LA wildfires more likely because of climate change, says attribution study

Human-caused climate change made the ferocious wildfires in Los Angeles more likely, according to new research.

The study, from World Weather Attribution at Imperial College London, shows that reduced rainfall, dried out vegetation, and increasing overlap between flammable drought conditions and strong Santa Ana winds up to 100 miles per hour - all linked to climate change – contributed to the severity and likelihood of the wildfires. The fires have killed 28 people, forced more than 200,000 to evacuate, and destroyed or damaged more than 16,000 homes and buildings.

An Imperial wildfires expert is also warning that following the fires, toxic fumes are now a concern in Los Angeles.

Researchers warn that LA will get drier and more flammable with continued fossil fuel burning, which is causing earth’s temperature to rise.

This study was carried out by 32 researchers, including leading wildfire scientists from the US and Europe, as part of World Weather Attribution - led by Dr Fredi Otto at Imperial College London - which has studied the influence of climate change on more than 90 extreme events around the world.

Dr Clair Barnes, World Weather Attribution Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said:

“Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires. Drought conditions are more frequently pushing into winter, increasing the chance a fire will break out during strong Santa Ana winds that can turn small ignitions into deadly infernos.

“Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier, and more flammable.”

The study also includes an analysis of vulnerability and exposure, which looks at who was harmed in the fires and why.

While Southern California is well accustomed to wildfires, the researchers note that a range of factors turned the fires into a disaster, including water infrastructure that could not cope with the demands of fighting two major fires at once.

Roop Singh, Head of Urban and Attribution at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and an author of the study, said:

“Climate change set the stage, helping turn the hills around LA tinder-dry. However, hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, the rapid spread of fires into urban zones, and a strained water system all made the blazes extremely difficult to contain.”

Fossil fuel burning contributed

The World Weather Attribution study warns that Los Angeles will face even greater fire risk if humans continue to rely on fossil fuels, rather than transitioning to renewable energy, which is the most effective way to cut planet-heating emissions.

Dr Friederike Otto, co-lead of World Weather Attribution and Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at Imperial College London, said:

“Climate change is continuing to destroy lives and livelihoods in the US.

“From violent hurricanes in the east, to nightmarish wildfires in the west, Americans are experiencing the devastating consequences of fossil fuel warming.

“In 2025, the choices facing world leaders remain the same – to drill and continue to burn oil, gas and coal and experience ever more dangerous weather, or transition to renewable energy for a safer and fairer world.”

[Top image credit: Cal Fire]