It pays to be prepared:

What can a global pandemic teach us about the climate crisis? Since COVID-19 shut down life in the UK as we know it, there has been much discussion about the similarities between the coronavirus health crisis, and the more chronic climate change challenge, and what lessons can be learned that put us in a better position to tackle climate change in the future.

It will be some time before the full impact of coronavirus, and the global response to it, can be analysed in full. Yet, without doubt, the devastating impact of the pandemic has tragically exposed our society’s lack of preparedness to external shocks, and underlined why it is so important for governments to build resilient societies.

Nowhere is this more important than in relation to our changing climate. Even if the world miraculously stops all carbon emissions tomorrow, the planet will still face significant climate disruption. While countries must accelerate action to cut emissions and avoid some of the worse impacts of climate change, they must also adapt to, and prepare for, a more unpredictable climate.

In this feature, climate experts share their thoughts on how the world can learn from, and build on, the response to the coronavirus crisis to better prepare for climate change.

“Climate change is an inexorable problem, and the stakes are high. It demands a real and dramatic response that will require both system shifts and exceptional co-operation,” says Professor David Nabarro, Co-Director of Imperial’s Institute of Global Health Innovation and Special Envoy to the World Health Organisation on COVID-19.

“We know pandemics are going to happen and we know there are going to be nastier weather patterns as a result of climate change. With both, we have to start from the notion of inevitability, and establish a set of ground rules for how we deal with these phenomena.”

According to Professor Nabarro, the response to the pandemic can inform how to build resilience to climate change:

1.       Involve all of society

“Government and society must come together, so that people understand the issue and own the response, rather than having things imposed on them,” says Professor Nabarro. “Good leadership is essential, but everyone must be involved. The key thing is being consistent and inspiring collective action and cooperation.

“In relation to climate change, this means listening to and learning from the people who are already experiencing the effects of the changing climate and extreme weather. Policymakers have to build a powerful, genuine listening mechanism to ensure they hear from those who have first-hand knowledge of the issues caused by climate change, and can work together to develop appropriate responses.”

2.       Take effective local action

“Of course, we can’t deal with climate change without global action, but climate impacts are always felt locally and have a direct impact on people where they live. Well-organised, data-driven local action is immensely powerful,” says Professor Nabarro. “Local-level analysis that connects authorities, businesses, community organisations and religious groups will help provide a full picture of what vulnerabilities an area faces, and how coordinated local action can build resilient livelihoods.”

 3.       Establish good defences

“It is essential to have the capacity to defend against threats. In the case of COVID-19, that means being able to defend against future spikes of the virus; for climate change, it means mean having effective early warning systems in place for extreme weather events,” says Professor Nabarro .

“And, following the logic above, these defense mechanisms must be people-centred, based on science and experience, and involve the whole of government and society.”

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the average temperature rise this century to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and to pursue efforts to keep it at 1.5°C". However, even if we achieve this, a 1.5°C average global temperature rise comes with significant climate-related risks.

While the UK government has set an ambitious target to cut emissions to net zero by 2050, it has fallen behind when it comes to preparing for and adapting to inevitable climate impacts. Climate change will increasingly affect all of society and the environment: soils, water, food supply, health, infrastructure, businesses, the economy, and wildlife. Yet across all of these areas, more needs to be done to actively manage the risks that are now inevitable in the next 30 years, as well as thinking about the long term.

According to Kathryn Brown, Honorary Research Fellow at the Grantham Institute and Head of Adaptation at the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), the level of risk long-term varies hugely depending on how quickly and decisively the world acts to cut carbon emissions and limit temperature rise. “But, even in the best-case scenario, there remains a high level of risk,” she says. “The country is not prepared for the impacts of a 2°C rise in global temperatures, let alone more extreme levels of warming above 3°C, which are well within the likely range based on current policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

On the basis of current efforts to cut emissions, the world’s temperature could increase by 2.7 to 3.1°C by 2100.

