BibTex format
@article{Silvy:2024:10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024,
author = {Silvy, Y and Frölicher, TL and Terhaar, J and Joos, F and Burger, FA and Lacroix, F and Allen, M and Bernardello, R and Bopp, L and Brovkin, V and Buzan, JR and Cadule, P and Dix, M and Dunne, J and Friedlingstein, P and Georgievski, G and Hajima, T and Jenkins, S and Kawamiya, M and Kiang, NY and Lapin, V and Lee, D and Lerner, P and Mengis, N and Monteiro, EA and Paynter, D and Peters, GP and Romanou, A and Schwinger, J and Sparrow, S and Stofferahn, E and Tjiputra, J and Tourigny, E and Ziehn, T},
doi = {10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
pages = {1591--1628},
title = {AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024},
volume = {15},
year = {2024}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (-1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr-1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO2-fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (-1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr-1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO2-fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment - initially assumed to be zero - and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO2-fe em
AU - Silvy,Y
AU - Frölicher,TL
AU - Terhaar,J
AU - Joos,F
AU - Burger,FA
AU - Lacroix,F
AU - Allen,M
AU - Bernardello,R
AU - Bopp,L
AU - Brovkin,V
AU - Buzan,JR
AU - Cadule,P
AU - Dix,M
AU - Dunne,J
AU - Friedlingstein,P
AU - Georgievski,G
AU - Hajima,T
AU - Jenkins,S
AU - Kawamiya,M
AU - Kiang,NY
AU - Lapin,V
AU - Lee,D
AU - Lerner,P
AU - Mengis,N
AU - Monteiro,EA
AU - Paynter,D
AU - Peters,GP
AU - Romanou,A
AU - Schwinger,J
AU - Sparrow,S
AU - Stofferahn,E
AU - Tjiputra,J
AU - Tourigny,E
AU - Ziehn,T
DO - 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
EP - 1628
PY - 2024///
SN - 2190-4979
SP - 1591
TI - AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization
T2 - Earth System Dynamics
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
VL - 15
ER -