Publications

Journal article

Teoh R, Schumann U, Gryspeerdt E, Shapiro M, Molloy J, Koudis G, Voigt C, Stettler MEJet al., 2022,

Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021

, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 22, Pages: 10919-10935, ISSN: 1680-7316

Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO2 (+3.13 % yr−1) and nitrogen oxide emissions (+4.5 % yr−1) outpaced increases in flight distance (+3.05 % yr−1). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m−2) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled (−66 %), CO2 emissions (−71 %) and the contrail net RF (−66 %) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m−2) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation.

Journal article

Sharan S, Langlais B, Amit H, Thebault E, Pinceloup M, Verhoeven Oet al., 2022,

The Internal Structure and Dynamics of Jupiter Unveiled by a High-Resolution Magnetic Field and Secular Variation Model

, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 49, ISSN: 0094-8276

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Citations: 13

Journal article

Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

Author Correction: On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall.

, Sci Rep, Vol: 12

Journal article

Rasca AP, Farrell WM, Whittlesey PL, MacDowall RJ, Bale SD, Kasper JCet al., 2022,

Magnetic Field Dropouts and Associated Plasma Wave Emission near the Electron Plasma Frequency at Switchback Boundaries as Observed by the Parker Solar Probe

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 935, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 4

Journal article

Telloni D, Zank GP, Sorriso-Valvo L, D'Amicis R, Panasenco O, Susino R, Bruno R, Perrone D, Adhikari L, Liang H, Nakanotani M, Zhao L, Hadid LZ, Sanchez-Cano B, Verscharen D, Velli M, Grimani C, Marino R, Carbone F, Mancuso S, Biondo R, Pagano P, Reale F, Bale SD, Kasper JC, Case AW, de Wit TD, Goetz K, Harvey PR, Korreck KE, Larson D, Livi R, MacDowall RJ, Malaspina DM, Pulupa M, Stevens ML, Whittlesey P, Romoli M, Andretta V, Da Deppo V, Fineschi S, Heinzel P, Moses JD, Naletto G, Nicolini G, Spadaro D, Stangalini M, Teriaca L, Capobianco G, Capuano GE, Casini C, Casti M, Chioetto P, Corso AJ, De Leo Y, Fabi M, Frassati F, Frassetto F, Giordano S, Guglielmino SL, Jerse G, Landini F, Liberatore A, Magli E, Massone G, Messerotti M, Pancrazzi M, Pelizzo MG, Romano P, Sasso C, Schuhle U, Slemer A, Straus T, Uslenghi M, Volpicelli CA, Zangrilli L, Zuppella P, Abbo L, Auchere F, Cuadrado RA, Berlicki A, Ciaravella A, Lamy P, Lanzafame A, Malvezzi M, Nicolosi P, Nistico G, Peter H, Solanki SK, Strachan L, Tsinganos K, Ventura R, Vial J-C, Woch J, Zimbardo Get al., 2022,

Linking Small-scale Solar Wind Properties with Large-scale Coronal Source Regions through Joint Parker Solar Probe-Metis/Solar Orbiter Observations

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 935, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 12

Journal article

Sioulas N, Huang Z, Velli M, Chhiber R, Cuesta ME, Shi C, Matthaeus WH, Bandyopadhyay R, Vlahos L, Bowen TA, Qudsi RA, Bale SD, Owen CJ, Louarn P, Fedorov A, Maksimovic M, Stevens ML, Case A, Kasper J, Larson D, Pulupa M, Livi Ret al., 2022,

Magnetic Field Intermittency in the Solar Wind: Parker Solar Probe and SolO Observations Ranging from the Alfven Region up to 1 AU

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 934, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 20

Journal article

Shi C, Panasenco O, Velli M, Tenerani A, Verniero JL, Sioulas N, Huang Z, Brosius A, Bale SD, Klein K, Kasper J, de Wit TD, Goetz K, Harvey PR, MacDowall RJ, Malaspina DM, Pulupa M, Larson D, Livi R, Case A, Stevens Met al., 2022,