“Planning for climate risk is the same as planning for any other risk; we have to think about the full range of possibilities – COVID-19 has taught us that in spades,” says Ms Brown. “In doing so, we are helping to see how the important things that people care about can be protected and sustained in a range of futures, whether that is nature, business sustainability, or safe and reliable infrastructure .”

See Ms Brown’s dream 10-point plan for adapting to the effects of climate change

According to Emma Howard Boyd, Chair of the Environment Agency, one of the greatest climate-related threats in the UK is related to water – whether too much of it in the form of severe flooding, too little leading to prolonged droughts, or poor water quality driven by low river levels or increased temperatures.

“The world is currently managing the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, but that doesn’t stop rain from falling or the sea level from rising. February 2020 was England’s wettest ever and it was the UK’s fifth wettest winter on record,” says Ms Howard Boyd .

Fortunately, risk management in this area is fairly well-developed compared with other sectors. Earlier this year, the Environment Agency published its Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy, which sets out practical measures to build a nation ready for, and resilient to, flooding and coastal change.

For every household flooded, 16 other people are affected by disrupted services, so the strategy is not just about protecting people’s lives and their property. It also focuses on ensuring services and infrastructure are resilient, covering everything from water supply, sewage networks and energy supplies, to local schools and hospitals.

“As everyone looks to rebuild and renew after the coronavirus pandemic, this strategy will help to ensure a clean, green recovery with sustainability and natural processes at its heart,” says Ms Howard Boyd. “The success of it will depend on local communities, national government and the private sector listening, collaborating and taking action together to build up the resilience of millions of properties.

“Resilience isn’t only about risk avoidance; there’s a world of social and economic opportunities in helping communities to protect against, manage, and build back better following the physical impacts of climate change.”

The Paris Agreement established the commitments of governments to enhance climate change education, training, public awareness and access to information. However, there has been very little coordinated investment in providing information services to the public on climate change adaptation. A recent study by the CCC found that, while awareness of climate risk is growing, when it comes to understanding the effectiveness of different adaptation measures, there remains a gap. 

According to Ms Brown, providing the public with information on what adaptation looks like could have real benefits in reducing the negative impacts of climate change. “It falls on government to fill the information gap and provide details on the availability and effectiveness of different adaptation measures,” she says. “Whether we like it or not, the climate is changing and we are going to have to adapt. We either do it by planning properly, which will be cheaper, or we do it reactively, which is more expensive and will lead to unnecessary and, in some cases, irreversible impacts - including deaths or loss of habitats.”

Ms Howard Boyd agrees: “Any investment made in achieving net-zero emission must be seen through the lens of a changing climate. Otherwise, those assets could wash away in a flood, or melt in a heatwave”.

Professor Nabarro highlights that, while distinct crises, both COVID-19 and the climate emergency are truly global problems. National borders do not stop viruses, or carbon dioxide emissions. They also both threaten to impact our poorest communities disproportionately, and both demand a coordinated international response.

“When the COVID-19 virus spread across the world in the space of a few weeks, it gave us proof, if one was ever needed, of how tightly interconnected we all are,” he says. “Not only are our globalised economies interdependent, but we ourselves are one with the environment around us, and with one another. However, countries are not equally equipped to deal with these problems. It would be catastrophic for the world if differences between nations blunt the collective response to these crises.”

Recent research led by Imperial shows that the world could be put on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement if just a fraction of COVID-19 funding (estimated on 16 October 2020 at $12 trillion USD) is invested in a ‘climate-positive’ recovery.  Furthermore, climate-positive recovery measures could play an important role in making a country’s economy more resilient to future shocks.

The UK government, as hosts of the delayed UN Climate Summit (COP26) in November 2021, has an opportunity to play a leading role in driving global efforts to build resilience to climate impacts. Needless to say, this must go hand in hand with pushing a green recovery to the COVID-19 crisis.

“The world needs the multilateral system like never before; our world is tightly interconnected: we are only as strong as the weakest of us,” concludes Professor Nabarro.

This article was supported by research from Rosanna Hine.

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