Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Christl Donnelly CBE FMedSci FRS

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Professor
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

c.donnelly Website

 
 
//

Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Eales:2023:10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118,
author = {Eales, O and Haw, D and Wang, H and Atchison, C and Ashby, D and Cooke, GS and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Donnelly, CA and Chadeau-Hyam, M and Elliott, P and Riley, S},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118},
journal = {PLoS Biology},
pages = {1--21},
title = {Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118},
volume = {21},
year = {2023}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reliable estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and infection hospitalisation ratio (IHR) along with the time-delay between infection and hospitalisation/death can inform forecasts of the numbers/timing of severe outcomes and allow healthcare services to better prepare for periods of increased demand. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to March 2022. Here, we analyse the changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the IFR and IHR over this period in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models, and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in 2 subgroups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under. Additionally, we analysed the relationship between swab positivity and daily case numbers to estimate the case ascertainment rate of England's mass testing programme. During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late 2021/early 2022, the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76%, respectively. The average case ascertainment rate over the entire duration of the study was estimated to be 36.1%, but there was some significant variation in continuous estimates of the case ascertainment rate. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta's emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Cooke,GS
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Chadeau-Hyam,M
AU  - Elliott,P
AU  - Riley,S
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118
EP  - 21
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 1544-9173
SP  - 1
TI  - Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England
T2  - PLoS Biology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37228015
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/104617
VL  - 21
ER  -
Download