@article{Gryspeerdt:2020:10.5194/acp-20-613-2020,
author = {Gryspeerdt, E and Mülmenstädt, J and Gettelman, A and Malavelle, F and Morrison, H and Neubauer, D and Partridge, D and Stier, P and Takemura, T and Wang, H and Wang, M and Zhang, K},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-613-2020},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
pages = {613--623},
title = {Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-613-2020},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the mostuncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosoleffective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the IPCC AR5 report. With theirown sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model-observational difference is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate.These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in modeland observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model output, the two different linesof evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties.Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effectby less than 50%. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimatescould be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.
AU  - Gryspeerdt,E
AU  - Mülmenstädt,J
AU  - Gettelman,A
AU  - Malavelle,F
AU  - Morrison,H
AU  - Neubauer,D
AU  - Partridge,D
AU  - Stier,P
AU  - Takemura,T
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,M
AU  - Zhang,K
DO  - 10.5194/acp-20-613-2020
EP  - 623
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1680-7316
SP  - 613
TI  - Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates
T2  - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-613-2020
UR  - https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/613/2020/
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/74865
VL  - 20
ER  - 

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