Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleSilva L, Gogoi M, Lal Z, et al., 2026,
Antibiotic knowledge among ethnic minority groups in high-income countries: A mixed-methods systematic review.
, Public Health Pract (Oxf), Vol: 11OBJECTIVES: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global public health concern. Although low-income countries are disproportionately affected by AMR, certain underserved groups in high-income countries (HICs), such as migrants and ethnic minorities, disproportionately bear the burden of AMR. This may be driven by socio-cultural factors including differences in health literacy. This review aimed to investigate the level of antibiotic knowledge amongst different ethnic minority groups in HICs. STUDY DESIGN: This was a mixed-methods systematic literature review. METHODS: We searched four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, CINAHL) to May 5, 2023, for primary studies on knowledge of antibiotics in different ethnic groups in HICs. We included studies in English using qualitative, quantitative and/or mixed-methods approaches and reporting on antibiotic knowledge by ethnicity. We used the convergent integrated approach for data synthesis and the Mixed-Methods Appraisal tool for quality assessment. RESULTS: 3935 articles were screened and 24 studies (17 quantitative, 5 qualitative, and 2 mixed-methods) were included, comprising 52778 participants from 8 countries (USA, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands, Greece, Sweden, Germany). Overall, participants from ethnic minority groups were able to identify common names of antibiotics and were aware of risks of antibiotics and side effects. However, participants thought antibiotics would treat viral-type illnesses. Ethnic minority groups generally had lower levels of knowledge compared to ethnic majority groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although ethnic minority communities possessed good levels of knowledge on certain aspects of antibiotics (e.g. being able to identify names of antibiotics), there were gaps in other areas (e.g. misperception that antibiotics are used for viral infections). The lower level of knowledge in ethnic minority groups compared to majority groups may be a contributing factor to health inequaliti
-
Journal articleKoemen S, Faria NR, Bastos LS, et al., 2026,
Fast and trustworthy nowcasting of dengue fever: a case study using attention-based probabilistic neural networks in São Paulo, Brazil
, Epidemics, Vol: 54, ISSN: 1755-4365Nowcasting methods are crucial in infectious disease surveillance, as reporting delays often lead to underestimation of recent incidence and can impair timely public health decision-making. Accurate real-time estimates of case counts are essential for resource allocation, policy responses, and communication with the public. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic neural network (PNN) architecture, named NowcastPNN, to estimate occurred-but-not-yet-reported cases of infectious diseases, demonstrated here using dengue fever incidence in São Paulo, Brazil. The proposed model combines statistical modelling of the true number of cases, assuming a Negative Binomial (NB) distribution, with recent advances in machine learning and deep learning, such as the attention mechanism. Uncertainty intervals are obtained by sampling from the predicted NB distribution and using Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout. Using proper scoring rules for the prediction intervals, NowcastPNN achieves nearly a 30% reduction in losses compared to the second-best model among other state-of-the-art approaches. While our model requires a large training dataset (equivalent to two to four years of incidence counts) to outperform benchmarks, it is computationally cheap and outperforms alternative methods even with significantly fewer observations as input. These features make the NowcastPNN model a promising tool for nowcasting in epidemiological surveillance of arboviral threats and other domains involving right-truncated data.
-
Journal articleHowes A, Stringer A, Flaxman SR, et al., 2026,
Fast approximate Bayesian inference of HIV indicators using PCA adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature
, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol: 618, ISSN: 0022-5193Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment coverage are jointly modelled using both household survey data and routinely reported health system data. The model is provided as a tool for countries to input their data to and generate estimates with during a yearly process supported by UNAIDS. Previously, inference has been conducted using empirical Bayes and a Gaussian approximation, implemented via the TMB R package. We propose a new inference method based on an extension of adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature to deal with more than 20 hyperparameters. Using data from Malawi, our method improves the accuracy of inferences for model parameters, while being substantially faster to run than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the No-U-Turn sampler. Our implementation leverages the existing TMB C++ template for the model’s log-posterior, and is compatible with any model with such a template.
-
Journal articleEbi KL, Haines A, Andrade RFS, et al., 2026,
Correction to: The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: transdisciplinary practical guidance (Climatic Change, (2025), 178, 8, (143), 10.1007/s10584-025-03976-7)
, Climatic Change, Vol: 179, ISSN: 0165-0009The original article has been corrected. In this article Kathryn Bowen at affiliation ‘Melbourne Climate Futures; and Environment, Climate, and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia’ was missing from the author list. The section “Conflicts of Interest” was also missing and should have read: “Select authors declare potential interests arising from funding from Wellcome, NIH, NIHR, Oak Foundation, CDC, CSTE, WHO, Green Climate Fund, World Bank, Asia Development Bank, CIHR, SSHRC, NSF, NovoNordisc (sponsored travel), and honoraria for academic engagement from US universities. One author is a Wellcome employee. One author (KLE) is a Deputy Editor for Climatic Change.”
-
Journal articleGrégoire V, Zhu AW, Brown CM, et al., 2026,
Public reporting guidelines for outbreak data: Enabling accountability for effective outbreak response by developing standards for transparency and uniformity.
