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Journal articleNagel G, Chen J, Jaensch A, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project
, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 154, Pages: 1900-1910, ISSN: 0020-7136Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w ) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5 , NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 , 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 , 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3w . We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5 , NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.
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Journal articleGriffiths A, Lambelet M, Crocket K, et al., 2024,
Neodymium isotope composition and rare earth element distribution of East Antarctic continental shelf and deep waters
, Chemical Geology, Vol: 653, ISSN: 0009-2541Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) play key roles in the Earth's climate system. Both water masses form critical components of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Meridional Overturning Circulation and therefore directly influence the large-scale redistribution of heat, nutrients and carbon. Reconstruction of past CDW transport and AABW production and export has been a key target in palaeoceanography. One promising proxy to achieve this has been the neodymium (Nd) isotope composition of seawater. The biogeochemical processes controlling Nd in the ocean, however, remain underconstrained, and modern observations of Nd isotopes in the Southern Ocean are still geographically limited.To overcome this limitation, 61 seawater samples were collected for Nd isotope and rare earth element (REE) analysis at nine stations along the Wilkes Land continental margin and in the Australian-Antarctic Basin (65°S 125°E) near East Antarctica. The results show that the different water masses have the following Nd isotope characteristics: Antarctic Surface Water (AASW), εNd = −9.0 ± 1.0 (2SD; n = 22); Modified CDW (MCDW), εNd = −8.8 ± 0.8 (2SD; n = 22); AABW, εNd = −8.3 ± 0.5 (2SD; n = 17).There is no evidence of continental REE inputs to surface waters on the Wilkes Land margin. Observed zonal variability of Nd isotope composition in AASW can be attributed to seasonal competition between the poleward flow of warm AASW from the AAG and the westward export of cold surface shelf waters by the Antarctic Slope Current.In terms of deep and bottom waters, mixing of upwelled CDW with AASW and AABW exclusively controls the Nd isotope composition of MCDW, with no indication of boundary processes modifying the Nd isotope composition of MCDW as it encroaches the shelf or slope. The regional Nd isotope signature for AABW is intermediate between published data for the Atlantic sector AABW (εNd
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Journal articleHan W, Zhang J, Xu Z, et al., 2024,
Could the association between ozone and arterial stiffness be modified by fish oil supplementation?
, Environmental Research, Vol: 249, ISSN: 0013-9351BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness (AS) is an important predicting factor for cardiovascular disease. However, no epidemiological studies have ever explored the mediating role of biomarkers in the association between ozone and AS, nor weather fish oil modified such association. METHODS: Study participants were drawn from the UK biobank, and a total of 95,699 middle-aged and older adults were included in this study. Ozone was obtained from Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model matched to residential addresses, fish oil from self-reported intake, and arterial stiffness was based on device measurements. First, we applied a double robust approach to explore the association between ozone or fish oil intake and arterial stiffness, adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and regional levels. Then, how triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (Apo B)/apolipoprotein A (ApoA) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C) mediate the relationship between ozone and AS. Last, the modifying role of fish oil was further explored by stratified analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 55 years; annual average ozone exposure was associated with ASI (beta:0.189 [95%CI: 0.146 to 0.233], P < 0.001), and compared to participants who did not consume fish oil, fish oil users had a lower ASI (beta: 0.061 [95%CI: -0.111 to -0.010], P = 0.016). The relationship between ozone exposure and AS was mediated by triglycerides, ApoB/ApoA, and Non-HDL-C with mediation proportions ranging from 10.90% to 18.30%. Stratified analysis showed lower estimates on the ozone-AS relationship in fish oil users (P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: Ozone exposure was associated with higher levels of arterial stiffness, in contrast to fish oil consumption, which showed a protective association. The association between ozone exposure and arterial stiffness was partially mediated by some biomarkers. In the general population, fish oil consumption might provide prote
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Journal articleHu S, Shu S, Chen Z, et al., 2024,
Sustainable impact analysis of freight pooling strategies on city crowdsourcing logistics platform
, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol: 130, ISSN: 1361-9209This study investigates the effects of freight pooling strategies on urban crowdsourcing logistics, focusing on economic, social, and environmental outcomes. Utilising a mixed-integer linear programming model with an adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm, our goal is to optimise the cost-efficiency of the freight pooling system. Real-world delivery and driver trajectory data from a major Chinese crowdsourcing logistics platform, along with high-resolution vehicle telematics data, validate our model in five scenarios, each defined by distinct cost coefficients reflecting diverse stakeholder priorities. Results show potential for up to a 21.3% reduction in carbon emissions, a 28.3% decrease in truck activity spatial coverage, and a 7.6% increase in available drivers. However, deadheading trips, due to order consolidation into fewer vehicles without an increase in overall demand, could offset maximum carbon reduction benefits by 16.4%. Other effects on customers’ and drivers’ welfare are explored for a comprehensive quantitative assessment of freight pooling strategies’ sustainability benefits.
