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@article{Kasoar:2021:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13822,
author = {Kasoar, M and Hamilton, D and Dalmonech, D and Hantson, S and Lasslop, G and Voulgarakis, A and Wells, C},
doi = {10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13822},
title = {Improved estimates of future fire emissions under CMIP6 scenarios and implications for aerosol radiative forcing},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13822},
year = {2021}
}
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TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:p>&lt;p&gt;The CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios include projections of future changes in anthropogenic biomass-burning.&amp;#160; Globally, they assume a decrease in total fire emissions over the next century under all scenarios.&amp;#160; However, fire regimes and emissions are expected to additionally change with future climate, and the methodology used to project fire emissions in the SSP scenarios is opaque.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We aim to provide a more traceable estimate of future fire emissions under CMIP6 scenarios and evaluate the impacts for aerosol radiative forcing. &amp;#160;We utilise interactive wildfire emissions from four independent land-surface models (CLM5, JSBACH3.2, LPJ-GUESS, and ISBA-CTRIP) used within CMIP6 ESMs, and two different machine-learning methods (a random forest, and a generalised additive model) trained on historical data, to predict year 2100 biomass-burning aerosol emissions consistent with the CMIP6-modelled climate for three different scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585.&amp;#160; This multi-method approach provides future fire emissions integrating information from observations, projections of climate, socioeconomic parameters and changes in vegetation distribution and fuel loads.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our analysis shows a robust increase in fire emissions for large areas of the extra-tropics until the end of this century for all methods.&amp;#160; Although this pattern was present to an extent in the original SSP projections, both the interactive fire models and machine-learning methods predict substantially higher increases in extra-tropical emissions in 2100 than the corresponding SSP datasets.&amp;#160; Within the tropics the signal is mixed. Increases in emissions are largely driven by the temperature changes, while in some tropical areas reductions in fire emissions are
AU  - Kasoar,M
AU  - Hamilton,D
AU  - Dalmonech,D
AU  - Hantson,S
AU  - Lasslop,G
AU  - Voulgarakis,A
AU  - Wells,C
DO  - 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13822
PY  - 2021///
TI  - Improved estimates of future fire emissions under CMIP6 scenarios and implications for aerosol radiative forcing
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13822
ER  -
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