In this section
@article{Ceppi:2024:10.1029/2024GL110525,
author = {Ceppi, P and Myers, TA and Nowack, P and Wall, CJ and Zelinka, MD},
doi = {10.1029/2024GL110525},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
title = {Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110525},
volume = {51},
year = {2024}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low-cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low-cloud feedback (0.45 W (Formula presented.) (Formula presented.), 90% range 0.18–0.72 W (Formula presented.) (Formula presented.)), about twice the mean value (0.22 W (Formula presented.) (Formula presented.)) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean-state bias: models underestimate the low-cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present-day tropical marine low-cloud amount, and (b) the low-cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present-day low-cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.
AU - Ceppi,P
AU - Myers,TA
AU - Nowack,P
AU - Wall,CJ
AU - Zelinka,MD
DO - 10.1029/2024GL110525
PY - 2024///
SN - 0094-8276
TI - Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110525
VL - 51
ER -