, Public Health, Vol: 251OBJECTIVES: There are few standards for what information about an infectious disease outbreak should be reported to the public and when. To address this problem, we undertook a consensus process to develop recommendations for what epidemiological information public health authorities should report to the public during an outbreak. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a Delphi study following the steps outlined in the ACcurate COnsensus Reporting Document (ACCORD) for health-related activities or research. METHODS: We assembled a steering committee of nine experts representing federal and state public health, academia, and international partners to develop a candidate list of reporting items. We then invited 45 experts, 35 of whom agreed to participate in a Delphi panel. Of those, 25 participated in voting in the first round, 25 in the second round, and 25 in the third round, demonstrating consistent engagement in the consensus-building process. The final stage of the Delphi process consisted of a hybrid consensus meeting to finalize the voting items. RESULTS: The Delphi process yielded nine core reporting items representing a minimum standard for public outbreak reporting: numbers of new confirmed cases, new hospital admissions, new deaths, cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative hospital admissions, and cumulative deaths, each reported weekly and at Administrative Level 1 (typically state or province), and stratified by sex, age group, and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: This minimum reporting standard creates a strong framework for uniform sharing of outbreak information and promotes consistency of data between jurisdictions, enabling effective response by promoting access to information about an unfolding epidemic.
-
Journal articleBerden J, Hanley-Cook GT, Chimera B, et al., 2026,
Synergies between food biodiversity, processing levels, and the EAT-Lancet diet for nutrient adequacy and environmental sustainability: a multiobjective optimization using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.
, Am J Clin Nutr, Vol: 123BACKGROUND: Diets have become increasingly monotonous and high in ultraprocessed foods (UPFs), contributing to poor health outcomes and environmental degradation. Although sustainable diets, food biodiversity, and food processing levels have each been linked to nutritional and environmental outcomes, their combined impact has not been assessed. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine whether food biodiversity, intakes of UPFs, and adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet can simultaneously optimize nutrient adequacy while reducing environmental impacts. METHODS: Using data from 368,733 adults in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, we assessed associations and interactions between dietary species richness (DSR) (disaggregated into DSRPlant and DSRAnimal), food processing levels (Nova categories; % g/d), and adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations [healthy reference diet (HRD) score; 0-140 points] with the Probability of Adequate Nutrient Intake Diet (PANDiet) score, dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe; kg CO2-eq/d), and land use (m2/d). Regression models subsequently informed multiobjective optimization to identify optimal dietary patterns balancing nutritional and environmental outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with observed diets, optimal diets showed a mean HRD score increase of 13.91 (95% confidence interval: 13.89, 13.93) points; DSRPlant increased by mean of 1.36 (1.35, 1.37) species, and a mean substitution of 12.44 (12.40, 12.49) percentage points of UPFs with unprocessed or minimally processed foods. Correspondingly, the mean PANDiet score increased by 4.12 (4.10, 4.14) percentage points, whereas GHGe and land use reduced by 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) kg CO2-eq/d and 1.43 (1.41, 1.45) m2/d, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Diets that adhere to the EAT-Lancet diet, are more biodiverse, and prioritize unprocessed and minimally processed foods over UPFs, have the potential to synergistically enhance nutrient adequacy while minimizing environmental impacts. T
-
Journal articleThompson RN, Bansal S, Clapham H, et al., 2026,
Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors.
, Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 293Early in an infectious disease outbreak, key policy questions include whether and how the outbreak can be brought under control. In the epidemiological modelling literature, analyses of outbreak controllability have often focused on metrics such as reproduction numbers (which quantify the number of infections generated by each infected individual). However, whether an outbreak can be controlled is a complex question, depending on both the precise definition of 'under control' used and numerous factors affecting decision-makers' ability to implement transmission-reducing measures. Here, based on discussions at the Isaac Newton Institute's 'Modelling and inference for pandemic preparedness' programme (5-30 August 2024), we describe a wide range of factors affecting outbreak controllability in practice. Programme participants came from institutions in ten countries, enabling discussions to reflect experiences of using models to inform policy in different settings. We divide the factors according to whether they relate predominantly to characteristics of the pathogen, host population or available interventions, and describe policy considerations when assessing whether an outbreak is controllable.
-
Journal articleSymons TL, Moran A, Balzarolo A, et al., 2026,
Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa.
, NatureThe implications of climate change for malaria eradication this century remain poorly resolved1,2. Many studies focus on parasite and vector ecology in isolation, neglecting the interactions between climate, malaria control and the socioeconomic environment, including disruption from extreme weather3,4. Here we integrate 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden and control, socioeconomic factors, and extreme weather. Using a geotemporal model linked to an ensemble of climate projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP 2-4.5) scenario5, we estimate the future impact of climate change on malaria burden in Africa, including both ecological and disruptive effects. Our findings indicate that climate change could lead to 123 million (projection range 49.5 million to 203 million) additional malaria cases and 532,000 (195,000-912,000) additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050 under current control levels. Contrary to the prevailing focus on ecological mechanisms, extreme weather events emerge as the primary driver of increased risk, accounting for 79% (50-94%) of additional cases and 93% (70-100%) of additional deaths. Most increases stem from intensification in existing endemic areas rather than range expansion, with significant regional variation in impact. These results highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient malaria control strategies and robust emergency response systems to safeguard progress towards malaria eradication.
-
Journal articleFaria N, 2026,
Detection of dengue virus serotype 2 in local Aedes aegypti populations, Madeira Island, Portugal, 2025
, Parasites and Vectors, ISSN: 1756-3305 -
Journal articleHemmings S, Varaden D, Barnes J, et al., 2026,
Diversity analysis of indoor and outdoor fungal bioaerosols in UK households: a longitudinal study
, The Lancet Microbe, ISSN: 2666-5247
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
Contact us
For any enquiries related to the MRC Centre please contact:
Scientific Manager
Susannah Fisher
mrc.gida@imperial.ac.uk
External Relationships and Communications Manager
Dr Sabine van Elsland
s.van-elsland@imperial.ac.uk