than rhetoric. The developed states are still not prepared to take responsibility for what has happened already and that is a problem, the next COP really needs to move forward on climate justice which is not just inter-generational.”
“Doubling adaptation finance from 2019 levels [as agreed in the COP26 text] is great, but this still does not fill the adaptation finance gap.” She continued: “The private sector needs to be engaged in financing adaptation for the scale of finance needed to flow. Governments therefore need to start rewarding investment in resilience and sustainability.”
“Similarly, just transitions are an essential part of the discussion. Recognised very clearly in Glasgow, but also lacking funding and, perhaps like adaptation, it is still not clear what a just transition really looks like – which could be very different in different parts of the world. This will remain an important area for development.”
Nature and biodiversity
Postgraduate Researcher Galina emphasised that future action must “bridge the gap between the climate and biodiversity agendas. Currently, climate change and global biodiversity loss have separate international conventions (UNFCCC and CBD, respectively). The vital next step is to enable a unified approach where international goal and targets are well-informed and appropriately implemented to simultaneously tackle both crises and avoid finding ourselves with divergent goals and targets that should be tackled under one banner, where progress towards one can be at the expense of the other.”
Fossil fuels
For Krista, “the next important question is, what will a managed phase-out look like in practice, from the perspective of companies, governments and investors?”, a question which is central to her research. “I think the announcements at COP26 have paved the way for more concerted efforts and new collaborations to develop pathways and solutions in this area.”
Looking ahead, Krista said “the discussions at COP26 show that even though an energy transition will not happen overnight, fossil fuel phase-out is now firmly on the global agenda. I hope that governments, companies, and investors will take note of this and start planning for a managed transition away from fossil fuels now. Delaying the planning will only increase the risk of a sudden and disorderly transition, likely to have significant negative impacts on societies, economies and investments.”
Civil society and climate change
Societal engagement with climate change – through education, local climate solutions and citizen engagement – will play an essential role in driving climate action.
“Although the level of public support for climate action is very high, it still remains a significant challenge to implement emission reductions on the scale and speed necessary while keeping all the public on board. This challenge points to the importance of deliberative democratic approaches for guiding local climate action and to focusing on the principles of a Just Transition – ensuring that the shift to a low carbon economy is well planned and that no one is left behind.”
“It's important that we can create communities that have the foundations to care for each other and our health while simultaneously acting on climate. The good news is that invariably, what is good for climate is good for people's mental health; whether reducing air pollution, more active ways of getting around, or more tree cover and biodiversity in our cities.
“We will be working with our partners around the world to create ways to learn from each other and ensure the hidden costs of climate inaction on our wellbeing, as well as the multiple benefits of climate action for healthier, fairer societies, are accounted for and heard by decision-makers.”
Representation and inclusion
With the UK Presidency committing to deliver an “inclusive COP26”, Postgraduate Researcher Paloma reflected: “since I started studying my PhD on energy access, I realised how important it is to understand and include the needs of the local communities before designing any type of intervention. COP26 has reinforced this view, because the most valuable lessons I learned and the wisest words I heard during the week I attended COP26 were from youth activists and indigenous people.
Like Paloma, Postgraduate Researcher Patrick was inspired by youth activism “especially against the backdrop of what is an incredibly slow and oftentimes demoralising process, it injected much need enthusiasm and inspiration, giving hope that we can begin to hold governments and corporations to account so that they can bring down emissions and move towards greater sustainability.”
However, Paloma highlighted that youth and indigenous groups “were underrepresented, and on many occasions, overlooked by decision makers, media and other people attending COP26. I really believe that we need to give them the space and attention they deserve and include them more in the process.”
Postgraduate Galina agreed, emphasising that COP is “the only formal democratic space where smaller climate-vulnerable nations have a voice and the only place where indigenous peoples, women and other groups disproportionally affected by climate change have a voice, but only when they are not locked out of the process. RINGOs, the only non-advocacy observer constituency, were also locked out. UNFCCC must ensure this is not repeated at future COPs.”
Reflecting on the UK Presidency, Alyssa Gilbert said: “It was hugely inspiring to have a COP hosted by my home country. The locality meant that the discourse influenced people across the nation, spurred on by greater media attention, and the UK as hosting government was forced, even if too briefly, to make climate change issues central to other policy areas and commitments. I had underestimated how powerful this effect can be.”
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