Patches of Magnetic Switchbacks and Their Origins

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 934, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 25

Journal article

Zhao L-L, Zank GP, Adhikari L, Telloni D, Stevens M, Kasper JC, Bale SD, Raouafi NEet al., 2022,

Turbulence and Waves in the Sub-Alfvenic Solar Wind Observed by the Parker Solar Probe during Encounter 10

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 934, ISSN: 2041-8205

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Citations: 25

Journal article

Ergun RE, Pathak N, Usanova ME, Qi Y, Vo T, Burch JL, Schwartz SJ, Torbert RB, Ahmadi N, Wilder FD, Chasipis A, Newman DL, Stawarz JE, Hesse M, Turner DL, Gershman Det al., 2022,

Observation of Magnetic Reconnection in a Region of Strong Turbulence

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 935, ISSN: 2041-8205

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Citations: 19

Journal article

Sulaiman A, Mauk B, Szalay J, Allegrini F, Clark G, Gladstone R, Kotsiaros, Kurth W, Bagenal F, Bonfond B, Connerney J, Ebert R, Elliott S, Gershman D, Hospodarsky G, Hue V, Lysak R, Masters A, Santolik, Saur J, Bolton Set al., 2022,

Jupiter’s low-altitude auroral zones: Fields, particles, plasma waves, and density depletions

, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol: 127, ISSN: 2169-9380

The Juno spacecraft's polar orbits have enabled direct sampling of Jupiter's low-altitude auroral field lines. While various data sets have identified unique features over Jupiter's main aurora, they are yet to be analyzed altogether to determine how they can be reconciled and fit into the bigger picture of Jupiter's auroral generation mechanisms. Jupiter's main aurora has been classified into distinct “zones”, based on repeatable signatures found in energetic electron and proton spectra. We combine fields, particles, and plasma wave data sets to analyze Zone-I and Zone-II, which are suggested to carry upward and downward field-aligned currents, respectively. We find Zone-I to have well-defined boundaries across all data sets. H+ and/or H3+ cyclotron waves are commonly observed in Zone-I in the presence of energetic upward H+ beams and downward energetic electron beams. Zone-II, on the other hand, does not have a clear poleward boundary with the polar cap, and its signatures are more sporadic. Large-amplitude solitary waves, which are reminiscent of those ubiquitous in Earth's downward current region, are a key feature of Zone-II. Alfvénic fluctuations are most prominent in the diffuse aurora and are repeatedly found to diminish in Zone-I and Zone-II, likely due to dissipation, at higher altitudes, to energize auroral electrons. Finally, we identify significant electron density depletions, by up to 2 orders of magnitude, in Zone-I, and discuss their important implications for the development of parallel potentials, Alfvénic dissipation, and radio wave generation.

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Journal article

Clear CP, Pickering JC, Nave G, Uylings P, Raassen Tet al., 2022,

Wavelengths and energy levels of singly ionized nickel (Ni ii) measured using fourier transform spectroscopy

, The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, Vol: 261, Pages: 35-35, ISSN: 0067-0049

High-resolution spectra of singly ionized nickel (Ni ii) have been recorded using Fourier transform spectroscopy in the region 143–5555 nm (1800–70,000 cm−1) with continuous, nickel–helium hollow cathode discharge sources. An extensive analysis of identified Ni ii lines resulted in the confirmation and revision of 283 previously reported energy levels, from the ground state up to the 3d8(ML)6s subconfigurations. Typical energy-level uncertainties are a few thousandths of a cm−1, representing at least an order-of-magnitude reduction in uncertainty with respect to previous measurements. Twenty-five new energy levels have now been established and are reported here for the first time. Eigenvector compositions of the energy levels have been calculated using the orthogonal operator method. In total, 159 even and 149 odd energy levels and 1424 classified line wavelengths of Ni ii are reported and will enable more accurate and reliable analyses of Ni ii in astrophysical spectra.