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Journal articleLewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Mills M, et al., 2024,
Comparison of carbon management and emissions of universities that did and did not adopt voluntary carbon offsets
, Climate Policy, Vol: 24, Pages: 706-722, ISSN: 1469-3062The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, remove carbon from the atmosphere and stabilize natural carbon sinks has led to the development of many carbon management measures, increasingly including voluntary carbon offsets (VCOs). We studied carbon management in universities, institutions with large carbon footprints and considerable influence in climate science and policy fora. However, concerns that VCOs may deter adopters (including universities) from adopting other carbon reduction measures and limit emissions reductions, for example, through moral hazard, have been raised but understudied. We compared the carbon management characteristics (priorities, policies, practices and emissions) of universities that did and did not adopt VCOs. We found adopters measured carbon emissions for longer, and had set targets to reach net zero earlier than had non-adopters. Adopters of VCOs also undertook more carbon management practices in both 2010 and 2020 than non-adopters. We also found that both adopters and non-adopters significantly increased their carbon management practices over the decade studied, but with no difference between groups. Gross CO2 emissions were reduced significantly over time by adopters of VCOs but not by non-adopters, whereas carbon intensity and percentage annual emissions reductions did not relate to adoption status. Consequently, our study showed no indication of mitigation deterrence due to adoption of VCOs at the universities studied. Rather, greater emissions reductions correlated with earlier net zero target dates, and a higher number of policies and carbon management practices. However, our study was constrained to universities that were affiliated with a national environmental network, so research beyond these organizations, and with individuals, would be useful. The survey was voluntary, exposing the study to potential self-selection bias so the findings may not be generalized beyond the study group. Finally, we found the carbon ac
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Journal articleSparks N, Toumi R, 2024,
The Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) Dataset
, Scientific Data -
Journal articleMarkonis Y, Vargas Godoy MR, Pradhan RK, et al., 2024,
Spatial partitioning of terrestrial precipitation reveals varying dataset agreement across different environments
, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 5<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The study of the water cycle at planetary scale is crucial for our understanding of large-scale climatic processes. However, very little is known about how terrestrial precipitation is distributed across different environments. In this study, we address this gap by employing a 17-dataset ensemble to provide, for the first time, precipitation estimates over a suite of land cover types, biomes, elevation zones, and precipitation intensity classes. We estimate annual terrestrial precipitation at approximately 114,000 ± 9400 km<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>, with about 70% falling over tropical, subtropical and temperate regions. Our results highlight substantial inconsistencies, mainly, over the arid and the mountainous areas. To quantify the overall discrepancies, we utilize the concept of dataset agreement and then explore the pairwise relationships among the datasets in terms of “genealogy”, concurrency, and distance. The resulting uncertainty-based partitioning demonstrates how precipitation is distributed over a wide range of environments and improves our understanding on how their conditions influence observational fidelity.</jats:p>
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Journal articleKadelbach P, Weinmayr G, Chen J, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality - results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.
, Environ ResDespite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289 564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5μg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5×10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10μg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10μg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.
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Journal articleBlackford K, Kasoar M, Burton C, et al., 2024,
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 17, Pages: 3063-3079, ISSN: 1991-959XPeat fires in the northern high latitudes have the potential to burn vast amounts of carbon-rich organic soil, releasing large quantities of long-term stored carbon to the atmosphere. Due to anthropogenic activities and climate change, peat fires are increasing in frequency and intensity across the high latitudes. However, at present they are not explicitly included in most fire models. Here we detail the development of INFERNO-peat, the first parameterization of peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) fire model. INFERNO-peat utilizes knowledge from lab and field-based studies on peat fire ignition and spread to be able to model peat burnt area, burn depth, and carbon emissions, based on data of the moisture content, inorganic content, bulk density, soil temperature, and water table depth of peat. INFERNO-peat improves the representation of burnt area in the high latitudes, with peat fires simulating on average an additional 0.305×106 km2 of burn area each year, emitting 224.10 Tg of carbon. Compared to Global Fire Emissions Database version 5 (GFED5), INFERNO-peat captures ∼ 20 % more burnt area, whereas INFERNO underestimated burning by 50 %. Additionally, INFERNO-peat substantially improves the representation of interannual variability in burnt area and subsequent carbon emissions across the high latitudes. The coefficient of variation in carbon emissions is increased from 0.071 in INFERNO to 0.127 in INFERNO-peat, an almost 80 % increase. Therefore, explicitly modelling peat fires shows a substantial improvement in the fire modelling capabilities of JULES-INFERNO, highlighting the importance of representing peatland systems in fire models.
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Journal articleHazzard JAN, Richards FD, 2024,
Antarctic Geothermal Heat Flow, Crustal Conductivity and Heat Production Inferred From Seismological Data
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276Geothermal heat flow is a key parameter in governing ice dynamics, via its influence on basal melt and sliding, englacial rheology, and erosion. It is expected to exhibit significant lateral variability across Antarctica. Despite this, surface heat flow derived from Earth's interior remains one of the most poorly constrained parameters controlling ice sheet evolution. To obtain a continent-wide map of Antarctic heat supply at regional-scale resolution, we estimate upper mantle thermomechanical structure directly from VS. Until now, direct inferences of Antarctic heat supply have assumed constant crustal composition. Here, we explore a range of crustal conductivity and radiogenic heat production values by fitting thermodynamically self-consistent geotherms to their seismically inferred counterparts. Independent estimates of crustal conductivity derived from VP are integrated to break an observed trade-off between crustal parameters, allowing us to infer Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its associated uncertainty.
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