COVID-19 reports

Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic. This page provides all publicly published online reports by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.

COVID-19 Reports

Report 51: 14 February 2022

Report 51: Valuing lives, education and the economy in an epidemic: Societal benefit of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccinations in Indonesia (published in Vaccine 10-03-2023)

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Report 50: 22 December 2021

Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

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Report 49: 16 December 2021

Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England

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Report 48: 16 December 2021

The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

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Report 47: 26 November 2021

A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study

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Report 46: 6 October 2021

Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID‐19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals (published in Nature 10-04-2022)

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Report 45: 1 September 2021

Quantifying the economic response to Covid-19 mitigations and death rates (published in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 18-11-2022)

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Report 44: 20 May 2021

Recent trends in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in England

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Report 43: 24 March 2021

Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic (published in Nature Communications Medicine 10-02-2022)

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Report 42: 31 December 2020

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data (published in Nature 25-03-2021)

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Report 41: 22 December 2020

The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions (published in Science Translational Medicine 14-07-21)

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Report 40: 10 December 2020

Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England (published in Nature Computational Science 13-08-2021)

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COVID-19 Reports

Report 39: 01 December 2020

Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan

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Report 38: 27 November 2020

SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis (published in Clinical Infectious Diseases 09-02-2021)

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Report 37: 25 November 2020

Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility (published in Nature Scientific Reports 06-07-2021)

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Report 36: 16 November 2020

Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries (published in International Journal of Epidemiology 09-04-21)

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Report 35: 16 November 2020

How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (published in Nature Computational Science 28-04-2022)

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Report 34: 29 October 2020

COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio: Estimates from Seroprevalence

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Report 33: 25 September 2020

Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine (published in Vaccine 21-05-2021)

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Report 32: 17 September 2020

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States (published in Science 02-02-2021)

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Report 31: 15 September 2020

Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria (published in Nature Communications
22-04-21)

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Report 30: 2 July 2020

The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China (published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases 01- 2021)

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Report 29: 01 July 2020

The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study (published in BMC Health Services Research 23-09-2021)

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Report 28: 18 June 2020

Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020

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Links to older older reports

Report 27: 15 June 2020

Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic (published in BMC medicine 16-10-2020)

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Report 26: 8 June 2020

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission (published in Nature Communications 17-02-2021)

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Report 25: 29 May 2020

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions (published in BMC Medicine 09-10-2020)

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Report 24: 29 May 2020

Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK (published in Wellcome Open Research 17-07-2020)

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Report 23: 21 May 2020

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States (published in Nature comms 03-12-2020)

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Report 22: 12 May 2020

Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries

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Report 21: 8 May 2020

Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil

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Report 20: 4 May 2020

Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios

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Report 19: 1 May 2020

The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (published in Lancet Global health 13-07-20202)

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Report 18: 1 May 2020

The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa (published in Nature 07-08-2020)

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Report 17: 29 April 2020

Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study (published in Clinical Infectious Diseases 07-08-2020)

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Report 16: 23 April 2020

Role of Testing in COVID-19 control (published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases 18-08-2020)

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Links to older older reports

Report 15: 17 April 2020

Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic (published in Journal of medical care 21-01-2021)

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Report 14: 03 April 2020

Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective

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Report 13: 30 March 2020

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (published in Nature 08-06-2020)

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Report 12: 26 March 2020

The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression (published in Science 24-07-2020)

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Report 11: 24 March 2020

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment (published in Wellcome Open Research 28-04-2020)

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Report 10: 20 March 2020

Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020 (published in BMJ Open 04-01-2021)

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Report 9: 16 March 2020

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

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Report 8: 11 March 2020

Symptom progression of COVID-19

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Report 7: 9 March 2020

Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights (published in Journal of Travel Medicine 24-08-2020)

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Report 6: 21 February 2020

Relative sensitivity of international surveillance (Wellcome Open Research 13-09-2021)

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Report 5: 15 February 2020

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2

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Report 4: 10 February 2020

Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) (published in Lancet Infectious Diseases 30-03-2020)

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Links to older older reports

Report 3: 25 January 2020

Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV

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Report 2: 22 January 2020

Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

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Report 1: 17 January 2020

Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

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