Journal article

Park C, Shin S-W, Kim G, Cha D-H, Min S-K, Lee D, Byun Y-H, Kim J-Uet al., 2022,

What determines future changes in photovoltaic potential over East Asia? (vol 185, pg 338, 2022)

, RENEWABLE ENERGY, Vol: 195, Pages: 1480-1480, ISSN: 0960-1481

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Citations: 1

Journal article

Brunmayr AS, Graven H, 2022,

Comment on "Probability Distributions of Radiocarbon in Open Linear Compartmental Systems at Steady-State" by I. Chanca, S. Trumbore, K. Macario, and C. A. Sierra

Journal article

Schwartz SJ, Goodrich KA, Wilson III LB, Turner DL, Trattner K, Kucharek H, Gingell I, Fuselier SA, Cohen IJ, Madanian H, Ergun RE, Gershman DJ, Strangeway RJet al., 2022,

Energy partition at collisionless supercritical quasiperpendicular shocks

Journal article

Graven H, Keeling R, Xu X, 2022,

Radiocarbon dating: going back in time

, NATURE, Vol: 607, Pages: 449-449, ISSN: 0028-0836

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Citations: 1

Journal article

Fargette N, Lavraud B, Rouillard AP, Reville V, Bale SD, Kasper Jet al., 2022,

The preferential orientation of magnetic switchbacks and its implications for solar magnetic flux transport

, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 663, ISSN: 0004-6361

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Citations: 21

Journal article

Kilpua EKJ, Good SW, Ala-Lahti M, Osmane A, Pal S, Soljento JE, Zhao LL, Bale Set al., 2022,

Structure and fluctuations of a slow ICME sheath observed at 0.5 au by the Parker Solar Probe

, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 663, ISSN: 0004-6361

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Citations: 9

Journal article

Davies EE, Winslow RM, Scolini C, Forsyth RJ, Moestl C, Lugaz N, Galvin ABet al., 2022,

Multi-spacecraft Observations of the Evolution of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections between 0.3 and 2.2 au: Conjunctions with the Juno Spacecraft

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 933, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 4

Journal article

Trotta D, Pecora F, Settino A, Perrone D, Hietala H, Horbury T, Matthaeus W, Burgess D, Servidio S, Valentini Fet al., 2022,

On the Transmission of Turbulent Structures across the Earth's Bow Shock

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 933, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 7

Journal article

Tsui EYL, Toumi R, 2022,

Pacific subsurface temperature as a long‐range indicator of El Niño, regional precipitation, and fire

, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 148, Pages: 2102-2117, ISSN: 0035-9009

The SubNiño4 index based on the subsurface potential temperature around the thermocline beneath the west Pacific warm pool, the Niño 4 region, is examined as a long-range indicator of the surface El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO-driven atmospheric response. The SubNiño4 index captures the evolution of subsurface ocean heat content between the El Niño and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle, allowing it to serve as a long-range indicator of surface ENSO and hence also many ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies. The SubNiño4 index has more temporally stable correlations with Niño 3.4 than the widely used western equatorial Pacific warm-water volume indicator. For a lead time of the order of 12 months, Niño 3.4 correlations afforded by the lead observed SubNiño4 index become similar to and can exceed those produced by typical dynamical ENSO predictions. The value and viability of the SubNiño4 index as a simple statistical long-range indicator of ENSO-driven atmospheric response is shown for regional precipitation anomalies throughout the Tropics and fires in Continental and Maritime Southeast Asia.

