Decarbonisation Strategy and Policy
Strategy development for net-zero GHG emissions in industrial clusters using an agent-based model
Decarbonization of industrial emissions presents a significant challenge to global net zero ambitions, with direct and indirect emissions from industry accounting for more than one-third of global GHG emissions. Much can be gained by harmonizing efforts and implementing a cluster approach which allows for leveraging economies of scale to reduce cost as well as risk of decarbonization technologies. This project focuses on designing an agent-based model to represent the heterogeneous interests, behaviours and decision-space of individual stakeholders and explore the implications of low-carbon technology deployment in an industrial cluster, using Humber cluster as a case study.
Supervisors:
- Dr Nixon Sunny, Centre for Environmental Policy
- Dr Koen H van Dam, Chemical Engineering
The Role of Private Capital and Deep Uncertainty in GHG Removal Sector Development in the US
Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) is a critical component in published net zero pathways. However, existing GGR technologies such as direct air capture (DAC) and bioenergy with carbon capture (BECCS) are relatively nascent and costly compared to other mitigation measures. This research explores the public policy support and private capital investment required for GGR technology deployment in the US. Combining an evaluation of GGR business model profitability in several possible futures and interviews with early-stage technology investors, the research aims to develop an understanding of GGR viability and desirability to ultimately address the bridge to realizing GGR sector scale-up in the US.
Supervisors:
- Dr Mark H W Workman, Energy Futures Lab
- Dr Aoife Brophy, Departmental Research Lecturer in Innovation and Enterprise at University of Oxford
UK’s Target to Decarbonise the Power System by 2035 – Building a Holistic Delivery Assessment Framework & Identifying Opportunities to Accelerate
This research project uses a Grounded Theory approach to propose a novel framework for codifying what needs to be delivered to meet the UK's 2035 Power System Decarbonisation Target. The research uses this framework to further analyse the corpus of literature available on each segment as well as semi-structured interviews with stakeholders across the sector to identify the key 'pinch points' that are currently acting as blockers to the delivery of this target. The assessment uses a qualitative and visual Red-Amber-Green score to highlighting key segments for further research and areas to focus policy efforts to help accelerate the transition and meet this ambitious target.
Supervisors:
- Dr Aidan Rhodes, Energy Futures Lab
- James Spooner, RSF Capital Partners (external)
- Michael Roussos, RSF Capital Partners (external)
The Role of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) and Industrial Integration in meeting Net Zero
Billions of tonnes of carbon removals are predicted to be required worldwide to meet the Paris Agreement's targets, with nearly 90 million tones of removals required yearly by 2050 to enable the UK's trajectory to Net Zero. Despite a high reliance on these technologies in energy systems modelling scenarios, the sector is struggling to make convincing progress. This work uses the UK TIMES model to analyse the extent to which different NETs technologies will support Net Zero. It also considers the potential to use industrial waste heat in solid-sorbent Direct Air Capture systems to reduce operating costs, the wider economic impacts of NETs, and how policy mechanisms can aid NETs expansion.
Supervisors:
- Professor Adam Hawkes, Chemical Engineering
- Dr Semra Bakkaloglu, Chemical Engineering
Using Real Options Analysis and Design Flexibility to Support Net-Zero Investment Decisions
In the world's hardest to abate sectors a large funding gap for decarbonization in line with Net-Zero by 2050 has emerged. Uncertainty in commodity volatility, technology cost, and regulatory frameworks make deterministic NPV valuation ill-equipped to value Net-Zero investments. Further, emission penalty expectations have caused a diverging cost of capital between heavy and light emitters globally. In the face of uncertainty, implementing system flexibility with real options using decision rules and simulation has the potential to create a more accurate estimate for least cost pathways. Using JLR as a case study, a strategy for valuing the least cost decarbonization pathway is presented.
Supervisors:
- Dr Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Computational Aided Engineering at the Dyson School of Design Engineering
- Dr Joseph Cherian, Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Practice Professor of Finance, Asia School of Business; Visiting Practice Professor of Finance, Cornell University at the Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management
Exploitation of UK Industrial Demand to Reduce the Cost of Green Hydrogen Produced via Offshore Wind Energy
Green hydrogen offers an attractive route to bridging the gap between a rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity in the UK and the nation's hard-to-abate industrial sector, thus driving industrial decarbonisation. However, the cost of green hydrogen is too elevated to compete with traditional fuels. The research project considers recent techno-economic analyses and observed learning rates to present an optimised mix of policy interventions for achieving cost competitiveness of green hydrogen. The aim is to exploit industrial demand from 2025 through 2050 with the view of withdrawing policy once the market takes over, thus stimulating cross-sector adoption.
Supervisors:
- Dr Gbemi Oluleye, Centre for Environmental Policy
The value of Green Hydrogen for Hard-to-Decarbonize Consumers
Despite the lack of consensus as regards to the degree of implication of Green Hydrogen as an energy vector for the energy transition towards net zero emissions, its key role for hard-to-decarbonize sectors cannot be denied. However, the current lack of visibility on a fair price of hydrogen is a strong barrier to Green Hydrogen development. The aim of this project is to bring visibility on the Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for Green Hydrogen for 6 hard-to-decarbonize sectors. As the European hydrogen market is expected to develop through long term offtake agreements, "fair" prices for these agreements, based on the calculated historical daily WTP for each sector, were estimated.
Supervisors:
- Dr Iain Staffell, Centre for Environmental Policy
- Dr Oliver Schmidt, Centre for Environmental Policy
Accelerating The Uptake of Green Gas (Biomethane) and Hydrogen for Clean Heating in The UK Chemicals Industry
This project investigates the economic aspect of transition towards cleaner fuel in the UK chemicals industry. The UK chemicals industry need to switch away from natural gas and start adopting alternative fuel to support the UK ambitions in achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Market potential assessment is used to assess green gas biomethane, green hydrogen, and blue hydrogen in order to reach 100% switch from natural gas. Singular policies and combined policies are modelled to find the most cost-effective scenarios for both the government and the industry.
Supervisors:
- Dr Gbemi Oluleye, Centre for Environmental Policy