New research suggests energy access may be overestimated for 87 million people

Approximately 87 million people in sub-Saharan Africa may not have access to electricity despite being counted as such.

Collaborative research by an international team including Imperial College London compares data from two key agencies tracking progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7) on energy and finds that their estimates differ for at least 87 million individuals.

This is due in large part to widely varying interpretations in what counts as access. 

Published in Nature Energy, the data represents almost half (45%) of total reported progress towards electrification in the region. The uncertainty is due to major discrepancies in data collection approaches by international organisations. Researchers are calling for methodological standardisation of what ‘counts’ as energy access to track meaningful progress.

Dr Koen H Van Dam, Research Fellow, Department of Chemical Engineering, and a co-author from Imperial College London said: “We want to support local development goals through demand-led research and building in-country capacity. However, without transparent data it is not possible to design the most effective policies and interventions, in this case to increase access to electricity across sub-Saharan Africa.

Imperial is part of the Climate Compatible Growth programme, with the Department of Chemical Engineering providing expertise in modelling and simulation as well as system design. Dr Koen H Van Dam Research Fellow

That work typically relies on high quality data on the technical systems as well as the socio-demographic and economic context.”

Associate Professor Stephanie Hirmer, a lead author from University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science and Climate Compatible Growth programme explains the challenge with different definitions of electricity access: “If a village has a transformer, everyone in the village may be counted as having access to electricity – even if there is no physical connection to their home. We need an agreed standard of what ‘counts’ as access to electricity that can be updated over time to reflect the reality on the ground. As a first step, agencies should provide explicit metadata documenting access definitions. Without these changes, the international community can’t track progress in a meaningful way: we’re left in the dark in more ways than one.”

Critically analysing statistics

The authors add that while energy access is therefore uncertain for this group and may be overreported, these statistics are often taken at face value and used to guide significant policy decisions.

The authors conclude that it is now crucial to look more critically at the data and ensure it is accurately reflecting realities on the ground in order to continue making progress towards SDG7: “ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.” 

The research team is part of the UK ODA-funded Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme, and brings together researchers from the University of Oxford Department of Engineering Science and Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University College London, University of Wuppertal, Imperial College London, Technical University of Munich and KTH Royal Institute of Technology.