Journal article

Gangopadhyay A, Seshadri AK, Sparks NJ, Toumi Ret al., 2022,

The role of wind-solar hybrid plants in mitigating renewable energy-droughts

, Renewable Energy, Vol: 194, Pages: 926-937, ISSN: 0960-1481

Increasing the share of weather-dependent renewables in the electricity grid is essential to deeply decarbonize the electricity system. Wind and solar “droughts” or low generation days can severely impact grid stability in a renewable-rich grid. This paper analyzes for the first time wind, solar, and hybrid energy-droughts in India using a stochastic weather generator. Available literature analyze the observational data that is of limited duration (30–40 years). Therefore, discussion of low-probability high-impact renewable energy-droughts that have long return periods (in the range of 30 years) is limited in the literature. The present study seeks to address this research gap by exploring the risk of wind, solar, and wind-solar powered energy-droughts based on simulated long time series (5000 years). It is found that the weather generator captures mean, seasonality, and correlation between wind speed and solar irradiance and is therefore used to estimate return periods of extreme wind and solar-droughts. Our analysis shows that wind-droughts are more intense than solar-droughts in India. We examine the role that wind-solar hybridization can play in offsetting low wind energy episodes. The benefits of hybridization are regionally dependent. In South India, hybrid plants have advantages over either wind or solar plants alone. In comparison, for Rajasthan, the benefits of hybridization are limited. When one of the regions (South India or Rajasthan) has a renewable drought, the other region has only a 10% probability of having a similar drought. Our findings highlight the need for having robust inter-regional grid connections to mitigate regional level renewable droughts.

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Journal article

Gryspeerdt E, McCoy DT, Crosbie E, Moore RH, Nott GJ, Painemal D, Small-Griswold J, Sorooshian A, Ziemba Let al., 2022,

The impact of sampling strategy on the cloud droplet number concentration estimated from satellite data

, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol: 15, Pages: 3875-3892, ISSN: 1867-1381

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is of central importance to observation-based estimates of aerosol indirect effects, being used to quantify both the cloud sensitivity to aerosol and the base state of the cloud. However, the derivation of Nd from satellite data depends on a number of assumptions about the cloud and the accuracy of the retrievals of the cloud properties from which it is derived, making it prone to systematic biases.A number of sampling strategies have been proposed to address these biases by selecting the most accurate Nd retrievals in the satellite data. This work compares the impact of these strategies on the accuracy of the satellite retrieved Nd, using a selection of in situ measurements. In stratocumulus regions, the MODIS Nd retrieval is able to achieve a high precision (r2 of 0.5–0.8). This is lower in other cloud regimes but can be increased by appropriate sampling choices. Although the Nd sampling can have significant effects on the Nd climatology, it produces only a 20 % variation in the implied radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions, with the choice of aerosol proxy driving the overall uncertainty. The results are summarised into recommendations for using MODIS Nd products and appropriate sampling.

Journal article

McManus MD, Verniero J, Bale SD, Bowen TA, Larson DE, Kasper JC, Livi R, Matteini L, Rahmati A, Romeo O, Whittlesey P, Woolley Tet al., 2022,

Density and Velocity Fluctuations of Alpha Particles in Magnetic Switchbacks

, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 933, ISSN: 0004-637X

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Citations: 15

Journal article

Thaller SA, Andersson L, Schwartz SJ, Mazelle C, Fowler C, Goodrich K, Newman D, Halekas J, Pilinski MD, Pollard Met al., 2022,

Bipolar Electric Field Pulses in the Martian Magnetosheath and Solar Wind; Their Implication and Impact Accessed by System Scale Size

, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 127, ISSN: 2169-9380

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Journal article

Smith AW, Forsyth C, Rae IJ, Garton TM, Jackman CM, Bakrania M, Shore RM, Richardson GS, Beggan CD, Heyns MJ, Eastwood JP, Thomson AWP, Johnson JMet al., 2022,

On the considerations of using near real time data for space weather hazard forecasting

, Space Weather, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1542-7390

Space weather represents a severe threat to ground-based infrastructure, satellites and communications. Accurately forecasting when such threats are likely (e.g., when we may see large induced currents) will help to mitigate the societal and financial costs. In recent years computational models have been created that can forecast hazardous intervals, however they generally use post-processed “science” solar wind data from upstream of the Earth. In this work we investigate the quality and continuity of the data that are available in Near-Real-Time (NRT) from the Advanced Composition Explorer and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. In general, the data available in NRT corresponds well with post-processed data, however there are three main areas of concern: greater short-term variability in the NRT data, occasional anomalous values and frequent data gaps. Some space weather models are able to compensate for these issues if they are also present in the data used to fit (or train) the model, while others will require extra checks to be implemented in order to produce high quality forecasts. We find that the DSCOVR NRT data are generally more continuous, though they have been available for small fraction of a solar cycle and therefore DSCOVR has experienced a limited range of solar wind conditions. We find that short gaps are the most common, and are most frequently found in the plasma data. To maximize forecast availability we suggest the implementation of limited interpolation if possible, for example, for gaps of 5 min or less, which could increase the fraction of valid input data considerably.

Journal article

Sroka S, Czaja A, Chakravorty S, 2022,

Assessing the importance of mesoscale sea-surface temperature variations for surface turbulent cooling of the Kuroshio Extension in wintertime

, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 148, Pages: 2742-2754, ISSN: 0035-9009

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Citations: 4

Journal article

Howes GG, Verniero JL, Larson DE, Bale SD, Kasper JC, Goetz K, Klein KG, Whittlesey PL, Livi R, Rahmati A, Chen CHK, Wilson LB, Alterman BL, Wicks RTet al., 2022,

Revolutionizing Our Understanding of Particle Energization in Space Plasmas Using On-Board Wave-Particle Correlator Instrumentation

, FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2296-987X

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Citations: 1

Conference paper

Glassmeier F, Hoffmann F, Feingold G, Gryspeerdt E, van Hooft A, Yamaguchi T, Johnson JS, Carslaw KSet al., 2022,

Gaussian-process emulation for integrating data-driven aerosol-cloud physics from simulation, satellite, and ground-based data

<jats:p>&lt;p&gt;Data-driven quantification and parameterization of cloud physics in general, and of aerosol-cloud interactions in particular, rely on input data from observations or detailed simulations. These data sources have complementary limitations in terms of their spatial and temporal coverage and resolution; simulation data has the advantage of readily providing causality but cannot represent the full process complexity. In order to base data-driven approaches on comprehensive information, we therefore need ways to integrate different data sources.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We discuss how the classical statistical technique of Gaussian-process emulation can be combined with specifically initialized ensembles of detailed cloud simulations (large-eddy simulations, LES) to provide a framework for evaluating data-driven descriptions of cloud characteristics and processes across different data sources. We specifically illustrate this approach for integrating LES and satellite data of aerosol-cloud interactions in subtropical stratocumulus cloud decks. We furthermore explore the extension of our framework to ground-based observations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Glassmeier, F., F. Hoffmann, J. S. Johnson, T. Yamaguchi, K. S. Carslaw and G. Feingold (2019): &amp;#8220;An emulator approach to stratocumulus susceptibility&amp;#8221;, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10191- 10203, doi: 10.5194/acp-19-10191-2019&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Hoffmann, F., F. Glassmeier, T. Yamaguchi and G. Feingold (2020)

Journal article

Vasko IY, Mozer FS, Bale SD, Artemyev Aet al., 2022,

Ion-Acoustic Waves in a Quasi-Perpendicular Earth's Bow Shock

, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 49, ISSN: 0094-8276

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Citations: 23

Journal article

Breul P, Ceppi P, Shepherd TG, 2022,

Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere

, Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol: 3, Pages: 645-658, ISSN: 2698-4016

Climate models show a wide range of southern hemispheric jet responses to greenhouse gas forcing. One approach to constrain the future jet response is by utilising the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) which links the forced response to internal variability timescales, with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) the most dominant mode of variability of the southern hemispheric jet. We show that interannual stratospheric variability approximately doubles the SAM timescale during austral summer in both re-analysis data and models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). Using a simple barotropic model, we demonstrate how the enhanced SAM timescale subsequently leads to an overestimate of the forced jet response based on the FDT, and we introduce a method to correct for the stratospheric influence. This result helps to resolve a previously identified discrepancy between the seasonality of jet response and the internal variability timescale. However, even after accounting for this influence, the SAM timescale cannot explain inter-model differences in the forced jet shift across CMIP models during austral summer.

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